I 摘要 随着成都市龙泉驿区“世界现代田园城市”土地综合整治项目和创建“国家 级生态区工作”的全面启动，龙泉城乡统筹和城镇化的发展进入了加速时代。为 满足龙泉驿区城乡统筹协调发展，均衡城镇化建设，分流周边道路的交通量缓解 交通压力、提升道路承载力，完善项目区域路网建设，改善城乡结合部交通和居 住环境，加快城市化建设进程，拟进行龙洪大道同安段工程的建设，由此增加一 条穿越成渝高速的交通要道，使同安镇与龙泉驿区形成紧密的结合，促使同安镇 的城镇化发展，高速发展龙泉驿片区的经济。 龙洪大道同安段建设工程项目的可行性研究正是基于本人在华西工程设计建 设有限公司的工作实践以及工程建设和管理等方面的经验，按照成都龙泉驿经济 技术开发区建设发展有限公司对龙泉城乡统筹和城镇化发展的总体规划以及龙洪 大道市政工程项目的建议和要求，提出“龙洪大道同安段建设工程项目可行性研 究”的探讨和分析。本文将采用工程管理、项目管理、可行性研究论证以及风险 评估等方面的相关理论和方法对龙洪大道同安段建设工程项目进行可行性方面的 研究论证。 本文共涉及六个方面的内容，首先在介绍了本文研究背景及意义的基础上， 对可行性研究方面的相关理论与国内外研究发展现状和研究的内容、方法及技术 路线进行必要的阐述；然后从项目的建设现状及条件、建设内容及工程量、项目 管理及实施计划的角度出发对报告研究的龙洪大道同安段建设工程项目的概况进 行介绍，并阐明项目建设的必要性；再然后根据道路工程投资建设的特点，在项 目现状交通调查与分析的基础上，通过项目交通预测方法对项目的交通量和通行 能力进行了分析与预测；紧接着重点从项目建设方案、环境分析与节能评价、项 目建设可能存在的风险评估分析的角度对项目方案进行可行性论证；同时还从投 资估算及资金筹措、国民经济评价、社会效益等角度对其项目的综合效益进行评 价分析；最终得出龙洪大道同安段建设工程项目可行性研究的结论。 从某种程度上来说，本文提出对龙洪大道同安段建设工程项目的可行性研究 探讨，可以为相关企业的投资决策和施工建设提供重要的参考。 关键词，道路工程，工程建设，项目管理，可行性研究，风险评价ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT As longquanyi district of chengdu land comprehensive improvement project of the world modern garden city and the creation of national ecological work full launch, longquan in accelerating era of urban and rural areas as a whole and the development of urbanization. To satisfy longquanyi district overall coordination development between urban and rural areas, balanced urbanization construction, the traffic of surrounding roads to ease traffic pressure, improve road capacity, improve the project region road network construction, improve the integration of urban and rural transportation and living environment, to speed up the urbanization process, proposed Long Hong avenue deep period of project construction, hence increasing a crossing the chengdu-chongqing high-speed roads, make deep town and form close combination of longquanyi district, make deep urbanization development, in the town of Long Quanyi area economy high speed development. Longhong Avenue Tongan section of the construction project feasibility study is based on my Huaxi Engineering Design and Construction Co., Ltd. work practice and engineering construction and management and other aspects of experience, in accordance with the Chengdu Longquan Yi Economic and Technological Development Zone Construction and Development Co., Ltd. on Longquan urban and rural areas Overall planning and urbanization development planning and Longhong Avenue municipal project proposals and requirements, put forward Longhong Avenue Tongan section of the construction project feasibility study discussion and analysis. The paper will use the relevant theories and methods of engineering management, project management, feasibility study and risk assessment, and make a feasibility study on the construction project of Tonghong section of Longhong Avenue. On the basis of introducing the background and significance of the research, this paper elaborates the present situation and the research content, the method and the technical route of the research and development at home and abroad. Then, according to the needs of the research on the project management, Feasibility studies and other related theories and methods to summarize and facilitate the follow-up to carry out the project feasibility study to provide guidance and reference; and then from the project construction status and conditions, construction content and project volume, projectABSTRACT III management and implementation plan point of view This paper introduces the general situation of the construction project of Tonghong section of Longhong Avenue, and clarifies the necessity of project construction. Then, according to the characteristics of investment and construction of road construction, this paper focuses on the analysis and forecasting of project traffic volume, project construction plan, environmental analysis And energy-saving evaluation and other aspects of the project program feasibility study; also from the investment estimates and financing, comprehensive economic evaluation, social benefits from the perspective of the investment benefits of its project analysis; also from the project risk management point of view of its project The construction of risk identification, assessment and prevention of response to the evaluation and analysis of the final Longhong Avenue Tongan section of the construction project feasibility study conclusions. To some extent, this paper puts forward the feasibility study of Tonghong section construction project of Longhong Avenue, which can provide important reference for investment decision and construction of related enterprises. Key words，Road engineering, engineering construction, project management, feasibility study, risk assessment目录 IV 目录 第一章 绪论.................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 报告研究的背景及意义..................................................................................... 1 1.2 相关理论及国内外研究发展现状..................................................................... 2 1.2.1 项目管理知识理论与方法 ...................................................................... 2 1.2.2 项目可行性研究理论与方法 .................................................................. 3 1.2.3 国内外的研究发展现状 .......................................................................... 4 1.3 研究的内容、方法及技术路线......................................................................... 7 1.3.1 研究的内容 .............................................................................................. 7 1.3.2 研究的方法 .............................................................................................. 8 1.3.3 研究的技术路线 ...................................................................................... 8 第二章 龙洪大道同安段建设工程项目概况.............................................................. 10 2.1 项目简介........................................................................................................... 10 2.2 项目建设的现状及条件....................................................................................11 2.2.1 项目所在地社会经济与发展情况 ..........................................................11 2.2.2 项目土地利用现状与规划 ......................................................................11 2.2.3 自然条件和地震烈度区划 ......................................................................11 2.2.4 工程地质资料分析 ................................................................................. 