2015 年底酒泉风电能源基地基本建成，但面临许多问题，尤其突出的问题 是风电消纳不足、弃风率高、并网对电网运行带来冲击和风电自身间歇性的问题， 制约着酒泉风电产业的进一步发展 。 在上述背景下，根据甘肃、湖南电网目前市场状况及总体规划，通过对电力 供求平衡分析、电源结构分析、环保和技术经济分析,确定了玉门电厂项目建设 的必要性。本报告提出了玉门电厂项目可行性研究的范围和主要设计原则，按照 可行性研究的主要范围, 在大量的统计数据基础上，着重从市场与竞争分析、项 目建设与生产条件分析、技术分析、财务分析、风险分析等五个方面，展开对玉 门电厂项目全面的可行性分析。本报告首先阐述了研究背景、选题意义、结构安 排，继而概述了项目可行性分析的相关理论，并在对玉门电厂项目进行简要介绍 后便进入了报告的主体即对该项目的可行性分析，在全面分析的基础上，通过对 项目的投资风险分析、评估，最后得出了关于建设玉门电厂一期 4×600MW 级 超超临界燃煤发电机组工程经济可行的结论，即该项目投资是必要的、技术可行、 具有较好的经济效益和社会效益。 关键词，可行性研究；财务评价；风险分析兰州大学 MBA 硕士学位报告 神华国能甘肃玉门电厂 4×660MW 机组项目可行性研究 2 ABSTRACT Jiu quan Wind-power Energy Base was basically completed at the end of 2015. However, more and more questions are encountered, especially for the deficiency of digest and save of wind powe r, high wind-power disposal rate and the impact on the grid operation for access to grid and inter mittence of Wind-power itself, which constrains on the further development of Jiu quan wind-pow er industry. Under the above circumstances, based on the current market conditions of the grids both in Hunan Province and Gansu Province and the overall planning, it is ascertained the necessity of the construction for Yumen Power plant by the analysis of the supply and demand balance of electricity market, the power supply structure and the environmental protection and economy. This paper put forward the scope of the feasibility research on the project of Yumen power plant and main principle fordesign. According to the main scope of Feasibility research and based on a great deal of statistics datum, this research mainly emphasize on the analysis of market and competetiveness, the construction and productive conditions, technique, finance and risk. Firstly, this paper sets forth the research background, topic selection meaningness and arrangement for the structure, then summarizes the relevant theories of feasibility research. Then, this paper will proceed to the subject, i.e. the feasibility research for this project after the brief introduction to Yumen power plant. It will be concluded that the result of the construction for PhaseⅠof Yumen Power Plant 4×600MW super super-critical coal fired Energy Generating Unit is positive on the basis of the overall analysis through the investment risk analysis and assessment for this project, i.e. this investment project is necessary, feasible in technique and own preferably economic and social efficiency finally. Key words，Power plant project；Feasiblity research；Investment risk; Analysis兰州大学 MBA 硕士学位报告 神华国能甘肃玉门电厂 4×660MW 机组项目可行性研究 1 目录 中文摘要..............................................................................................................................1 一、绪 论..........................................................................................................................1 （一）研究背景和意义...............................................................................................1 （二）研究内容和思路...............................................................................................2 （三）结构框架...........................................................................................................3 二、可行性研究理论综述.................................................................................................5 （一）可行性研究的基本概念..................................................................................5 （二）可行性研究的作用..........................................................................................5 （三）可行性研究的主要内容..................................................................................5 （四）可行性研究的程序方法..................................................................................8 三、市场可行性分析.......................................................................................................12 （一）目标电力市场需求分析...............................................................................12 （二）目标电力市场空间及消纳能力研究..........................................................13 （三）建设的必要性................................................................................................15 （四）与系统的连接................................................................................................16 四、技术可行性分析.......................................................................................................18 （一）厂址条件分析................................................................................................18 （二）燃料及运输分析............................................................................................20 （三）环境及生态影响分析...................................................................................22 五、经济可行性分析.......................................................................................................25 （一）项目投资估算................................................................................................25 （二）经济效益分析................................................................................................28 （三）综合经济评价结论....................................................................................... 31 六、可行性建设方案分析...............................................................................................32 （一）全厂总体规划................................................................................................32 （二）厂区总平面规划布置...................................................................................32 （三）主厂房布置结构设计...................................................................................34 （四）装机方案........................................................................................................35 （五）热力系统........................................................................................................38 （六）燃烧系统........................................................................................................40兰州大学 MBA 硕士学位报告 神华国能甘肃玉门电厂 4×660MW 机组项目可行性研究 2 （七）电气部分........................................................................................................41 七、结论及建议............................................................................................................... 42 （一）经济影响........................................................................................................42 （二）社会影响效果................................................................................................43 （三）社会适应性....................................................................................................43