近十年来，得益于中国经济改革的成功和世界乐器产业战略转移的机遇，我国乐器 行业通过代工生产（OEM）和外贸出口，完成企业的原始资本积累并蓬勃发展。2013 年 6 月末，我国乐器制造工业企业实现主营业务收入 119.6 亿元，全行业累计实现工业 销售产值达 119.7 亿元，产销率达 97.4%,其中吉他产量居各类乐器之首，每年世界大约 有 5000-8000 万把，种类大约有 1000 种之多。近 20 年来，吉他产地由台湾转移到中国，大陆 集中在广东惠州地区的乐器企业所生产的吉他 90%出口到世界各地，产量占到世界产量 的 30%。 广州 M 吉他有限公司（以下简称“M 吉他”或“公司”） 是一家国有全资乐器制 造公司，长期从事吉他研发、制造、销售与服务，经过 50 多年的发展，现已成为中国 吉他行业的龙头企业。公司原厂区位于广州市海珠区新港东路东部环城高速旁，占地约 1 万平方米。现由于产能结构调整需要，计划借助政策优势，将厂区迁移至河源市高新 技术开发区，着力打造国内最具规模的吉他、提琴制造基地。 项目选址广东省河源市高新技术开发区，建筑面积达 77，820 平方米,分两期进行建 设，第一期初步建成乐器生产基地，把广州 M 吉他有限公司、广州市 M 提琴有限公司、 广州埃士顿乐器有限公司(M 公司与澳大利亚澳大利斯音乐集团合资的子公司)搬迁至新 基地，完成第一期易地改造升级项目，第二期将进一步扩建吉他生产基地，建设木材仓 库及成品仓库等，完善产业基地综合配套工程。 项目总投资 15，661.69 万元，于 2015 年 1 月启动，计划于 2016 年 6 月完工，项目 建设期为 18 个月，预计 2016 年可实现 80%达产，2017 年开始完全达产，未来五年净 利润率均稳定在 7%的水平，税后财务内部收益率 18.91%，高于当期贷款利率及财务基 准收益率，税后总投资收益率 17.57%，证实了项目具有可行性。 本文运用商业计划书模式，使用 PEST 模型、波特五力竞争模型及市场营销策略， 对整个项目的工作进行研究，综合评价该项目实行的可行性。全文共分为四部分，第一 部分重点对整个乐器市场、国内乐器行业发展情况以及 M 公司自身的优劣势、机遇、 威胁等情况进行了较为详尽的分析；第二部分重点为 M 公司河源产业基地项目中各板 块的构成和作用、建设中的策划及管理；第三部分是对该项目投入产出进行的评估，取 得的经济效益和社会效应；第四部分是结合自身的特点和实际规划的操作性，制定项目II 风险及控制措施。 关键词，乐器制造；项目投资；商业计划书III ABSTRACT Over the past decade, thanks to the success of China's economic reforms and opportunities for the world music industry strategic shift, China's music industry through OEM (OEM) and exports, the completion of the primitive accumulation of capital and enterprise to flourish. The end of June 2013, China's industrial enterprises realized main instrument manufacturing business revenue 11.96 billion yuan, the whole industry realized a total industrial sales output value reached 11.97 billion yuan, sales rate of 97.4%, which ranks first in production of various types of guitar musical instruments, each year around the world there are ten thousand 5000-8000, about 1,000 kinds of species. The past 20 years, guitar origin transferred from Taiwan to China, in Guangdong Huizhou region of musical instrument guitar produced 90% of exports to the rest of the world, production accounted for 30% of world production. Guangzhou M guitar, Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as M guitar or the Company) is a wholly state-owned musical instrument manufacturing company, engaged in guitar R & D, manufacturing, sales and service, after 50 years of development, China has become the guitar industry enterprises. Company factory area is located next to Xingang Road, Guangzhou Beltway east, covering about 10,000 square meters. Now be required due to capacity restructuring plan by means of policy advantages, the factory moved to the High-Tech Development Zone in Heyuan City, efforts to create the country's largest guitar, violin manufacturing base. High-tech Development Zone project is located in Heyuan City, Guangdong Province, the construction area of 77,820 square meters, the construction in two phases, the first phase initially built musical production base, the Guangzhou M guitar Co., Ltd. Guangzhou M violin, musical Instrument Co., Ltd. Guangzhou Aishi Dayton (M Company Australia Australia Lismore Music Group, a subsidiary of the joint venture) moved to a new base, completed the first phase of ex-situ upgrading project, the second phase will be further expanded guitar production base, construction timber warehouse and finished goods warehouse and improve the industrial base complex project. The total investment 15,661.69 million in January 2015 to start construction, planned for completion in June 2016, the project construction period is 18 months, is expected to be achieved by 2016 up to 80% of production, in 2017 began full production, next five years, the net profit rate steady at 6.8% level, after-tax internal rate of return 21.30%, higher than theIV current loan interest rate, total investment income tax rate 15.63%, confirming the feasibility of the project. In this paper, a business plan model, using PEST model, Porter's five forces competitive model and marketing strategies, conduct research on the entire project, a comprehensive evaluation of the feasibility of the project implemented. The thesis is divided into four parts: The first part focuses on the entire instrument market, the domestic music industry developments and M company's own strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats carried out a more detailed analysis; second part focuses on the industrial base for the M Company Heyuan project structure and role of the sector, construction planning and management; third part is invested in the project assessment conducted output, economic and social effects achieved; fourth part is combined with its own characteristics and the actual planning operational, project risks and control measures. Key words，production base；project research；business planV 目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................. III 图表清单..................................................................................................................................IX 第一章 绪 论..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义 ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 研究的背景.............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 研究的意义.............................................................................................................. 3 1.2 文献综述 ......................................................................................................................... 4 1.2.1 商业计划书.............................................................................................................. 4 1.2.2 国内乐器行业生产发展状况.................................................................................. 5 1.2.3 国内乐器行业出口状况.......................................................................................... 6 1.2.4 国内吉他行业的发展趋势...................................................................................... 8 1.2.5 本文所涉及的相关理论.......................................................................................... 9 1.3 研究内容与方法 ................................................................................................... 10 1.3.1 研究内容................................................................................................................ 10 1.3.2 研究方法................................................................................................................ 10 1.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 12 第二章 项目概况....................................................................................................................13 2.1 项目投资方概况 ........................................................................................................... 13 2.2 项目的地理位置 ........................................................................................................... 13 2.3 项目所在地的资源和优势 ........................................................................................... 13 2.4 项目的内容 ................................................................................................................... 15 2.4.1 项目所在地块........................................................................................................ 15 2.4.2 项目功能分区........................................................................................................ 15 2.5 项目实施计划 ............................................................................................................... 17 2.6 项目建设方案 ............................................................................................................... 18 2.7 工艺流程 ....................................................................................................................... 