I 摘要 中国物流业的迅猛发展和中国的电子商务的爆发式增长，给物流业带来 旺盛的需求刺激，进而带动国内仓储投资逐年保持高速增长。仓储投资的高 速增长的结果是，作为仓库运作的常用物流操作设备的叉车，在中国增长极 为快速，中国已经成为全球最大的叉车制造基地，同时中国每年新增叉车数 量达到 30 万台(2012 年物流业使用的叉车达到 150 万台)，然而来自美国和德 国的统计数据显示，严重的叉车安全事故每年数以万计，导致巨额财产损失 和严重的人员伤亡。虽然家用汽车的主动安全系统得到了长足的发展，但是 叉车主动安全系统仅仅处于拓荒时期，目前国内市场尚未发现有针对叉车安 全的碰撞预警系统销售。叉车安全配件市场具有巨大潜力，为满足市场需求， 同时在进行竞争分析后，拟组建公司 HanSafety，向市场推出该公司设计的超 越国外竞争对手的高性价比产品。 本文将商业计划书分为外部分析、竞争分析、市场分析、营销计划、运 营计划、财务计划几部分。HanSafety 公司立志于做叉车安全行业的小米，向 客户提供高性价比的创新产品。通过外部分析、竞争分析，本文得出结论， HanSafety 公司需要采取蓝海战略，向市场提供如下产品， 该产品具有利用传感器自动探测碰撞风险，在碰撞风险来临的时候，通 过声光提醒驾驶员，并且可以干预驾驶，进行减速，同时集成 WIFI 模块和 行车记录仪，行车记录仪的画面可以在液晶显示屏上同步显示，扩大驾驶员 的视野。WIFI 将可接入仓库的局域网，使录像数据可远程备份、并提供远程 监控和操作的可能性。 通过向行业专业人士发放问卷，调查结果显示多数专业人士对叉车碰撞 预警系统有浓厚的兴趣，都认可叉车智能化是未来趋势，并愿意向公司及客 户推荐购买。同时通过调查，我们了解到客户针对各种功能的叉车碰撞预警 系统的心理价位，我们也通过邮件询问到国外竞争对手的产品售价，综合所摘要 II 有信息，我们对产品进行了超越消费者期望的定价，同时也确保 HanSafety 公司有利可图。也了解到潜在客户偏好的购买渠道。 随后利用 STP 理论和 4P 理论分析了叉车安全产品所面临的市场，确定 了 HanSafety 公司的叉车碰撞预警系统的目标市场、定位以及其 4P 战略。并 对产品的销量进行了预测，为后续财务预测奠定了基础。在运营计划一章， 确定了 HanSafety 公司的运营目标，包括公司筹建、官网建设、电商系统上 线、年度销售目标和产品开发等。同时列举了运营计划和里程碑，介绍了公 司核心管理和技术团队。最后论述了精益创业（精益开发）。最后过渡到财务 预测，财务预测显示基于 110 万人民币的投资的情况下，5 年的现金流现值 超过 121 万人民币，第 5 年的投资回报率达到 452%，5 年之后的所有者权益 达到 1448.4 万人民币。财务预测数据肯定了该项目的投资价值。最后，对此 项目所面临的风险进行了阐述并提出了应对机制。 关键词 碰撞预警系统 商业计划 财务预测Abstract III ABSTRACT The rapid development of logistics and e-commence in China increases the demand for logistics service by striving amount, as the result of it, the domestic investment to warehouses construction keeps high speed, which leads to dramatically increasing of forklift in China which has become one of the biggest manufacture base in the world, around 300,000 new forklift are sold in China per year while more than 1.5 million forklifts were running in China in year 2012. However, Statistics data from USA and Germany implies that heavy injuries from forklift accidents amount to dozen of thousands cases per year and caused high cost and serious people injuries. While the proactive safety system for cars industry has got good development, that for forklift is just beginning, the safety products for forklift in China domestic market is vast, in order to fulfill this market demand, this paper plans to set up a company called HanSafety which will launch their designed overwhelming products with high performance-price ration comparing with the competitors out of China market. This paper is consists of external analysis, competitive analysis, market research, marketing plan, operation plan and finance plan. HanSafety is committed to become the XIAOMI style company in the forklift safety industry by providing creative products. Based on the analysis, HanSafety is convinced to take the strategy of Blue Sea, and launch the market with below products: This product can detect the risk of colliding with sensors and remind the driver with flash or color signal, and also can take over the driving to stop it, at the same time, the safety device will integrate the camera and WIFI module, the picture of video can show on the displayer for better driver view. The WIFI module allows the device link with the warehouse network and the video can be backed up on the cloud and the remote control and monitor is possible.Abstract IV By issuing the market search questionnaire to forklift industry people, the research result shows the public has strong interests in the forklift safety device and agree s that the intelligent forklift equipped with sensors are the trend of future, also are willing to recommend to their own companies and their customers to buy the device. The proper price of the device in their mind is also collected. And then we get the pricelist from competitors who provide safety products. By integrating all the information, we define our selling price which exceeds the expectation of customers. The favored purchasing channel is also identified. And then the target market, positioning, and 4P strategy are generated with the STP theory and 4P theory. The coming sales forecast allowed the finance forecast. In the chapter of operation plan, the operation objective is defined, including company set up, website construction, e-commerce system going life, yearly sales goal and product development. The operation plan and milestones are also listed, management and technical team are introduced. Finally it comes the stage of finance part which reveals the net present value for next 5 years is over 1.21 million RMB based on 1.1 million investment, the return on investment(ROI) in the fifth year reaches 452%, the equity reaches 14.484 million RMB finally. The result of finance forecast verified the feasibility of this investment. Lastly, the risk and the counter-measure is clarified. Wang Hua (MBA) Supervised by Professor: Wu XiaoJun Keywords: Collision warning system, business plan, finance forecast目录 - V - 目录 摘要........................................................... I ABSTRACT ...................................................... III 第 1 章 绪论 .................................................... 