12 2.3 项目建设内容及主要工程数量 ....................................................................... 14 2.3.1 项目建设内容 ......................................................................................... 14 2.3.2 主要工程数量 ........................................................................................ 14 2.4 项目管理及实施计划 ....................................................................................... 18 2.4.1 项目管理目标及任务 ............................................................................. 18 2.4.2 项目实施方案 ......................................................................................... 18 2.4.3 项目工作分解 ......................................................................................... 18 2.4.4 项目进度计划 ......................................................................................... 19 2.4.5 项目组织管理 ......................................................................................... 20 2.5 项目建设的必要性 ........................................................................................... 21 2.6 本章小结 ........................................................................................................... 23 第三章 龙洪大道同安段建设工程项目交通量分析及预测...................................... 24 3.1 项目现状交通调查与分析............................................................................... 24目录 V 3.1.1 交通现状 ................................................................................................. 24 3.1.2 交通量调查 ............................................................................................. 24 3.2 项目交通预测方法........................................................................................... 25 3.2.1 预测特征年 ............................................................................................. 25 3.2.2 出行分析 ................................................................................................. 25 3.2.3 交通量预测结果 ..................................................................................... 26 3.3 项目道路通行能力分析................................................................................... 27 3.3.1 设计小时通行量的确定 ......................................................................... 27 3.3.2 通行能力分析 ......................................................................................... 27 3.3.3 通行能力的确定 ..................................................................................... 28 3.3.4 服务水平的确定 ..................................................................................... 29 3.4 本章小结 ........................................................................................................... 29 第四章 龙洪大道同安段建设工程项目方案可行性分析.......................................... 30 4.1 项目建设方案分析........................................................................................... 30 4.1.1 项目总体设计思路 ................................................................................ 30 4.1.2 项目设计方案 ........................................................................................ 30 4.1.3 道路工程方案对比分析 ........................................................................ 32 4.1.4 桥涵工程方案对比分析 ........................................................................ 34 4.1.5 排水工程方案对比分析 ........................................................................ 36 4.1.6 改河（沟）工程方案分析 .................................................................... 37 4.2 项目环境分析与节能评价 ............................................................................... 38 4.2.1 项目建设环境影响分析 ........................................................................ 38 4.2.2 项目建设环境保护措施 ........................................................................ 38 4.2.3 项目建设节能评价 ................................................................................ 39 4.3 项目建设风险评估分析................................................................................... 40 4.3.1 项目风险的识别 .................................................................................... 41 4.3.2 项目风险的评价 .................................................................................... 43 4.3.3 项目风险评价的建议 ............................................................................. 46 4.3.4 项目风险的防范策略 ............................................................................. 47 4.3.5 项目风险的应对建议 ............................................................................. 48 4.4 本章小结 ........................................................................................................... 49 第五章 龙洪大道同安段建设工程项目综合效益可行性分析.................................. 50 5.1 项目投资估算及资金筹措............................................................................... 50目录 VI 5.1.1 项目投资估算的依据和标准 ................................................................ 50 5.1.2 项目其他费用的计取 ............................................................................ 50 5.1.3 项目资金筹措及应用 ............................................................................ 51 5.1.4 项目总投资估算 .................................................................................... 51 5.2 项目综合经济评价 ........................................................................................... 56 5.2.1 经济评价的依据和方法 ........................................................................ 56 5.2.2 项目经济费用效益分析 ........................................................................ 56 5.2.3 项目经济费用敏感性分析 .................................................................... 59 5.3 项目社会效益与社会环境影响评估分析 ....................................................... 59 5.3.1 项目社会效益分析 ................................................................................ 59 5.3.2 项目社会环境影响评估分析 ................................................................ 60 5.4 本章小结 ........................................................................................................... 61 第六章 结论及建议...................................................................................................... 62 6.1 主要结论 ........................................................................................................... 62 6.2 问题及建议 ....................................................................................................... 62 致谢................................................................................................................................ 64