我国是纺织和化纤生产大国，但产品结构单一，附加值较低，在世界特种纤维 生产技术快速发展的形势下，提高产品的技术含量和附加值，是极其紧迫和重要的， 同时也符合国家的产业政策。涤纶是化纤行业中产量和消费量最大的产品之一，而 黑色涤纶面料，在涤纶产品中占有很大比重。在涤纶生产聚合过程中直接加入碳黑， 实现原液着色，生产黑纤维，是目前世界上最先进的黑色差别化聚酯纤维的生产方 法，但目前在国内尚无大规模、连续化生产的经验。本项目拟采用原液着色的先进 技术，采用拥有完全自主知识产权的“低温短流程塔式连续聚酯技术”和装备，采 用全国产化直接纺高速纺丝机，使得从聚酯原料到黑丝产品整个工艺技术的无缝对 接，从而建设国内第一套原液着色差别化聚酯纤维的先进装置。 本文引用详实的资料，分析和预测了产品和原辅料的市场供求、产品价格等， 总结了产品的竞争优势，对各生产阶段中的可能的关键技术方案进行了全面比较， 并提出建议，初步选择一套适合于本项目实际的、技术先进的方案，作为本项目可 行性研究中经济分析的技术依据。报告中所有物料的消耗、公用工程的消耗、固定 投资的规模等，均依此方案作为依据。 本文对项目投资、生产成本费用和销售收入进行估算，完成“投资计划表”、“固 定资产折旧表”、“无形和递延资产摊销成本表”、“总成本估算表”、“还本付息财务 成本表”、“年税金、利润表”、“现金流量表”等，计算出贷款偿还期、投资回收期、 内部收益率和财务净现值等关键财务指标，并对影响项目的不确定因素进行分析， 对社会效益进行分析和评价。报告的最后部分对此项目提出了研究结论和建议，从 而为该项目的投资决策提供依据。 关键词，碳黑 原液着色 差别化 连续聚酯技术 可行性ABSTRACT China is a major textile and chemical fiber producer, but single variety of product, low added value will make us lag behind. In the event of worldwide rapid development of the differential product technology, it is urgent and important to enhancing the technical content and added value,and it is also accord with the industrial policy of our country. PET is one of the biggest production and consumption products of chemical fiber industry, and the black PET fabric takes a large proportion in PET products. Adding carbon black directly in the polymerization process to obtain colored liquid, and produce black fiber, is the most advanced black differentiated polyester fiber production method in the word, but there is no large-scale, continuous production experience in our country. GC INC has Liquid shader technology proprietary technology; Shanghai Juyou Chemical Engineer Co. Ltd has complete independent intellectual property rights low-temperature, short-process for tower Continuous polyester technology and equipment; Beijing Chonglee Machinery & Chemical Fiber Engineering Co. Ltd has global system of the advanced high-speed direct-spinning machine . The project aims at combining the companies' various technologies into a seamless joint from raw materials to black fiber, and building the first set of domestic advanced colored liquid differentiated polyester fiber devices. This paper analyzes and forecasts the products and raw materials market supply and demand relations, prices, etc, and concludes competing advantages of the products, compares potential key technologies of the production process comprehensively, quoting substantial information ,and gives out suggestions ,selects an available and advanced proposal fitting for the project as technological basis of the economical analysis of the feasibility study report .The consumption of all materials and utilities and the scale of the fixed investment base on the program. Work has been done in economical analysis of the report as following:estimating of the investment ,production costs and sales revenue estimates, completing the investment plan , depreciation of fixed assets , intangible and deferred assets amortization cost , the total cost estimate , financial servicing costs , taxes, profit report , and cash flow statements , etc, and calculating the repayment period of loans, investment payback period, internal rate of return ,financial of net present value, and other key financial indicators, and analyzing uncertain factors affecting the project, and analyzing and estimating social benefits. The end of the report put forward the conclusions andrecommendations of the project to provide a basis for investment decisions. KEY WORDS，carbon black, liquid coloring, differentiated, continuous technical for PET，feasibilityi 目 录 第一章 绪论........................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景..................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究的意义................................................................................................................. 1 1.3 本文研究内容............................................................................................................. 3 1.4 研究方法及技术路线................................................................................................. 3 1.4.1 研究方法 .............................................................................................................. 3 1.4.2 技术路线 .............................................................................................................. 4 第二章 工程项目可行性研究的基本理论........................................................................5 2.1 技术评价与选择原则................................................................................................. 5 2.2 产品和原料价格估算................................................................................................. 5 2.3 投资估算..................................................................................................................... 6 2.3.1 投资估算的内容 ................................................................................................. 6 2.3.2 投资估算的方法 ................................................................................................. 7 2.4 财务评价..................................................................................................................... 8 2.4.1 净现值法 ............................................................................................................. 9 2.4.2 内部收益率法 ..................................................................................................... 9 2.4.3 投资回收期法 ................................................................................................... 10 2.4.4 投资利润率 ....................................................................................................... 10 2.4.5 借款偿还期 ....................................................................................................... 11 2.5 敏感性分析 .............................................................................................................. 11 第三章 实证研究..............................................................................................................13 3.1 项目情况................................................................................................................... 13 3.1.1 项目简介 ............................................................................................................ 13 3.1.2 指导思想及原则 ................................................................................................ 13 3.1.3 建厂条件 ........................................................................................................... 14 3.2 技术可行性分析 ...................................................................................................... 18 3.2.1 生产规模 ............................................................................................................ 18 3.2.2 产品方案 ............................................................................................................ 18 3.2.3 核心工艺路线选择 ............................................................................................ 19ii 3.2.4 原辅料、公用工程消耗指标 ............................................................................ 23 3.2.5 能耗分析及节能措施 ........................................................................................ 25 3.2.6 环境保护、消防与职业安全卫生 .................................................................... 26 3.2.7 劳动定员 ............................................................................................................ 27 3.2.8 项目实施规划 .................................................................................................... 28 3.3 经济效益分析........................................................................................................... 29 3.3.1 产品价格预测及原料成本估算 ........................................................................ 29 3.3.2 投资估算 ............................................................................................................ 31 3.3.3 资金筹措 ............................................................................................................ 32 3.3.4 生产成本费用估算与销售收入估算 ................................................................ 32 3.4 财务评价................................................................................................................... 35 3.4.1 财务评价的依据及主要数据、参数 ................................................................ 35 3.4.2 效益及财务评价指标计算 ................................................................................ 35 3.5 不确定性分析........................................................................................................... 36 3.5.1 盈亏平衡分析 .................................................................................................... 36 3.5.2 敏感性分析 ........................................................................................................ 37 3.6 社会效益和社会影响分析....................................................................................... 38 第四章 研究结论与建议..................................................................................................40 4.1 研究结论................................................................................................................... 40 4.2 存在问题与风险....................................................................................................... 40 4.3 对策及建议............................................................................................................... 41