广东省粤西地区（含湛江市、茂名市、阳江市）是能源短缺地区，该地区目前以煤、 油和液化石油气为主要能源消费结构，电力不足和远离能源供应基地的现状给粤西地区 工业生产、环境保护和交通运行造成了巨大的压力。LNG（液化天然气）供应城市燃气， 在工业上替代 LPG（液化石油气）、电、柴油具有较强的竞争力，该地区充分利用国际市 场和 LNG 可供资源，引进国外 LNG 资源作为粤西的重要工业燃料和城市燃气，为促进广 东省粤西地区国民经济和社会发展，改善大气环境，提高人民生活质量，调整能源结构， 满足工业和城镇居民能源需求，对广东的经济社会发展有重要的作用。 本文首先阐述了研究的背景和意义，并通过查阅相关学术文献，了解国内外项目可 行性研究在建设投资决策中的重要地位，从项目可行性研究现状出发，对国内外 LNG 工 程项目研究成果进行概括性总结，对 LNG 项目可行性研究标准进行了阐述，确定了研究 内容和研究方法，以广东省粤西地区为研究对象，对广东省粤西地区引进 LNG 工程项目 从项目工程技术可行性、市场需求分析、资源运输条件、社会经济分析、节能减排、环 境可行性、投资估算及财务分析、HSE 等方面，利用文献研究法、系统分析法、图表法、 定性和定量法、理论结合实际的方法论证该项目可行性，从而得出该项目是可行的结论， 同时指出了本研究的不足之处，并提出了下一步研究展望与设想。本文通过对粤西 LNG 项目可行性的论证，为改变粤西地区能源结构现状实现能源结构调整提出新方向，同时 丰富了 LNG 工程项目可行性研究相关理论，对今后同类项目可行性研究具有借鉴和示范 作用。 关键词，LNG；工程项目；可行性II Abstract Western Guangdong region (including the city of Zhanjiang, Maoming and Yangjiang ) is an energy shortage region. At present, coal, oil and liquefied petroleum gas are the main energy consumption structure in this region. The current situation of insufficient electricity and being far from the energy supply base has caused tremendous pressure on industrial production, environmental protection and traffic operation in Western Guangdong region.LNG (liquefied natural gas) supplies urban gas and has a strong competitiveness in industrial substitution for LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), electricity and diesel.This region makes full use of the international market and LNG available resources, and imports foreign LNG resources as important industrial fuel and urban gas in Western Guangdong.It plays an important part in the economic and social development of Guangdong to promote the people's living quality, adjust energy structure, and meet the energy needs of the industrial and urban residents. This paper firstly expounds the background and significance of the study, and through consulting the relevant academic literature to understand the important position of project feasibility study in the construction investment decision-making at home and abroad. Starting from the current situation of project feasibility study, this paper summarizes the research results of LNG project at home and abroad, and expounds the feasibility study standard of LNG project,confirming the research contents and methods: taking the western Guangdong region as the research object, demonstrating the feasibility of the project from the LNG project introduced into the western Guangdong region,which including engineering technology feasibility, market demand analysis, resource transportation conditions, socio-economic analysis, energy saving and emission reduction, environmental feasibility, investment estimation and financial analysis, HSE and so on by using the methods of literature research, system analysis, chart, qualitative and quantitative analysis, theory combined with practice, and drawing a conclusion that the project is feasible. At the same time, it points out the shortcomings of this study, and assumption as well as prospect are brought forward.Through the demonstration of the feasibility of LNG project in Western Guangdong, this paper puts forward a new direction to change the current situation of energyIII structure in Western Guangdong and realizes the adjustment of energy structure. At the same time, it enriches the relevant theory of LNG project feasibility study, and has a reference and demonstration role for the future feasibility study of similar projects. Keywords， LNG； Engineering Project；FeasibilityIV 目 录 摘要.....................................................................................................................................I Abstract................................................................................................................................. II 第一章 绪论..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题的背景 ..............................................................................................................1 1.2 研究目的及意义 ......................................................................................................2 1.2.1 研究目的 ........................................................................................................2 1.2.2 研究的意义.....................................................................................................2 1.3 可行性研究国内外发展...........................................................................................2 1.3.1 国外发展现状.................................................................................................2 1.3.2 国内发展现状.................................................................................................3 1.4 研究思路及方法 ......................................................................................................4 1.4.1 研究思路 ........................................................................................................4 1.4.2 研究方法 ........................................................................................................4 1.5 项目可行性研究基本作用及内容............................................................................5 1.5.1 项目可行性研究概述 .....................................................................................5 1.5.2 可行性研究的基本作用 .................................................................................5 1.5.3 项目可行性研究的内容 .................................................................................6 1.6 本章小结 ..................................................................................................................6 第二章 项目背景及概述 ......................................................................................................7 2.1 项目背景 ..................................................................................................................7 2.1.1 粤西地区概况.................................................................................................7 2.1.2 项目背景 ........................................................................................................8 2.1.3 项目建设的必要性 .........................................................................................9 2.2 项目概况 ................................................................................................................10 2.2.1 本项目工程概况...........................................................................................10 2.2.2 本项目 LNG 气源概况 .................................................................................11 