国内聚丙烯广泛应用于包装、家电、汽车、纤维等领域，是国内发展最快的通用塑 料之一。我国甲醇消费市场主要集中在东部及南部经济发达地区，华亭煤业集团甲醇产 品距目标市场较远,而且甲醇属液态危险品，其贮存和运输成本较高，存在严重的运输瓶 颈，因此解决甲醇外销和运输问题迫在眉睫。另外，由于近年来国内甲醇产能的过快扩 张，产能过剩严重，还有进一步加剧的趋势，产品市场价格波动较大。因此，将甲醇作 为最终产品外销对企业盈利能力和竞争力将带来不利影响。 本文就是在这样的背景下，对华亭煤业甲醇制聚丙烯项目可行性研究进行了深入研 究分析，首先在理论研究方面，本课题在理论分析的基础上，针对该项目可行性分析的 影响因素，从工艺技术、设备选型、投资估算、环境保护以及风险分析等方面构建甲醇 制聚丙烯项目可行性评价的指标体系，为甲醇制聚丙烯可行性评价提供标准，丰富关于 甲醇制聚丙烯项目可行性评估的相关理论，使得本文的研究在理论方面具有一定的创新 和亮点。另外，在研究方法方面。本文采用问卷的调研的方式，对该项目的建设风险进 行全面的评价，并且在数据处理的基础之上，对甲醇制聚丙烯项目的可行性进行全面的 评估和判断，真实、客观全面地对该项目存在的风险进行量化分析，为企业的相关决策 者制定出合理的防范对策，有效的控制项目风险，为项目建设的可行性提供借鉴和参考。 关键词，煤业集团；甲醇；聚丙烯；项目；可行性分析 研究类型，专题研究ABSTRACT Domestic polypropylene is widely used in packaging, household appliances, fiber and other aspects .In China what is the most developed aspect is plastics. Alcohol consumption market in China mainly concentrated in the developed areas in southern and eastern China. The location place of Huating coal group is far from the target markets and what is more, the liquid methanol is the dangerous goods, the storage and transportation cost is high, thus solving these problems are extremely urgent. In addition, the excessive expansion of the domestic methanol in recent years overcapacity is serious and the price of the methanol is concussive, therefore, sell the methanol directly to the market will have a adverse impact on profitability and competitiveness. This article studied on the feasibility of the methanol polypropylene project. Firstly, in terms of theoretical research, this article analysis the technology, equipment selection, investment estimation, environmental protection and risk analysis and so on. It provided a feasibility evaluation system, provide criteria for methanol to polypropylene feasibility evaluation, the study of this article has some innovation and bright spot. In addition, in terms of research methods, with the method of questionnaire investigation, this paper made the evaluation on the construction risk. On the basis of data processing, the author made the evaluation and judgment of the feasibility of the polypropylene project, the real and the quantitative analysis of the project risks. The article provided a reasonable preventive and risk control measures to the related decision makers and make a reference for the project construction. Keywords:Coal group; methanol; polypropylene; project; feasibility analysis Thesis: Monographic study Subject ， Feasibility study of Huating coal industry group of methanol polypropylene project Specialty ， Master of business administration Name ， Du Wei （Signature） Instructor ， Gao Yacui （Signature）目录 I 目 录 1 绪论.........................................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景及研究意义...................................................................................................1 1.1.1 选题背景.............................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义.............................................................................................................1 1.2 国内外研究现状...........................................................................................................2 1.2.1 国外研究现状.....................................................................................................2 1.2.2 国内研究现状.....................................................................................................3 1.3 研究方案和技术路线...................................................................................................5 1.3.1 研究方法.............................................................................................................5 1.3.2 研究内容.............................................................................................................5 1.3.3 技术路线.............................................................................................................6 2 项目可行性分析的理论综述.................................................................................................7 2.1 项目可行性分析相关概念............................................................................................7 2.2 可行性分析特点...........................................................................................................8 2.3 可行性分析的内容.......................................................................................................8 2.4 可行性分析方法............................................................................................................9 3 华亭煤业集团甲醇制聚丙烯项目必要性和环境安全分析...............................................11 3.1 甲醇制聚丙烯项目简介.............................................................................................11 3.2 甲醇制聚丙烯项目建设必要性调查.........................................................................11 3.2.1 国内聚丙烯生产现状与预测............................................................................11 3.2.2 国内聚丙烯消费现状与预测............................................................................15 3.2.3 甲醇制聚丙烯项目投资的必要性及意义........................................................17 3.3 甲醇制聚丙烯项目环境安全分析..............................................................................18 3.3.1 项目建设区域环境现状....................................................................................18 3.3.2 主要污染源及污染物........................................................................................20 4 华亭煤业集团甲醇制聚丙烯项目技术可行性分析...........................................................25 4.1 工艺技术方案..............................................................................................................25 4.1.1 工艺技术方案的选择........................................................................................25 4.1.2 工艺流程和消耗定损.......................................................................................27 4.1.3 主要设备选型...................................................................................................30 4.1.4 工艺技术及设备风险分析...............................................................................32 4.2 人力资源和实施规划..................................................................................................33目录 II 4.2.1 工厂定员及人员培训.......................................................................................33 4.2.2 实施规划...........................................................................................................34 5 华亭煤业集团甲醇制聚丙烯项目经济可行性分析...........................................................35 5.1 投资估算.....................................................................................................................35 5.2 财务评价.....................................................................................................................36 6 提高聚丙烯项目可行性的保障措施...................................................................................42 6.1 风险分析与防范措施..................................................................................................42 6.2 完善环保措施，强化企业责任..................................................................................43 6.2.1 环境保护治理措施...........................................................................................43 6.2.2 环境管理与环境监测措施...............................................................................45 6.2.3 绿化措施...........................................................................................................45 6.3 完善项目管理体制，提高项目管理水平..................................................................46 7 结论与展望...........................................................................................................................49 7.1 结论..............................................................................................................................49 7.2 展望..............................................................................................................................49