交通运输业是人类经济活动和社会生活所依托的重要基础产业，同 时也是能源消耗和温室气体排放所占比重最大的产业。在可持续发展的 战略条件下，如何综合、协调地发挥各种交通运输方式的优势，在满足 经济、社会发展需要的同时，避免其造成更大的土地、资源、环境成本， 实现交通运输的可持续发展，是摆在交通工作者面前的一项重要的研究 内容。 本文在较系统地提出了“小汽车专用高速铁路”运输方式“设想” 的基础上，对其可行性进行了研究。首先，对“小汽车专用高速铁路” 的特性进行了系统地分析，指出了它不同于现有几种交通运输方式的优 越性。接着，从小汽车的未来发展趋势和高速铁路技术入手，对小汽车 专用高速铁路的未来市场机会和主要技术机会进行了分析。其次，以模 拟的项目为背景，利用非集计分析方法和工程经济理论对其未来的使用 意向和财务投资盈利能力进行了评价分析。最后，利用嫡权评价法，将 小汽车专用高速铁路放在现有的交通运输方式体系中，对其进行了综合 比较评价研究。 研究结论表明:“小汽车专用高速铁路”作为一种环保、高效、安全 的“新”的运输方式，是基本可行的，其具有进一步深入研究的价值。 其有利于交通运输业可持续性发展，有助于政府的长远决策，具有较高 的实际意义和理论意义。 关键词:交通运输方式;可行性研究;机会研究;意向分析;财务评价 }b'If ABSTRACT Transportation is an important basic industry of human economic activity and social life, and also is one of largest share of industry of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. In the strategy of sustainable development, it has been being an important researching content that traffic researcher must face with, that how we integrated, coordinately exert all kinds of transportation modes advantages and how we realize transportation sustainable development in meeting the needs of economic and social development while avoiding’ its causing greater land, resources and environmental costs. A transportation mode conceive of specail high一speed railway of car is proposed systematicly in this paper, and a tentative study on the feasibility of it is carried on in detail. Firstly, characteristics of specail high一speed railway of car and advantages comparing with other vehicle have been analyzed detailedly in this paper. Secondly, the chance of market demand and the basic technology of specail high一speed railway of car have been discussed separately from developmental tendency of cars and technology of high一speed railway in the world. Thirdly, by an assumed example, disaggregate model is used to forecast people future intention to specail high一speed railway of car, and theory of engineering economy is used to demonstrate its financial feasibility. Lastly, through entropy weight decision making method, a comprehensive, comparative appraisal has been done under a condition of current traffic vehicle. Conclusion indicating, specail high一speed railway of car, as an environmental friendly and efficient new traffic vehicle, can meet future middle一distance and long-distance trips of cars to some extent. So it is feasible and significant to continue to research. The study on specail high一speed railway of car is benefit to sustainable development of our country transportation, to our government long-term decision一making. It has large practical and theory significance. Key words: transportation mode; feasibility research; market demand research; intention analysis; financial appraisal 悦 目录 摘要二，…‘..........................。........................，.................。工 ABSTRACT ...，....‘.................................。二。二。.。.…。.。.........II 第一章绪论 1.1研究的背景。....................................................................................1 1.2问题的提出….................................................................................. 3 1.3研究的目的和意义。.…。.，二。............................................................... 3 1.4研究的主要内容及结论................................................................... 4 1.5研究的思路...............。.。.，.，....................几。...............。5 第二章小汽车专用高速铁路 2.1涵义...........。.，。.…。.........。..........................，...............，6 2.2概念设计......................................................................................... 6 2.3通行能力估算..。二。.................................................................... 10 2.4特点............................................................................................... 11 2.5本章小结....................。…。…。。二，................................................18 第三章小汽车专用高速铁路未来机会研究 3.1小汽车发展政策..…。。.。二。.......................................................... 19 3.2小汽车保有量发展预测................................................................. 20 3.3小汽车大量发展带来的各方面影响。............................................. 32 3.4市场机会分析............................................................................... 38 3.5所需的高速铁路技术二，................................................................. 39 3.6高速铁路技术在国内外的发展情况.............................................. 43 3.7技术机会.分析............................................................................... 48 3.8本章小结….................................................................................... 50 第四章小汽车专用高速铁路未来使用意向(SP)分析 4.1非集计模型方法............................................................................ 51 4.2意向(STATED PREFERENCE)调查。................................................ 52 4.3数据分析....................................................................................... 54 4.4混合(MIXED) LOGIT模型.，......。.，，二。二，................................... 56 4.5模型的构造................................................................................... 57 4.6使用意向分担率分析..................................................................... 58 4.7本章小结.…。二，............................................................................... 60 第五章从建设者角度的评价 5.1评价的两个前提二，......................................................................... 61 5.2项目的特点二‘.........................。......。，二。......................... 61 5.3造价分析.。二。....................，.…，…。。...。.，二，.............................. 62 5.4收益分析....................................................................................... 66 5.5评价指标....................................................................................... 69 5.6评价及结论................................................................................... 69 5.7本章小结....................................................................................... 72 第六章综合评价 6.1评价模型建立.....。.............。........，.…，........。…。二‘二。...73 6.2评价指标的选取............................................................................ 74 6.3墒权评价法................................................................................... 81 6.4评价及结论.....。。二。................................................................... 83 6.5本章小结二， .................................................................................... 84 第七章结论与展望 7.1本文主要结论及创新..................................................................... 85 7.2需要进一步研究的问题................................................................. 86