1 1.1 项目的背景 ....................................................1 1.2 项目的意义 ....................................................6 1.3 文献综述 ......................................................7 1.4 报告内容及结构 ................................................9 1.5 本章小结 ....................................................10 第 2 章 项目概要................................................ 11 2.1 公司的组建 ...................................................11 2.2 公司的使命和愿景.............................................11 2.3 公司的标志和网站.............................................12 2.4 公司的产品及解决方案.........................................13 2.5 公司的核心竞争力.............................................15 2.6 本章小结 ....................................................15 第 3 章 外部分析................................................ 17 3.1 SLEPT 分析 ...................................................17 3.2 波特五力分析 .................................................21 3.3 总结，机会与威胁 ............................................23 3.4 本章小结 ....................................................26 第 4 章 竞争战略................................................ 27 4.1 竞争对手及其优劣势...........................................27 4.2 SWOT 分析 ....................................................30 4.3 老子与蓝海战略 ..............................................31 4.4 公司的战略选择 ..............................................32 4.5 本章小结 ....................................................34 第 5 章 市场分析................................................ 35目录 - VI - 5.1 营销调研问卷设计、发放和回收 ................................35 5.2 调查问卷分析及结论...........................................37 5.3 企业市场营销分析.............................................41 5.4 国内市场规模分析.............................................42 5.5 仓库安全咨询业务.............................................43 5.6 本章小结 .....................................................44 第 6 章 营销计划................................................ 45 6.1 定位理论与 STP 分析 ..........................................45 6.2 4P 理论与营销策略分析 ........................................47 6.3 销量预测 ....................................................53 6.4 本章小结 ....................................................54 第 7 章 运营计划................................................ 55 7.1 运营目标 ....................................................55 7.2 组织结构图与运营团队 ........................................56 7.3 运营计划与里程碑 ............................................58 7.4 人力资源计划与成本 ..........................................58 7.5 精益创业 ....................................................59 7.6 本章小结 ....................................................60 第 8 章 财务计划................................................ 61 8.1 启动资金 ....................................................61 8.2 关键财务假设 ................................................63 8.3 成本费用分析 ................................................64 8.4 损益表预测 ..................................................65 8.5 现金流量表预测 ..............................................67 8.6 资产负债表预测 ..............................................70 8.7 投资回报率分析 ..............................................72 8.8 净现值分析（NPV） ...........................................73 8.9 财务指标分析 ................................................74 8.10 风险分析及退出机制..........................................75 8.11 本章小结 ...................................................76目录 - VII - 第 9 章 执行概要................................................ 77 9.1 商机，产品及服务 ............................................77 9.2 取胜，如何竞争 ..............................................78 9.3 希望，财务潜力 ..............................................78 9.4 核心，管理团队 ..............................................79 9.5 本章小结 ....................................................79