随着近几年国内乘用车市场的大幅增长,各大整车企业和零部件供 应商纷纷投入巨资建设试验基地!升级试验设备,以期实现试验能力的 提高,早日真正完成自主研发能力建设 本文在项目经济可行性分析相关理论研究的基础上,通过对比试验 设备与生产设备在配套设施!维护保养成本!设备经济效益!设备利用 率的不同特点,分析试验设备经济可行性分析中的注意事项之后以电 动转向试验能力建设为例,介绍了项目的目标!必要性以及技术要求, 分析了新购设备!旧设备改造和委外试验三套方案以及对比选择方法: 首先通过对方案资金恢复费用和年度使用费用的预估,利用年度费用法 选择了新购设备方案作为备选方案然后通过对项目初始投资!费用! 收益及其他基础参数的设定和预估,根据净现值和内部收益率等经济指 标证明了项目较高的经济效益最后从项目收益着手,通过对历年车型 计划和实际完成情况的数据统计,根据盈亏平衡法和敏感性分析对项目 进行了不确定性分析 通过相关研究,报告不仅为电动转向试验台架能力建设项目的方案 选择提供了量化的经济性依据,也为乘用车试验设备采购项目的方案选 择及经济可行性分析提供了参考 关键词:乘用车试验设备,设备采购项目,经济可行性分析,不确定性 分析卜海交通大学工程硕士学位报告ABSTRACT ECONOMICFEASIBILITYANAL!,515 OFPASSENGERCARTESTFACILITIES PROCUREMENTPROJECT ABSTRACT WiththesubstantialgrowthofthePassengercarmarketinChina,majorcar comPaniesandPartssuPPliersstarttomakelargeinvestmentinsettinguPthetest basesanduPgradingtestfacilitiesinordertoimProvethetestability,andthusachieve aneariyaccomPlishmentofindePendentR&Dability. BasedontherelevanttheoryofProjecteconomicfeasibilityanalysis,thisPaPer comParesthedifferencesbetweentestfacilitiesandmanufacturefacilities insuPPortingfacilities,maintenancecosts,economicbenefitandfacilitiesutilization. Andthen,taketheelectricsteeringmachinetestbenchforexamPle,describes theProjectobjectives,necessityandtechnicalrequirements,analysesandcomPares threePlansof/NewlyProcurement,/ExistingFacilityUPgradeand/Outsourcing, andatlastfindawaytomakethedecision:Firstly,accordingtotheestimationofthe restorationfeeandannualexPenditureandthustheannualcost,choosethe/Newly ProcurementPlanasthealternativePlan.Secondly,accordingtotheestimationofthe initialinvestment,cost,incomeandotherbasicParameters,Provethehigheconomic benefitoftheProjectbasedontheNPVandIRR.Thirdly,accordingtothestatisticsof annualPlansandcomPletionofthesePlans,starttheuncertaintyanalysisbasedonthe analysisofthebreakevenandsensitivity. Throughresearch,thisthesisProvidesquantifiedeconomicbasisfortheProject /electricsteeringmachinetestbenchandreferencesforthePlanselectionand economicfeasibilityanalysisofPassengercartestfacilitiesProcurementProjects. KEYWORDS:Passengercartestfacility,facilityProcurementProject,Economic feasibilityanalysis,uncertaintyanalysis II卜海交通大学工程硕士学位报告 目录 第一章绪论................................................................................1 1.1报告的选题背崇和研究意义........................................................................................................1 1.1.1报告的选题背景.........................................................................................................................1 1.1.2课题的研究意义.........................................................................................................................2 1.2投资项目经济可行性研究的背崇................................................................................................3 1.2.1可行性分析概述.........................................................................................................................3 1.2.2可行性分析的发展及研究现状.................................................................................................4 1.2.3项目经济性评价的方法.............................................................................................................5 1.3项目不确定性分析........................................................................................................................7 1.3.1不确定性分析概述.....................................................................................................................7 1.3.2盈亏平衡分析法.........................................................................................................................7 1.3.3敏感性分析.................................................................................................................................8 1.4报告的研究思路............................................................................................................................9 点州加一,.,!一8曳性,J-!.,8卜,之,.!J肠1.1~,!8~r-毛巴.-月月 2.1乘用车研发中的试验..................................................................................................................H 2.1.1乘用车研发生命周期...............................................................................................................H 2.1.2研发周期中的试验工作...........................................................................................................12 2.2试验设备与生产设备对比..........................................................................................................13 2.2.1试验设备与生产设备的定义...................................................................................................13 2.2.2配套设施...................................................................................................................................14 2.2.3维修保养...................................................................................................................................15 2.2.4设备的经济效益.......................................................................................................................15 2.2.5设备利用率...............................................................................................................................16 2.3乘用车试验设备收益估算方法..................................................................................................17 2.4试验设备经济性分析要点..........................................................................................................18 仓宫二二崔参.d二二石古云.七帕二卜翻八名入力口至口日翻T诀叮厂刁俄窦!口,n 州传二二写鼠电,习J牛万laJ和几葺亚云万朝民喇民只闷月以目.!育刀毛乙U 3.1项目背崇......................................................................................................................................20 3.1.1汽车转向系统概述...................................................................................................................20 3.1.2电动转向系统的相关试验......................................................................................................21 3.1.3转向试验台架的现状与目标..................................................................................................22 3.1.4电动转向试验台架采购项目情况..........................................................................................22 3.2项目的必要性分析......................................................................................................................23 3.3项目的技术可行性分析..............................................................................................................25 3.3.1电动转向试验设备的应用范围...............................................................................................25 3.3.2电动转向试验设备的功能要求...............................................................................................25 3.3.3电动转向试验设备的简要技术要求.......................................................................................26 3.4项目的风险因素及对策..............................................................................................................28 第四章项目方案与评估.........................................................30 n曰21八J八J八84.1项目方案介绍.. 4.2项目方案选择方法 4.3项目成本估算..卜海交通大学工程硕士学位报告 4.3.1新购试验设备方案...................................................................................................................32 4.3.2原设备升级改造方案...............................................................................................................34 4.3.3年度费用对比...........................................................................................................................34 4.4项目收益预估..............................................................................................................................35 4.5项目经济效益评价......................................................................................................................36 4.5.1现金流量...................................................................................................................................36 4.5.2净现值.......................................................................................................................................37 4.5.3内部收益率...............................................................................................................................37 4.6项目不确定性分析......................................................................................................................38 4.6.1盈亏平衡分析...........................................................................................................................38 4.6.2敏感性分析...............................................................................................................................39 4.7项目社会效益评价......................................................................................................................43 第五章结论...........................................................................45