随着政策监管的不断完善、经济环境的好转、技术的创新、盈利模式的改革，中国 网络游戏行业进入了一个新的高速发展期。随之而来的是更激烈的竞争，行业必须寻找 新的发展方向和契机。 网页游戏（又称 web game）的发展推向高潮，凭借免安装，可玩性强、上手容易、 游戏稳定、交流方便、扩展性高的特点，将撼动客户端游戏在网络游戏产业方面的龙头 老大位置，并且引领行业发展的新方向。 随着中国网络环境的优化，制约网页游戏的客观条件将会被消除。网页游戏将从情 节单一、画面粗糙的设计制作方向，向高层次的内容丰富、画面绚丽的方向发展， 3D 更被认为是网页游戏取代在线游戏的重要标志。 本文将以一个实际正在开发的并且计划推出市场的网页游戏《时空》（暂定名）作 为研究主体，以项目及产品介绍、项目发展计划、行业市场分析、环境分析、消费者行 为、盈利模式分析、营销模式、财务和融资以及拟建公司组织结构方面作为分述，拟定 一份商业策划书。 本文描述当前网络游戏市场和环境分析，利用 PEST 和 SWOT 分析方法分析本游戏 项目的前景。接着对消费者行为中，总结出网络游戏和网页游戏的异同点，并对中国网 络游戏的盈利模式归类和分析，提出这两方面对游戏开发的影响。将研究结果结合 4P 营销模式，提出《时空》项目的营销模式。运用组织机构设定的观点，提出项目拟建公 司的组织架构。最后，在财务和融资方面，流出项目的投资计划和资金筹集方案，利用 一定的假设条件，预测项目的财务状况，并运用项目财务指标分析、敏感性分析来验证 项目的可行性。 关键词，网络游戏；网页游戏；商业策划书；营销模式Abstract Develop scheduled time with the fact that ceaselessness that policy oversees has perfected , economy environment improvement , technology pattern reformation being innovative , gaining a profit of, Chinese online game industry have entered a new high speed. Competition being that up to but coming to be more fierce, Chinese online game industry must seek new development direction and turning point. Development of web game deduces to the climax , dispenses with by means of Web page installation , the characteristic may play with nature beginning to stabilize easy to play by force , easy to communicate, expanding highly, will shake a customer holding the game leading enterprise location in the field of network game estate , guide the new direction that industry develops to be. With network environment of Chinese optimization, the objective condition restricting Web game is eliminated the meeting. Secondary circumstance of Web game general is unitary, rough tableau design fabrication direction, enriches to high-level content, florid direction of tableau develops, 3D are considered as a important sign that Web game substitutes online game. The main body of a book is looked on the game “space-time”(tentative name) being development and planning Web page debuting a marketplace with a reality as studying the main body. Use the project management and the product introduce, the project develops the plan, industries analyses, environment analysis, Consumer Behavior, gain a profit of the pattern is analytical, service to plan a book as well as the pattern, financial affairs and financing intending to build company framework of organization aspect as mark, stating , designing a commerce. The marketplace and environment describing that the current network plays analyse the main body of a book, make use of PEST and SWOT analysis method to analyse game project prospect. Proceed to be hit by to Consumer Behavior, the similarities and differences summing up out online game and Web page game burns, pattern grouping brings forward an impact of this liang of aspect over game exploitation to online game of Chinese gaining a profit of and with analysis. Pattern will study result sells a pattern combining with 4 P, bringing forward the space-time project to service. The viewpoint that the at last, the organization wielding organization set up, the organization frame suggesting that the project intends to found a company. And in the field of financial affairs and the financing, outflow project investment plan and fund raise a scheme , make use of certain hypothesis condition,the finacial status forecasting a project, the financial targets wielding a project analyses, sensitivity analysis comes to verify the project feasibility. Key words，On-line game；Web game；Business planning book；Marketing mode目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... II 图表清单...............................................................................................................................VIII 第一章 绪 论..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 文献综述......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 消费者行为分析...................................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 盈利模式研究.......................................................................................................... 3 1.3 报告研究内容及方法..................................................................................................... 7 第二章 项目情况介绍和发展计划........................................................................................10 2.1 项目总体宗旨............................................................................................................... 10 2.2 产品概述....................................................................................................................... 10 2.3 项目特色....................................................................................................................... 11 2.4 项目研发时间预估....................................................................................................... 11 2.5 近期具体发展规划....................................................................................................... 12 2.6 项目盈利前景预测....................................................................................................... 13 第三章 中国网络游戏行业和环境分析................................................................................14 3.1 网络游戏的定义和分类............................................................................................... 14 3.1.1 网络游戏的定义和分类........................................................................................ 14 3.1.2 网页游戏的技术和发展........................................................................................ 15 3.2 中国网络游戏行业规模综述和发展预测................................................................... 16 3.2.1 中国网络游戏发展状况......................................................................................... 16 3.2.2 中国网络游戏市场规模综述和预测.................................................................... 17 3.2.3 中国网络游戏市场格局......................................................................................... 18 3.3 中国网页游戏行业规模综述和发展预测................................................................... 193.3.1 中国网页游戏发展状况........................................................................................ 19 3.3.2 中国网页游戏市场和客户规模综述和预测........................................................ 