I 摘要 中国从 80 年代引进空调生产线以来，经过 30 年的发展，已经成为世界最大 的空调制造国。中国房间空调器的产量 2017 年达到 17862 万台。国内消费量达到 8875 万台，出口 5244 万台，皆创历年新高。经过数年的淘汰赛，国内空调市场 竞争格局相对稳定，各个企业都在寻求新的突破口。 2016 年，以北京为首的北方 区域启动“煤改电”工程。低温空气源热泵、户式地源热泵、热泵热风机等代替 传统燃煤锅炉供暖的清洁能源供暖产品得到用户的青睐。 本文以 H 公司拟投建的面向以上产品的空调生产线建设项目为背景，以可行 性研究理论与实践总结为依据，对项目建设的必要性、产品的市场前景、项目建 设规模、产品及工艺方案、工程及设备投资方案、资金需求及筹措方案、以及项 目实施导致的财务结果、可能面临的风险等进行了详细的阐述与论证。研究表明， 本项目产品符合国家产业发展方向，产品及工艺技术成熟，项目投资的财务回报 率及投资回收期均好于同行业投资平均水平，本项目的投资具有可行性。在打赢 蓝天保卫战，建设美丽中国的大背景下，有效推进北方地区清洁供暖是我国近几 年重要的战略部署，这会给相应的企业带来较大的市场机会。 H 公司应抓住机遇、 适当控制固定资产投资规模，在资金筹措到位的情况下及早启动该项目。 本项目的研究成果具有较强的实践指导意义。一方面有助于 H 公司进行科学 决策，减少投资风险，另外对类似建设项目的可行性研究也有一定的借鉴意义。 关键词，空调生产线，建设项目，财务评价，可行性研究ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT Since the introduction of air-conditioning production lines in the 1980s, China has become the world's largest air-conditioner manufacturing country after 30 years of development. The output of air conditioners in China's rooms reached 176.62 million units in 2017. Domestic consumption reached 88.75 million units and exports reached 52.44 million units, all of which were record highs. After several years of elimination, the domestic air-conditioning market competition pattern is relatively stable, and all enterprises are seeking new breakthroughs. In 2016, “ Replacing coal with electricity ” project was started in the northern region headed by Beijing. Low-temperature air source heat pumps, household ground source heat pumps, heat pump hot air blowers and other clean energy heating products that replace traditional coal-fired boilers are favored by users. Based on the background of the air-conditioning production line construction project which H Company intends to invest for the above products and the summary of the feasibility study theory and practice, this paper discusses the necessity of the project, the market prospects of the products, the scale of the project construction, the product and process plan,the investment plan of the project and the equipment, capital requirements and the financing plan. The financial results and possible risks caused by project implementation are expounded and demonstrated in detail. The research shows that the product of this project conforms to the development direction of national industry, the product and technology are mature, the financial return rate and investment payback period of the project investment are better than the average level of investment in the same industry, and the investment of this project is feasible. Under the background of winning the battle of defending the blue sky and building a beautiful China, effectively promoting clean heating in the northern region is an important strategic plan in China in recent years, which will bring greater market opportunities to the corresponding enterprises. H company should seize the opportunity, properly control the scale of investment in fixed assets, and start the project as soon as possible when capital is in place. The research results of this project have strong practical guiding significance. On the one hand, it is helpful for H company to make scientific decision and reduceABSTRACT III investment risk, on the other hand, it is also helpful for the feasibility study of similar construction projects. Keywords: Air-conditioning production line, Construction project, Financial evaluation, Feasibility study目 录 IV 目 录 第一章 绪论 .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 选题背景 ............................................................................................................ 1 1.2 投资项目概况 .................................................................................................... 2 1.3 项目建设的必要性 ............................................................................................ 2 1.3.1 公司发展需要 ........................................................................................ 2 1.3.2 建设地配套及政策优势 ........................................................................ 3 1.4 可行性研究的相关理论基础 ............................................................................ 5 1.4.1 可行性研究的主要作用 ........................................................................ 5 1.4.2 可行性研究的重点内容 ........................................................................ 5 1.5 研究的目的和意义 ............................................................................................ 6 1.6 研究的思路和方法 ............................................................................................ 6 1.6.1 研究基本思路 ........................................................................................ 6 1.6.2 研究方法 ................................................................................................ 7 1.7 报告框架 ............................................................................................................ 7 第二章 行业投资环境分析 ............................................................................................ 8 2.1 宏观环境分析 .................................................................................................... 8 2.1.1 政策环境 ................................................................................................ 8 2.1.2 经济和社会环境 .................................................................................... 9 2.1.3 技术环境 ................................................................................................ 9 2.2 市场分析 .......................................................................................................... 10 2.2.1 产品简介 .............................................................................................. 10 2.2.2 地源热泵市场 .......................................................................................11 2.2.3 热泵热风机市场 .................................................................................. 13 第三章 项目建设方案 .................................................................................................. 14 3.1 建设内容与产品方案 ...................................................................................... 14 3.1.1 建设内容 .............................................................................................. 14 3.1.2 产品方案 .............................................................................................. 14 3.2 生产工艺技术与装备方案 .............................................................................. 19 3.2.1 工艺流程 .............................................................................................. 19 3.2.2 关键工艺要点 ...................................................................................... 20目 录 V 3.2.3 工艺技术来源 ....................................................................................... 22 3.3 主要设备方案 .................................................................................................. 22 3.3.1 设备选购原则 ...................................................................................... 22 3.3.2 主要设备清单 ...................................................................................... 22 3.3.3 主要设备技术性能、参数 .................................................................. 25 3.4 工程方案 .......................................................................................................... 25 3.5 厂址选择 .......................................................................................................... 27 3.6 项目实施进度 .................................................................................................. 27 3.6.1 建设期 .................................................................................................. 27 3.6.2 项目实施进度安排 .............................................................................. 27 3.7 项目投资估算与资金筹措 .............................................................................. 28 3.7.1 投资估算依据和说明 .......................................................................... 28 3.7.2 总投资估算 .......................................................................................... 29 3.7.3 资金筹措及使用计划 .......................................................................... 31 第四章 项目财务评价 .................................................................................................. 32 4.1 财务评价的方法与依据 .................................................................................. 32 4.2 营业收入和税金估算 ...................................................................................... 33 4.3 成本费用估算 .................................................................................................. 34 4.4 项目财务评价 .................................................................................................. 35 4.4.1 盈利能力分析 ...................................................................................... 35 4.4.2 财务生存能力分析 .............................................................................. 36 4.4.3 偿债能力分析 ...................................................................................... 37 4.5 不确定性分析 .................................................................................................. 37 4.5.1 盈亏平衡分析 ...................................................................................... 37 4.5.2 敏感性分析 .......................................................................................... 37 4.6 财务评价结论 .................................................................................................. 38 第五章 项目风险分析 .................................................................................................. 40 5.1 风险影响因素 .................................................................................................. 40 5.1.1 主要风险因素识别 .............................................................................. 40 5.1.2 主要风险因素评价 .............................................................................. 41 5.2 风险规避措施 .................................................................................................. 41 5.3 风险影响程度评价 .......................................................................................... 42 第六章 结论与建议 ...................................................................................................... 43目 录 VI 6.1 研究结论 .......................................................................................................... 43 6.2 项目实施建议 .................................................................................................. 43 致谢 ................................................................................................................................ 44