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深圳机场旧航站楼改造为购物中心项目商业计划书DOC

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深圳机场新航站楼设计容量远满足现有客流规模及未来较长一段时间内的预计客 流增长数量。为降低运营成本,新航站楼投入使用之后,旧航站楼将关闭另作他用。本 文将就目前购物中心开发及运营管理的现状,对旧航站楼进行商业化改造的环境、市场 进行分析,对项目定位、经营模式、风险、筹资、成本、预期收益、项目组织和实施等 问题进行了研究。通过研究,为旧航站楼改造项目提供决策支持,帮助深圳机场综合利 用现有航站楼资源,实现深圳机场经济效益和社会效益的最大化。 报告内容分八章,第一章首先介绍研究背景,针对国内外机场商业地产开发与购物 中心理论的研究现状,对文献进行综述,提出研究目的、意义、方法和路线。第二章在 介绍购物中心起源、定义及分类模式之后,分析发展条件与效益,研究国内购物中心发 展趋势。第三章从区域环境、经济环境、商业地产市场和政策环境逐一进行分析,对所 在商圈进行研究,并对旧航站楼的情况做详细介绍。第四章评估了购物中心的市场前景, 剖析机场周边消费人群覆盖范围及市场定位,比较周边同类竞争者情况,并对该项目进 行 SWOT 分析。第五章对项目类型、名称进行定位,对商业经营业态、经营模式进行 设计,分析政策法规风险、市场风险、经营风险、财务风险和管理风险。第六章说明项 目设计规划装修方案,提出招商推广策略及组织管理架构。第七章首先对所需资金、成 本费用进行测算,论述资金来源渠道。测算项目投资成本费用、现金流量、净现值、内 涵报酬率等财务指标,并对项目进行敏感性分析和情景分析。第八章为全文总结和展望。 本章中采用文献资料研究法,搜集相关领域理论研究成果和商业数据。采用净现值法和 内含报酬率法进行项目投资决策分析。采用敏感性分析法和情景分析法评估项目风险承 受能力。 深圳机场旧航站楼商业改造项目-壹航名店城定位“时尚、家庭娱乐休闲购物中 心”,机场通过成立全资有限公司对该项目进行经营管理,所需资金通过自筹和发行债 券两种渠道,开发成本低,具有很强的盈利能力,是一个非常有前景商业项目。 关键词,机场商业地产;购物中心;商业计划;投资决策;项目风险II ABSTRACT The capacity of Shenzhen Airport's new terminal design far exceeds the existing passenger flow scale and the expected passenger flow growth for an extended period of time in the future. To reduce operating costs, the old terminal will be closed for other purposes when the new is available. According to the status quo of the shopping center's development and operation management, the thesis analyzes the environment and market of the old terminal's commercial transformation, and studies the problems of project location, business model, risk, financing costs, expected benefits, project organization, implementation, etc. Through research, the thesis aims to provide decision support for terminal renovation project and help Shenzhen Airport's utilization of the existing terminal resource to maximize its economic and social benefits. The thesis is divided into eight chapters. The first chapter introduces the research background first. Based on the research status of the domestic and foreign airports' commercial real estate development and the shopping center theory, it then presents a literature review and proposes the research purposes, significance, methods and routes. In the second chapter, after an introduction of the origin, definition and classification models of the shopping center, it analyzes the development condition and efficiency and studies the development trend of domestic shopping centers. The third chapter analyzes the regional environment, economic environment, commercial real estate market and policy environment one by one. Then it studies the business circle and makes a detailed description of the old terminal. Chapter IV assesses the prospects for the shopping center market, analyzes the consumer groups around the airport coverage and market positioning, compares the situations of the surrounding similar competitors and conducts SWOT analysis of the project. Chapter V positions the project type and name, designs the commercial business conditions and business models, and analyzes the policy risk, market risk, operational risk, financial risk and management risk. Chapter VI describes the program of the project's design, planning and renovation and proposes investment promotion strategy and organizational management structure. Chapter VII first estimates the necessary funds and costs and discusses the funding sources. Then it estimates the financial indicators such as project cost of investment, cash flow, net present value, internal rate of return and so on. And it conducts sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. Chapter VIII is the summary and outlook for the thesis. This chapter adopts literature research method to collect theoretical research and business data in relatedIII fields. Meanwhile, it adopts NPV and IRR methods to analyze the project investment decision and the methods of scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis to assess project risk tolerance. The business transformation project of Shenzhen Airport's old terminal - Airport Shopping Mall, is positioned as the mall of fashion, home entertainment and leisure . The airport conducts management through the establishment of a wholly-owned Limited Management, and raises the necessary funds in two channels, self-financing and issuing bonds. It is a very promising business project with low development costs and strong profitability. Keywords: Airport commercial real estate; Shopping Mall; Business plan; Investment decisions; Project riskIV 目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ...............................................................................................................................II 图表清单..................................................................................................................................IV 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景 ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究现状及文献综述 ..................................................................................................... 1 1.2.1 国外机场商业地产开发与购物中心理论研究现状.............................................. 1 1.2.2 国内机场商业地产开发与购物中心理论研究现状.............................................. 3 1.3 研究目的和意义 ............................................................................................................. 5 1.4 研究方法与路线 ............................................................................................................. 5 第二章 购物中心概念和发展分析..........................................................................................7 2.1 购物中心概念.................................................................................................................. 7 2.1.1 购物中心起源........................................................................................................... 7 2.1.2 购物中心定义.......................................................................................................... 7 2.1.3 购物中心分类综述................................................................................................... 