.,贝坦坦旦旦旦坦旦,.,坦 摘任石3石 1997年,中国明确了把社会统筹和个人账户相结合的模式作为养老保险制 度改革的目标模式,实现从传统的现收现付制向部分积累制的转变然而,人 口老龄化!隐性债务显性化及个人账户空帐运转,种种压力却使传统的公共养 老保障制度在财政上出现了支付危机由此引发的如何增加养老保险收入,填 补基金缺口,维持基本养老保障制度的话题成为政府!理论界讨论的热点 与此同时,企业养老保险缴费率提升空间缩小;扩大养老覆盖面存在长期 缺口隐患;提前退休现象严重!女性退休年龄偏低的现实,更是对原本紧张的 养老保险基金雪上加霜上述背景为中国推迟退休年龄方案的讨论提供了必要 的现实依据 本文围绕养老基金支付缺口I.P]题,在借鉴国内外学者相关看法与见解的基 础上,深入分析了在中国推行延长退休年龄方案的可行性条件并运用保险精 算的理论知识,分别测算出女性每提高一岁及以60岁为起点同时提高男女退休 年龄对解决当前社会统筹基金缺口,降低制度赡养比以及企业缴费率的影响效 果目的是为推迟退休年龄方案的制定与实施提供有力的理论依据 报告第一章介绍推迟退休建议提出的原由,并介绍国内外关于退休年龄问 题的研究动态纵观国内外学者建议发现,目前选择改革最佳时机,提高退休 年龄是学术界的主流观点 基于此,第二章开始进入中国目前退休年龄现状介绍,从中国的现存状况 入手分析推迟退休的必要性 综合以上背景,第三章从人口平均预期寿命的延长;弥补人口老龄化所引 致的劳动力资源不足;高学历人群的初始就业年龄偏大等几方面定性分析了退 休年龄推迟的可行性 第四章做了定量分析,针对不同的退休年龄组合测算了推迟退休所产生的 影l句 第五章得出结论,并依据分析对延长退休年龄的具体方案,提供几点有益 的政策建议,同时点明报告的不足之处总之,我认为在充分考虑人口!社会! 吞摘要 ,闷甲旦坦坦旦旦,旦旦旦旦月旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦旦 经济等因素基础上,推迟法定退休年龄将被迟早提上议事日程 本文的创新点在于,切合实际提出不同的退休年龄组合,并在结合实事背 景基础上设定假设条件先从定性的角度简单论证了文章观点,而后在定性的 基础上进行定量分析两种分析方法的结合,给大家一个客观!直接的认识, 进而得出推迟退休方案的可行性结论 关键词:退休年龄,制度赡养率,企业缴费率ABSTRACT ABSTRACT In1997,ChinahasbeenelearaboutthereformgoalPattemofseeurityPension system,WhichunifiesthesocialoverallPlanandindividualaceounts,andhas realizedthetransformationfromthetraditionalPay一as一you一90systemtoPartial aeeumulationssystem.However,theagingofthePoPulation,thedominantehange ofhiddendebtandtheelnPtyoPerationofindividualaceounts,havePutthe traditionalPubliePensionProteetionsystemintoafinaneialerisisofPayments.This gaverisetothediseussioningovernJ肌entandtheoretiealeireleabouthowto inereasePensicnin盯aneeineo拼e,fillthegaPandmaintainthebasicinsuranee Pensionsystem. Atthesametime,thesPaceofeorporatePensioninsuraneePaymenirate narrowing,exPandingthePensioneoverage,Whiehmayleadtothehiddendangers oflong一termgaPs,therealityofearlyretirementPhenomenonseriouslyandlow retirementageforwomen,madetheoriginaltightinsuxaneePensionfundsworsen. Andthen,thediseussionsonthePlantoPostPoneretirementagehavebeenProvided theneeessarybasisforreality. Tightlyaroundpensionfundsp叮g叩,如donthebasisofdomestieandforeign seholars.relevantviews,thisPaPerhasanalyzedthefeasibilityoftheextensionof theretiremeniageinPresenieonditions.Usingtheoretical劫owledgeofinsurance aetuarial,thearticlehasmeasuredeffeetsabouthowtosolvethee叮entshortageof socialPoolingfundsandredueesystemmaintenaneeandthePaymenirateof enterprise,whenfemale.5agewereincreasedbyoneyearanda60一year一oldasa startingPoini,thenmaleandfemale.5retirementagewereraisedatthesametime. ThismethodwasaimedtoProvidestrongtheoretiealbasisfortheformulationand imPlementationofProgramsbyPostPoningretirementage. TheartieleinitiallyiniroducedreasonsofPostPoningretirementageinehaPter 1.Andthestudyoftheretirementageathomeandabroadwasintrodueed.Takingan overviewofdomestieandforeignseholars.suggestions,而5PaPerPointedthathow i !创ABSTRACT toehoosethebesttimeforreform,thenraisetheretirementage15theacademie mainstreamviewPoint. Inviewofthis,then,ChaPter11hasbeguntoenterChineseeurrentstatusofthe retiremelltage.Starting碗hthecurrenieonditionofehina,theartieleanalyzedthe neeessityofPostPoningretiremeniage. Withtheabovebaekground,inehaPter111,the叭ieleinirodueedmany Phenomena,suehastheaveragelifeexPeetancyextending,laekingoflaborforee resourceseausedbytheagingofthePoPulation,highlyedueatederowds,initial workageolderandotherasPeets.ThesewereusedtoProvethefeasibilityof PostPoningretirementage. AquantitativeanalysiswasdoneinchaPterIV.TheartielemeasuredtheimPact causedbythedelayedretiremeni,withdifferenteombinationsofretirementage. TheconelusionwasmadeinehaPterV.Ultimately,onthebasisofanalysis, someusefulPolieyrecollllnendationswereProvidedforsPecifiePrograms.Aithe sametime,theinadequaeiesofthePaPerwerePoinied.Inshort,1thinkthatfully takingintoaccoUntthePoPulation,soeiety,eeonomicandotherfactors,thestrategy ofdelayingthestatutoryretirementagewillbesoonerorlaterPutontheagenda. TheinnovationofthisPaPer15thatdifferentretirementageeombinationswere PutbyPractieesandinthelightofPractiealsetassumPtionsweremade.Firstly,the artielevieWPointwasdemonstratedsimPlyinthequalitativePersPeetive.Andthen quantitativeanalyseswereaehieved.Theeombinationsoftwoanalyticalmethods, giveusanobjeetive,directawareness,andtheneometothefeasibilityeonelusionof theProgramofPostPoningretirementage. KeyWords:retirementage,systemmainienancerate,enterprisePaymentrate目录 里三里旦口口绝旦绝巴巴巴巴巴里巴巴巴巴里里旦巴里里旦里里巴里三里巴巴巴旦竺巴巴竺竺巴竺竺巴巴巴里竺巴巴巴巴竺巴巴巴里里里巴巴里里里里里里里巴里里巴里里里巴里巴巴里旦巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴巴三巴巴巴 目录 第l章引言............................................................,...................1 1.1问题的提出................................................................................................1 1.1.1人口老龄化问题凸显.....................................................................1 1.1.2隐性债务显现化!