2.2.3 项目管理结构...............................................................................................11V 2.2.4 项目劳动定员...............................................................................................11 第三章 项目技术可行性研究.............................................................................................13 3.1 国际 LNG 建设情况 ..............................................................................................13 3.1.1 美国 LNG 建设情况 .....................................................................................13 3.1.2 日本 LNG 建设情况 .....................................................................................13 3.1.3 韩国 LNG 建设情况 .....................................................................................13 3.1.4 其他国家 ......................................................................................................13 3.2 中国 LNG 建设情况 ..............................................................................................14 3.3 项目技术可行性 ....................................................................................................14 3.3.1 LNG 储罐 ......................................................................................................15 3.3.2 LNG 运输 ......................................................................................................16 3.3.3 LNG 接收终端 ..............................................................................................18 3.3.4 LNG 规模的确定...........................................................................................20 3.4 本章小结 ................................................................................................................21 第四章 项目经济可行性分析.............................................................................................22 4.1 粤西 LNG 市场需求预测.......................................................................................22 4.1.1 天然气利用市场的基础数据........................................................................22 4.1.2 粤西地区天然气需求量预测........................................................................24 4.2 引进 LNG 的市场承受能力及竞争力分析 ............................................................29 4.2.1 天然气用户承受气价的能力........................................................................29 4.2.2 天然气与其他燃料的竞争力分析................................................................31 4.3 竞争对手分析 ........................................................................................................35 4.3.1 湛江市城市燃气供应现状 ...........................................................................35 4.3.2 茂名市城市燃气供应现状 ...........................................................................35 4.3.3 阳江市城市燃气供应现状 ...........................................................................36 4.4 项目经济可行性分析.............................................................................................36 4.4.1 建设规模 ......................................................................................................36 4.4.2 产品方案 ......................................................................................................36 4.4.3 投资估算及资金筹措 ...................................................................................36 4.4.4 财务评价 ......................................................................................................37VI 4.5 本章小结 ................................................................................................................42 第五章 项目健康安全环保可行性分析 .............................................................................43 5.1 环境影响初步分析.................................................................................................43 5.1.1 主要污染源和污染物预测分析....................................................................43 5.1.2 环保措施 ......................................................................................................44 5.1.3 环境管理与监测...........................................................................................45 5.1.4 环境保护设施投资 .......................................................................................46 5.1.5 环境影响总体评价 .......................................................................................46 5.2 节能减排方案 ........................................................................................................46 5.2.1 节能措施 ......................................................................................................46 5.2.2 LNG 冷能的潜在利用 ...................................................................................47 5.2.3 结论 ..............................................................................................................48 5.3 劳动安全与职业健康.............................................................................................48 5.3.1 总体方针 ......................................................................................................48 5.3.2 项目生产过程中危害因素分析....................................................................49 5.3.3 自然灾害的影响...........................................................................................50 5.3.4 劳动安全防护措施 .......................................................................................50 5.3.5 项目的消防方案...........................................................................................53 5.4 本章小结 ................................................................................................................54 第六章 风险分析及防范对策.............................................................................................55 6.1 风险分析 ................................................................................................................55 6.2 防范和降低风险的对策.........................................................................................56 6.3 本章小结 ................................................................................................................57 结 论...................................................................................................................................58 研究取得的成果 ....................................................................................................58 研究结论................................................................................................................58 下一步研究展望与设想.........................................................................................59