19VI 2.8 新技术设备 ................................................................................................................... 23 第三章 市场环境与竞争分析................................................................................................27 3.1 宏观环境分析 ............................................................................................................... 27 3.1.1 政策环境................................................................................................................ 27 3.1.2 经济环境................................................................................................................ 28 3.1.3 社会环境................................................................................................................ 28 3.1.4 技术环境分析........................................................................................................ 29 3.2 内部环境分析 ............................................................................................................... 29 3.2.1 项目投资方优势.................................................................................................... 29 3.2.2 项目投资方劣势.................................................................................................... 31 3.3 行业分析 ....................................................................................................................... 31 3.3.1 吉他及提琴行业发展现状.................................................................................... 31 3.3.2 吉他行业竞争力分析............................................................................................ 32 3.3.3 吉他行业需求分析................................................................................................ 32 3.4 主要竞争对手分析 ....................................................................................................... 37 3.4.1 竞争对手基本情况分析........................................................................................ 37 3.4.2 市场占比分析........................................................................................................ 38 3.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 40 第四章 市场定位和营销策略................................................................................................41 4.1 市场定位（STP） ........................................................................................................ 41 4.1.1 吉他市场细分........................................................................................................ 41 4.1.2 目标客户和目标市场选择.................................................................................... 43 4.1.3 市场定位................................................................................................................ 43 4.2 营销目标 ....................................................................................................................... 43 4.3 营销策略分析 ............................................................................................................... 45 4.3.1 产品策略................................................................................................................ 45 4.3.2 品牌策略................................................................................................................ 46 4.3.3 渠道策略................................................................................................................ 47 4.3.4 服务及反馈策略.................................................................................................... 47VII 4.3.5 价格策略................................................................................................................ 48 4.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 49 第五章 项目公司的组织运营规划........................................................................................50 5.1 组织结构和人员配置 ................................................................................................... 50 5.1.1 公司组织架构及各部门的工作职能.................................................................... 50 5.1.2 人员配置及薪酬.................................................................................................... 51 5.2 运营管理规划 ............................................................................................................... 52 5.2.1 公司内部的生产管理控制.................................................................................... 52 5.2.2 服务规划................................................................................................................ 53 5.2.3 品牌规划................................................................................................................ 54 5. 3 本章小结 ...................................................................................................................... 54 第六章 项目投资估算与效益分析........................................................................................55 6.1 投资估算 ....................................................................................................................... 55 6.1.1 总投资构成............................................................................................................ 55 6.1.2 资金筹措................................................................................................................ 56 6.1.3 投资使用计划........................................................................................................ 56 6.2 项目经济效益分析 ....................................................................................................... 56 6.2.1 项目的营业收入结构............................................................................................ 56 6.2.2 项目成本费用分析................................................................................................ 57 6.2.3 项目盈利模式及利润主要来源............................................................................ 60 6.2.4 项目投资未来 5 年现金流量预测........................................................................ 61 6.2.5 盈亏平衡分析........................................................................................................ 62 6.2.6 投资回收期与净现金值........................................................................................ 63 6.2.7 投资收益率分析.................................................................................................... 63 6.3 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 63 第七章 项目风险分析及控制措施........................................................................................64 7.1 项目存在的各项不确定风险 ....................................................................................... 64 7.1.1 市场无序竞争........................................................................................................ 64VIII 7.1.2 市场汇率波动较大................................................................................................ 64 7.1.3 国际贸易摩擦加剧................................................................................................ 64 7.1.4 项目产生的主要污染源和污染物........................................................................ 64 7.2 针对各种不确定性风险的对策 ................................................................................... 64 7.2.1 市场无序竞争及国内消费市场不成熟应对措施................................................ 64 7.2.2 国际市场风险应对措施........................................................................................ 65 7.2.3 环境保护应对措施................................................................................................ 65 7. 3 本章小结 ...................................................................................................................... 66 结 论......................................................................................................................................67