I 摘要 可行性研究是项目投入建设前的重要工作，是对拟建项目工程的一种鉴定和 考察，是投资决策的依据。风能作为一种可再生能源，可以减少环境污染、调整 电力工业结构、推进技术进步，因此在世界各国得到了广泛的开发和应用，我国 风能利用还处在起步阶段，大力发展风能已经成为我国能源战略的重要组成部 分。与此同时，风电场建设项目本身具有的投资大、回收期长等这些特点，使得 对风电场建设项目可行性研究必不可少。 本文首先介绍了研究背景和意义、国内外目前研究现状以及本文研究的主要 思路和方法。报告通过分析湘南 GLP 风电场项目影响区的社会经济发展情况和风 能资源概况，对项目的需求及建设必要性进行了论证。然后，就湘南 GLP 风电场 项目的建设条件、标准和规模进行论证，并根据技术标准建设规模结合项目实际 情况给出了拟建设项目的工程方案。接着，评价了湘南 GLP 风电场项目的环境影 响，并提出了减少环境影响的相关建议。最后本文对湘南 GLP 风电场项目进行了 投资估算和财务效益评价，包括项目的盈利能力分析、清偿能力分析。同时对湘 南 GLP 风电场项目进行了经济评估、不确定性和风险分析，包括项目的盈亏平衡 分析和敏感性分析等。本项目的可行性研究对于指导湘南 GLP 风电场项目具有一 定的指导意义，另外对于风电场建设相关研究也具有一定的参考价值。 关键词：风电场建设；经济评估；风险评估；可行性研究Abstract II Abstract The project feasibility study, as the basis of investment decision,is an important work before the construction of the project, also is a kind of identification and investigation of the project. Wind energy as a renewable energy, and can reduce environmental pollution, adjust power industrial structure, promote technological progress. It has been widely developed and used in the world. Wind energy utilization in China is still in the initial stage. And vigorously develop wind power has become an important part of China's energy strategy. At the same time, the Wind Farm construction project has the characteristiclarger investment, longer recovery period than other investment projects. And these make the wind farm construction project feasibility study essential. At first, the paper introduces the research background, significance and elaborates the relevant research from domestic to foreign present, and then introduces the main content and method of this paper. Secondly, it demonstrates the necessity of the project through the analysis of social economy and wind energy resources of the local zone investment. Thirdly, it proves the suitability of the Xiangnan GLP Wind Farm project’s construction condition, standard and scale, and then gives the proposed renovation project engineering solutions according to the technical standard and construction scale of project, combined with the actual situation. Then, this paper assesses the environmental impact of project, and puts forward some countermeasures to reduce the environmental impact of the project. Finally, this article has carried on the investment estimate and financial benefit evaluation of Xiangnan GLP Wind Farm project, including the project’s profitability analysis and solvency analysis. At the same time，it analyzes the economic evaluation and risk assessment, which including breakeven analysis and sensitivity analysis. The feasibility study of project has a certain guiding significance to guide Xiangnan GLP Wind Farm project,and for the research of the wind farm construction also has a certain reference value. Keywords: Wind Farm Construction; Economic Evaluation; Risk Assessment; Feasibility Study目录 III 目录 摘要................................................................................................................................ I Abstract ......................................................................................................................... II 第 1 章 绪论..................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究的背景及意义..........................................................................................1 1.2 相关文献综述..................................................................................................2 1.2.1 项目可行性研究现状...........................................................................2 1.2.2 风电场项目可行性研究现状...............................................................5 1.3 研究思路和方法..............................................................................................6 1.3.1 研究思路...............................................................................................6 1.3.2 研究方法...............................................................................................7 第 2 章湘南 GLP 风电场项目建设的风能资源分析..................................................9 2.1 项目研究区域环境概况..................................................................................9 2.1.1 地理位置...............................................................................................9 2.1.2 气候特征...............................................................................................9 2.2 项目影响区域社会经济发展状况................................................................10 2.2.1 CZ 市社会经济发展状况 ..................................................................10 2.2.2 RC 县社会经济发展状况 ..................................................................10 2.3 参证气象站风况分析.................................................................................... 11 2.3.1 参证气象站基本情况......................................................................... 11 2.3.2 气象站年际风况特征.........................................................................12 2.3.3 气象站年内风况特征.........................................................................14 2.4 风电场风能资源分析....................................................................................16 2.4.1 风电场风能资源主要结论.................................................................16 2.4.2 风电场场址气象灾害分析.................................................................17 第 3 章湘南 GLP 风电场项目工程方案设计............................................................18 3.1 湘南 GLP 风电场项目简介 ..........................................................................18 3.2 项目建设条件................................................................................................18 3.2.1 地形地貌.............................................................................................18 3.2.2 气候特征.............................................................................................19 3.2.3 区域风能资源.....................................................................................19 3.3 建设标准及规模............................................................................................19湘潭大学商学院硕士学位报告 IV 3.4 工程方案........................................................................................................20 3.4.1 机组选型与布置.................................................................................20 3.4.2 电气工程方案设计.............................................................................23 3.4.3 项目组织与管理.................................................................................25 第 4 章湘南 GLP 风电场项目环境影响评价............................................................27 4.1 环境评价的适用标准....................................................................................27 4.2 环境影响分析和评价....................................................................................28 4.2.1 施工期环境影响分析.........................................................................28 4.2.2 营运期环境影响分析.........................................................................29 4.3 减少 GLP 风电场项目环境影响的建议 ......................................................30 4.3.1 生态环境保护.....................................................................................30 4.3.2 噪音污染防治.....................................................................................30 4.3.3 电磁辐射防护.....................................................................................31 4.3.4 公共安全保护.....................................................................................31 第 5 章湘南 GLP 风电场项目投资估算和财务效益评价........................................32 5.1 项目投资估算和资金筹措............................................................................32 5.1.1 项目投资估算.....................................................................................32 5.1.2 项目资金筹措.....................................................................................34 5.2 项目经济评价依据与方法............................................................................34 5.3 财务效益与费用估算....................................................................................35 5.3.1 财务效益计算.....................................................................................35 5.3.2 费用估算.............................................................................................36 5.4 财务分析........................................................................................................36 5.4.1 项目盈利能力分析.............................................................................36 5.4.2 项目清偿能力分析.............................................................................37 5.4.3 财务评价结论.....................................................................................38 5.4.4 社会效益.............................................................................................39 第 6 章湘南 GLP 风电场项目不确定性和风险分析..............................................41 6.1 项目不确定性与风险概述............................................................................41 6.1.1 项目的不确定因素及风险来源.........................................................41 6.1.2 GLP 风电场项目的不确定性及风险因素 ........................................42 6.2 盈亏平衡分析................................................................................................42 6.3 敏感性分析....................................................................................................43目录 V 6.4 风险评价结论................................................................................................44 6.4.1 财务风险.............................................................................................44 6.4.2 其它风险.............................................................................................45 结论和建议..................................................................................................................46