可行性研究在当今项目建设实施过程中所起的作用越来越重要，近年来随 着我国国民经济的高速增长和社会的稳定发展，各个行业新建项目的不断增多、 规模不断扩大，给可行性研究带来了发展空间，随着我国政府相关审批部门对项 目审批标准的提高，对项目是否科学、是否符合国家和地区发展要求、是否有很 好的市场前景都有明确的要求。在一定程度上加强项目可行性研究问题的关注， 因此，可行性研究逐渐成为了政府审批部门和投资方共同关注的热点和焦点。项 目可行性研究不仅会影响国家国民经济的健康发展，同时也直接关系到人民群众 的人身安全和财产安全。由于一些地区出现的盲目上项目，不考虑项目的可行性， 给政府和人民带来了无法挽回的损失，因此研究项目可行性研究问题具有重要的 现实意义。而可行性研究作为项目立项、审批、实施过程中的重要依据，无疑对 项目的顺利实施起着决定性的作用，因此，必须加强对项目的可行性理论和实际 应用的研究。 本文重点是阐述项目可行性研究理论和具体加油站租赁项目可行性研究实 例，即对可能存在的经营风险及其他政府相关程序经营风险进行可行性研究。目 的是通过可行性研究理论和加油站租赁项目的结合,降低加油站租赁项目的投资 风险，可行性研究主要在经济评价方面对项目进行盈亏平衡、敏感性全方面的分 析评估，对项目的具体实施提供了一个科学的指导依据，使项目更加具有科学的 操作性,最后提出加油站租赁项目的关键点，对加油站租赁项目可行性提出一些 建议和展望。 关键词: 加油站；可行性研究；经济评价；盈亏平衡2 ABSTRACT In the process of project construction, the role of feasibility study has become more and more important. In recent years, with China's national economic growth and the stable development of society, new projects in many industries have increased continuously and scale has unceasingly expanded, which brings the development space for feasibility study. China's relevant government departments of examination and approval raise the standards of project examination and approval which have specific requirements for the project about whether it is scientific or accords with the country and regional development requirements and has good market prospects. To a certain extent it strengthenes the research issues of project feasibility. Therefore, the feasibility study gradually becomes a hot issue of common concern for the government examination and approval departments and investors. Project feasibility study not only affects the healthy development of the national economy, but also directly relates to people's personal safety and property safety. As some areas rashly launch new projects without taken the feasibility of the project into consideration, it brings irreparable damage to the government and people. So project feasibility study has important practical significance. The feasibility study is an important basis for the process of project approval, examination and implementation and undoubtedly it has played a decisive role in the smooth implementation of the project. Therefore we must strengthen the theory and application research of the feasibility study. This paper emphasizes on explaining the project feasibility study theory and s feasibility study of specific gas station leasing projects, namely study of possible business risk and other relevant management risk of government program. The purpose is to reduce the gas station investment risk of leasing project through the combination of feasibility study theory and the gas station leasing project. Feasibility study mainly focuses on analysis evaluation of project break-even, sensitivity analysis of all aspects in economic evaluation. It provides a scientific basis for the concrete project implementation and makes the projects have more scientific operability. Finally it proposees key points of gas station rental items and puts forward some suggestions and prospects on the feasibility study of gas station leasing projects. Key words: gas station, feasibility study , economic evaluation, sensitivity analysis目 录 第一章 绪论..................................................................................................................1 1.1 问题的提出.............................................................................................................1 1.2 研究的背景.............................................................................................................3 1.2.1 可行性与经济评价研究概述.......................................................................5 1.2.2 项目可行性研究的重要性和作用...............................................................6 1.3 研究的主要内容和方法.........................................................................................8 1.3.1 研究的主要内容...........................................................................................8 1.3.2 研究的方法...................................................................................................8 第二章 项目可行性研究............................................................................................10 2.1 可行性研究概念...................................................................................................10 2.1.1 可行性研究的主要内容.............................................................................10 2.1.2 可行性研究的分析要点.............................................................................12 2.2 可行性研究的原理和方法....................................................................................12 2.2.1 项目投资成本和税收.................................................................................13 2.2.2 静态评价方法.............................................................................................13 2.2.3 动态评价方法.............................................................................................13 2.2.4 不确定分析.................................................................................................16 第三章 河北省 A 加油站租赁项目可行性研究.......................................................20 3.1 项目概述...............................................................................................................20 3.1.1 A 加油站租赁项目情况说明......................................................................20 3.1.2 地理位置.....................................................................................................20 3.1.3 拟租赁加油站主要情况.............................................................................20 3.1.4 加油站改造工程.........................................................................................20 3.1.5 总投资及资金筹措.....................................................................................21 3.2 问题和建议...........................................................................................................21 3.2.1 该项目面临的问题.....................................................................................21 3.2.2 对于该项目的建议.....................................................................................21 3.3 初步研究结论.......................................................................................................21 3.4 周边市场概述.......................................................................................................23 3.5 车流量及构成.......................................................................................................24 3.5.1 竞争对手.....................................................................................................24 3.5.2 车辆构成及进站率.....................................................................................243.5.3 加油站销量预测.........................................................................................25 3.6 拟租赁加油站资产及证照情况...........................................................................25 3.6.1 A 加油站介绍...........................................................................................25 3.6.2 加油站经营证照.........................................................................................25 3.6.3 主要设施.....................................................................................................27 3.7 改造工程描述.......................................................................................................27 3.7.1 标识改造.....................................................................................................27 3.7.2 其它工程改造说明.....................................................................................27 3.8 租赁后的经营策略...............................................................................................27 第四章 河北 A 加油站租赁项目经济评价...............................................................28 4.1 投资估计算和资金筹措.......................................................................................28 4.1.1 投资范围.....................................................................................................28 4.1.2 投资估算编制依据.....................................................................................28 4.1.3 投资估算.....................................................................................................28 4.1.4 资金筹措方案.............................................................................................29 4.2 经济评价基础数据及其说明...............................................................................29 4.2.1 产品价格.....................................................................................................29 4.2.2 计算期.........................................................................................................29 4.2.3 其他计算参数.............................................................................................29 4.2.4 评价结果.....................................................................................................30 4.3 主要财务评价报表...............................................................................................30 4.3.1 敏感性分析..................................................................................................30 4.3.2 盈亏平衡分析.............................................................................................33 4.4 风险分析和竞争力分析.......................................................................................35 4.4.1 风险分析.....................................................................................................35 4.4.2 竞争力分析.................................................................................................35 4.5 结论.......................................................................................................................35 第五章 结论及展望....................................................................................................37 5.1 结论.......................................................................................................................37 5.2 建议.......................................................................................................................37