8 2.2 购物中心发展条件和效益研究.................................................................................... 10 2.2.1 购物中心发展条件................................................................................................ 10 2.2.2 购物中心发展效益................................................................................................ 12 2.3 国内购物中心发展趋势 ............................................................................................... 14 2.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 16 第三章 深圳机场购物中心项目发展环境与旧航站楼情况介绍........................................17 3.1 深圳市情况简介与项目位置........................................................................................ 17 3.2 深圳市及宝安区经济发展情况分析 ........................................................................... 18 3.3 购物中心商业地产市场情况分析 ............................................................................... 19 3.3.1 深圳市商业地产总体情况介绍............................................................................ 19 3.3.2 机场购物中心所在商圈环境分析........................................................................ 21 3.4 项目政策环境 ............................................................................................................... 23 3.4.1 深圳航空城政策分析............................................................................................ 23V 3.4.2 深圳机场非航空业务的战略选择........................................................................ 24 3.5 深圳机场旧航站楼基本情况介绍................................................................................ 26 3.5.1 旧航站楼建设历史................................................................................................. 26 3.5.2 旧航站楼建筑分布及数据.................................................................................... 26 3.6 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 30 第四章 深圳机场购物中心项目调查分析............................................................................31 4.1 项目客户群分析 ........................................................................................................... 31 4.1.1 商圈购买力分析评估............................................................................................ 31 4.1.2 深圳市消费特征分析............................................................................................ 31 4.1.3 宝安区消费特征分析............................................................................................ 33 4.2 项目竞争者分析............................................................................................................ 35 4.3 项目 SWOT 分析.......................................................................................................... 36 4.3.1 项目优势分析........................................................................................................ 36 4.3.2 项目劣势分析........................................................................................................ 37 4.3.3 项目机会分析........................................................................................................ 37 4.3.4 SWOT 总结 ............................................................................................................ 38 4.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 39 第五章 深圳机场购物中心项目规划与风险评估................................................................40 5.1 项目类型定位 ............................................................................................................... 40 5.1.1 项目类型定位描述................................................................................................. 40 5.1.2 定位分析................................................................................................................ 40 5.2 项目名称与业态规划 ................................................................................................... 41 5.3 项目经营模式及改造工程说明.................................................................................... 42 5.4 项目风险分析及对策.................................................................................................... 42 5.4.1 政策法规风险及对策............................................................................................ 43 5.4.2 市场风险及对策.................................................................................................... 43 5.4.3 经营风险及对策.................................................................................................... 44 5.4.4 财务风险及对策.................................................................................................... 45 5.4.5 管理风险及对策.................................................................................................... 46 5.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 46VI 第六章 深圳机场购物中心项目组织和实施........................................................................47 6.1 项目设计规划装修 ....................................................................................................... 47 6.2 项目招商推广策划 ....................................................................................................... 50 6.3 项目组织管理架构 ....................................................................................................... 53 6.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 55 第七章 深圳机场购物中心项目筹资与投资决策分析........................................................56 7.1 项目资金预测与筹资途径 ........................................................................................... 56 7.2 项目投资成本费用及现金流量测算 ........................................................................... 57 7.3 项目投资净现值、内含报酬率测算 ........................................................................... 61 7.4 项目投资敏感性分析和情景分析 ............................................................................... 63 7.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 65 结论和展望..............................................................................................................................67 研究结论..............................................................................................................................67 本文的贡献..........................................................................................................................67 有待进一步研究的问题......................................................................................................68