伴随“一带一路”国家战略的提出，“走出去”战略进一步深化， 更多的企业开始引入国际化战略，纷纷把市场和发展瞄准到广阔的海外 国家。我国企业的海外市场更加多元化和高端化，越来越多的企业开始 投资海外市场。电力一直以来都是我国企业在海外的重要目标市场，从 成套设备出口，到工程总承包，进而逐步踏足海外电厂投资运营，在不 断深入开发的同时企业面临的项目风险也与日俱增。我国从事海外电力 投资和运营的国有企业由于自身国际投资综合能力差，运营海外电厂经 验有限，因此在投资运营方面面临着巨大风险。本文通过说明我国企业 采用的海外电力投资可行性研究的方式和流程，针对我国企业海外电力 投资可行性研究经济评价中存在的问题，通过实例研究，分析了问题的 所在并提出了改进的方法和思路，为“走出去”企业海外电力投资可行 性研究提供了借鉴和思路。 本文首先讲述了近些年“走出去”企业海外电力市场投资情况及普 遍存在的问题，进而引出海外投资决策的依据——可行性研究报告的重 要性，进一步提出“走出去”企业的项目投资可行性报告在项目经济评 价方面普遍存在问题，即众多人为主观因素扭曲了主要估值要素的选取， 同时对估值要素数据的选取采用倾向性论证，因而造成项目经济评价的 严重偏差，最终导致项目评估脱离科学论证的范畴。本文特别选取工作 中的实际案例来说明并分析了该项目估值的偏差及存在的问题，通过对 案例中不同估值要素的选择和修正，通过情景分析和敏感性分析，对比项目估值的变化，证明了其中存在的严重问题。同时在分析过程中也给 出了海外电力投资项目估值要素甄别的方法和思路，为我国企业海外电 力投资项目经济评价提出了建议。 本文主要通过对海外电力投资项目可行性研究中经济评价的分析， 对“走出去”企业海外电力投资可行性研究中项目估值的客观性，真实 性提出了质疑和建议，希望对“走出去”企业海外电力投资的健康发展 有一定促进作用。 关键词，海外电力投资，可行性研究，经济评价，项目风险THE FEASIBILITY RESEARCH OF OVERSEAS POWER INVESTMENT: THE VALUATION ANALYSIS OF SOME COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION PROJECT ABSTRACT Along with the presentation of “One Belt and One Road” national strategy and the further deepening of “going abroad strategy”, more and more enterprises begin to introduce the internationalization strategy, focusing on the overseas market. The overseas markets of our national enterprises are more and more diversified and high-end, and many enterprises begin to invest in the overseas market. Electricity has always been an important overseas market of our national enterprises, which ranges from the export of complete sets of equipment to the general contracting of the projects, and further to the foreign investment of the power plants’ operation. The risks of such movements that the enterprises face are also growing. China’s state- owned enterprises that engaged in overseas power investment and operation are facing huge risks due to their poor comprehensive ability of investment and lack of experience running an overseas power plant. In this article, through the analysis of the overseas electricity power investment’s feasibility study evaluation, we demonstrate the existing problems of the feasibility of investing in the overseas electricity power, and further analyzes the causes of the existing problems and their improvement methods through some study ofactual examples, which provides reference and ideas for the feasibility study of the “going abroad” overseas electricity power investment. The thesis first describes the recent overseas electricity power investment situation of the “going abroad” enterprises and their problems, which brings the basis of overseas investment decisions—the feasibility study report. Then the thesis raises the common problems concerning the economic evaluation of the enterprises’ project investment feasibility report, which is many people subjectively distort the selection of main factors of valuation, resulting in the serious deviation of the project’s economic evaluation, and finally leading to the project evaluation out of the category of scientific. This thesis especially selects the actual cases to demonstrate and analyze the deviation of project evaluation and the existing problems. Moreover, this thesis compare the changes of project evaluation and demonstrate the existing serious problem in the project evaluation through the selection of different valuation factors in actual cases and amendment and also through the scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis. At the same time, the thesis also provides the method of screening the main factors when conducting the economic evaluations in overseas electricity power investment project, which provides some advice for our national enterprises in the overseas economic evaluation of the power project investment. This thesis provides some requirements and suggestions for the objectivity and authenticity of the study of overseas electricity power investment’s feasibility through the analysis of the appraisement of the overseas electricity power investment project, wishing to promote the sound development of the “going abroad” enterprise’s overseas power investment.KEY WORDS: overseas power investment, feasibility study, economic evaluation, project risk目录 前言 ............................................................................ 1 第一章 绪论..................................................................... 2 1.1.问题的提出及研究的必要性..................................................... 2 1.2.研究的目的及意义............................................................. 4 1.3.现阶段国内外研究综述......................................................... 5 1.3.1 国内研究综述 ............................................................... 5 1.3.2 国外研究综述 ............................................................... 7 1.4.研究内容及研究方法........................................................... 8 1.4.1 研究内容 ................................................................... 8 1.4.2 研究方法 ................................................................... 8 第二章 项目经济评价简介......................................................... 10 2.1.项目投资经济评价的内涵...................................................... 10 2.2.项目经济评价的内容和指标.................................................... 10 2.3.项目经济评价的主要方法...................................................... 13 第三章 海外电力项目投资概况..................................................... 14 3.1 我国电力产业发展现状........................................................ 14 3.2 国内电力投资概况及存在的问题................................................ 14 3.3 我国海外电力投资现状及发展趋势.............................................. 15 3.4 我国企业海外电力项目经济评价现状............................................ 17 第四章 海外电力投资案例分析..................................................... 19 4.1 项目概况 ................................................................... 19 4.1.1 项目背景 .................................................................. 19 4.1.2 土耳其项目投资潜在风险 .................................................... 21 4.2 案例原有经济评价说明........................................................ 23 4.2.1 E 公司提供的经济评价说明................................................... 23 4.2.2 S 公司修正后的经济评价说明................................................. 23 4.3 项目隐藏风险对经济评价的影响................................................ 28 4.3.1 工程投资 .................................................................. 29 4.3.2 考虑上网电价变化 .......................................................... 294.3.3 考虑运营期社会不稳定因素 .................................................. 37 4.4 项目投资经济评价总结........................................................ 40 4.5 计算明细附表 ............................................................... 41 第五章 总结与展望............................................................... 45 5.1 总结 ....................................................................... 45 5.2 展望 ....................................................................... 45