个人账户空帐运转.........................................2 1.2国内外研究回顾及实践动态....................................................................4 1.2.1国外的研究动态综述.....................................................................4 1.2.2国内的研究动态综述..............,................................................5 第2章中国目前退休年龄现状分析..............................................8 2.1中国退休制度中退休年龄的演变..........................................,...........8 2.1.1从建国初期到改革开放之前.........................................................8 2.1.2改革开放后至今.............................................................................8 2.2有关退休年龄调整讨论的背景................................................................9 2.2.1非正常退休现象严重.....................................................................9 2.2.2中国企业缴费率上升空间较小...................................................10 2.2.3扩大基本养老保险覆盖面的现状...............................................11 2.2.4提高法定退休年龄与缴费率!赡养率!替代率.......................12 第3章推迟退休年龄的可行性....................................................15 3.1退休年龄的决定因素..............................................................................15 3.2推迟法定退休年龄的可行性..................................................................16 3.2.1人口平均预期寿命的延长...........................................................16 3.2.2弥补劳动力资源的不足.........................................,...............18 3.2.3中国高学历群体的初始就业年龄偏大.......................................19 3.2.4降低老年人口抚养比...................................................................20 3.2.5实现男女就业年龄平等..............................,..........................22 第4章推迟退休年龄效果分析....................................................24 否目录 竺一~巴巴巴:~~~里一巴巴巴巴旦三巴口巴竺竺里里巴巴旦纽里竺里绝里巴奥吧里里旦绝巨里巴里绝里生巴竺 4.1调整退休年龄的原则二,..,................................................................24 4.1.1因行业制宜的原则.......................................................................24 4.1.2与时俱进的原则.........,...........................................................24 4.1.3适度调整!梯度对接原则.......................,.............................24 4.2不同退休年龄组合方案对社会统筹基金收支的影响..........................25 4.2.1社会统筹基金收支的计算方法...................................................25 4.2.2前提假设.....................................................,..................#....26 4.2.3测算结果.......................................................#....#27 4.2.4结论分析............................................................................#....;,31 4.3不同退休年龄组合方案对制度赡养比的影响.,-..........,.,....,.,.32 4.3.1基本假设......................................................................................#32 4.3.2统计结果.,..,........................................,...................33 4.3.3结论分析........................................................-..................#..#34 4.4不同退休年龄组合方案对企业缴费率的影响............!...................35 4.4.1基本假设.............................................................................#..#35 4.4.2计算结果................................................................#....#.#.36 4.4.3结论分析............................................................................,....36 第5章全文总结二.....................................#38 5.1总结..........................................................................................................38 5.2建议............................,.......,二,....................................,.....39 5.2.1强调推迟女性退休年龄重要性...................................................39 5.2.2逐步提高法定退休年龄的方案建议...........................................39 5.2.3建立激励相容的养老金给付机制...............................................40 5.2.4推行弹性退休制度..,.........,..............................................40 5.2.5加大监管力度,有效控制非正常退休现象...............................41 5.3不足.........,..........................................................................................41