20 3.3.3 中国网页游戏市场格局分布................................................................................ 22 3.4 外部宏观环境（PEST）分析...................................................................................... 23 3.4.1 政策因素................................................................................................................ 23 3.4.2 经济因素................................................................................................................ 24 3.4.3 社会因素................................................................................................................ 25 3.4.4 技术因素................................................................................................................ 26 3.5 项目的内部（SWOT）分析........................................................................................ 27 3.5.1 优势分析................................................................................................................ 27 3.5.2 劣势分析................................................................................................................ 28 3.5.3 机会分析................................................................................................................ 29 3.5.4 威胁分析................................................................................................................ 31 3.6 行业和环境分析对项目的影响................................................................................... 32 第四章 消费者行为分析和盈利模式研究............................................................................34 4.1 网页游戏与网络游戏的消费者行为共同点分析....................................................... 34 4.1.1 消费者需求和动机分析........................................................................................ 34 4.1.2 网络游戏对消费者的替代规律分析.................................................................... 36 4.1.3 网络游戏的消费者边际效用递减分析................................................................ 37 4.2 网页游戏与网络游戏的消费者行为分析差别........................................................... 38 4.2.1 安装的麻烦带来的游戏消费者行为差别............................................................ 38 4.2.2 安装的限制带来的游戏消费者行为差别............................................................ 40 4.3 中国现有网页游戏盈利模式分析............................................................................... 43 4.3.1 中国网页游戏盈利模式列举................................................................................ 43 4.3.2 现有收费方式的归类以及消费者分析................................................................ 45 4.4 消费者行为、游戏盈利模式研究对项目开发的影响............................................... 46 第五章 项目的营销模式........................................................................................................51 5.1 产品（Product）——产品设计和客户服务 .............................................................. 51 5.1.1 产品设计................................................................................................................ 515.1.2 客户服务................................................................................................................ 52 5.2 渠道（Place)................................................................................................................. 54 5.2.1 游戏平台合作........................................................................................................ 54 5.2.2 支付方式设计........................................................................................................ 54 5.3 促销（Promotion） ...................................................................................................... 56 5.4 定价（Pricing） ........................................................................................................... 57 5.4.1 收费模式分析........................................................................................................ 57 5.4.2 收费模式策划........................................................................................................ 59 第六章 拟建公司组织介绍....................................................................................................61 6.1 企业文化....................................................................................................................... 61 6.2 公司组织结构............................................................................................................... 61 6.3 公司管理权责描述....................................................................................................... 61 第七章 财务与融资................................................................................................................64 7.1 项目的投资计划........................................................................................................... 64 7.2 融资方式和退出........................................................................................................... 65 7.2.1 融资方式................................................................................................................ 65 7.2.2 退出方式................................................................................................................ 65 7.3 预计财务状况............................................................................................................... 66 7.3.1 计算条件假设........................................................................................................ 66 7.3.2 营业收入预测........................................................................................................ 68 7.3.3 净利润预测............................................................................................................ 69 7.3.4 现金流量分析........................................................................................................ 69 7.4 财务指标分析............................................................................................................... 70 7.4.1 净现值分析............................................................................................................ 70 7.4.2 投资回收期分析.................................................................................................... 70 7.5 敏感性分析................................................................................................................... 70 总结和展望..............................................................................................................................73