近年来，钢材市场的大起大落，与国家政治政策、经济政策紧密相连，钢材 作为重要大宗商品之一，其价格的波动，大方面是关系到国家经济策略，小方面 关系到人民生活水平。目前我国钢铁行业要想获得进一步的发展面临着钢铁总体 生产能力过剩、低端钢材价格波动浮动大、企业盈亏不确定性加剧、钢铁企业需 求与供应的产品在国际中缺乏议价能力等严峻问题。钢铁企业要走向国际化，则 人民币汇率波动给企业造成的成本、利润的影响是首先要面对的问题。所以，钢 铁企业急需建立风险预防措施来应对人民币汇率波动可能带来的经营风险。人民 币汇率波动作为一个影响钢企成本、利润波动的重要因素，很有必要做专项研究。 本文首先介绍了该论文的选题大背景及存在的现实意义、国内外专家学者对 人民币汇率波动方面做过的研究综合论述、内容概况、使用的方法及分析大概框 架；其次，从研究人民币汇率波动的理论情况以及近 20 年的汇率走势图着手分析， 并根据马歇尔-勒纳条件以及 J 曲线效应等理论简要分析近年来汇率波动对我国钢 铁行业整体的进出口的影响；再次，选取不同地域、规模基本一致的两大企业--- 敬业钢铁以及 X 钢铁为例，通过对敬业钢铁以及 X 钢铁的近 8 年的实际进出口数 据，进一步细化对比分析得出人民币汇率波动因素对敬业钢铁以及 X 钢铁进口额 的影响分别为 62.74%、51.35%；出口额的影响分别为 70.34%、52.69%；进出口差 额的影响分别为 68.37%、56.22%，说明人民币汇率波动因素对敬业钢铁的进出口 业务影响明显大于对 X 钢铁的进出口业务影响。 总之，近期国际政治、经济环境变动剧烈。尤其自 2018 年 3 月 1 日美宣布对 中国发起的贸易战到 2018 年 7 月 6 日中午 12 点正式开始对 340 亿美元中国商品 加征关税，包含对钢铁征收 25%的进口关税以及 2018 年 9 月 17 日特朗普宣布 9 月 24 日起对 2000 亿美元中国商品加征关税，贸易战逐步加码以及其他国际政治 经济贸易大事件，对我国钢企造成一定的影响。贸易战不仅仅对中美贸易领域的 影响巨大，更是一场大国间的综合较量。贸易战反映出我国对“美元体系”的依赖程 度，对美元的依赖程度导致人民币汇率波动幅度增加，汇率风险增加。面对世界 政治格局、经济格局的剧烈变动，不同的企业，采取不同的经营策略应对，其产 生的结果也是相差甚远。本文通过对比分析，最后得出 X 钢铁无论是企业文化、企业经营目标、海外市场定位方面还是企业高层对金融市场的认知、维系海外客 户的方式、企业金融从业人员数量、贸易融资业务运作熟练程度等方面均比敬业 钢铁更侧重国际化、资产化的战略部署。正是由于以上经营差异性存在，X 钢铁 在进出口业务过程中，对外汇风险有更灵活多样的方案应对，所以，人民币汇率 波动对 X 钢铁的影响要远远小于对敬业钢铁的影响。 关键词，汇率波动；钢铁企业；进出口贸易Abstract In recent years, the fluctuation of steel market is closely connected with national political policies and economic policies. As one of the important bulk commodities, the price of steel concerns the national economic strategy on a higher level, and concerns the people's living standard on a light level. At present, for further development, China's steel industry needs face serious problems such as excessive steel production capacity, great price fluctuation of low-end steel, intensified uncertainty of the enterprise profit and loss, lack of bargaining power of the steel enterprise demands and the products supplied in the international, etc. If the steel enterprise wants to moves toward internationalization, the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the costs and profits of the enterprise is the first problem to be faced. Therefore, the steel enterprise urgently needs to establish risk prevention measures to deal with the operational risks that RMB exchange rate fluctuation may bring. As an important factor affecting the cost and profit fluctuation of steel enterprise, it is necessary to conduct special research on the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. This paper first introduces the background of the topic and the practical significance of the paper, comprehensive review, content general situation and the methods applied of the study done by domestic and foreign experts and scholars on the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and analysis of the framework; Secondly, from the theoretical situation of RMB exchange rate fluctuation, the exchange rate trend chart in the past 20 years, Marshall-Lerner condition, J-curve effects and other theories, this thesis analyzes the influence of exchange rate fluctuations in recent years on the current overall situation of import and export of China's steel enterprises; Thirdly, it selects two major enterprises in different places and with the similar scales- take Jingye Iron and Steel and X Iron and Steel as an example, through further detailed analysis and comparison between the actual import and export data of Jingye Iron and Steel and X Steel in nearly 8 years, it gets the conclusion that the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the amount of imports of Jingye Steel and X Steel is respectively 62.74%and 51.35%; the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the amount of exports is respectively 70.34% and 52.69%; the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the gap between imports and exports is 68.37% and 56.22%. It states that the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on import and export business of Jingye Iron and Steel is significantly greater than that on X Steel . In short, recent international political and economic environment has changed dramatically. Especially the event that the United States announced the trade war against China since March 1, 2018 and officially began to impose tariffs on US$34 billion of Chinese goods at 12 noon on July 6, 2018 including an important event that impose 25% tariff on steel and President Trump announced on September 18, 2018 to impose tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese goods and other major political and economic events, have had a certain impact on China's steel enterprises. The trade war has not only had a huge impact on Sino-US trade, but is also a comprehensive contest between great nations. The trade war reflects China's dependence on US dollar system, and the dependence causes the increase of fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate and exchange rate risk. In today’s world, political structure and economic pattern have undergone dramatic changes. Different enterprises have adopted different coping strategies, and the results produced are greatly different. Through comparative analysis, it is concluded that X Steel is more focused on international and capitalized strategic deployment than Jingye Iron and Steel no matter on corporate culture, corporate business objectives, overseas market positioning, corporate high-level management’s awareness of financial market, the way to maintain overseas customers, corporate financial practitioners, the operation level of trade financing business, etc. Due to above differences in operations, X Steel has a more flexible and diversified approaches to deal with foreign exchange risk in the process of import and export business. Therefore, the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on X Steel is far less than that on Jingye Steel . Keywords: exchange rate fluctuations; Steel enterprises; Import and export tradeI 目 录 第一章 绪 论.............................................................................................................. 1 一、研究背景和意义.................................................................................................. 1 二、国内外研究综述...........................................................................................................2 （一）国内研究综述.......................................................................................................2 （二）国外研究综述.............................................................................................. 3 三、研究内容及分析框架.......................................................................................... 4 （一）研究内容................................................................................................................4 （二） 研究方法及数据来源........................................................................................4 四、可能的创新与不足.......................................................................................................5 （一）可能的创新...........................................................................................................5 （二）存在的不足.................................................................................................. 5 第二章 人民币汇率波动分析及人民币汇率波动相关理论..........................................6 一、人民币汇率波动分析...................................................................................................6 （一）人民币汇率波动的理论分析.............................................................................6 （二）人民币汇率波动的趋势分析...................................................................... 7 二、人民币汇率波动对进出口贸易的相关理论综述...................................................8 （一）马歇尔-勒纳条件......................................................................................... 8 （二）J 曲线效应.............................................................................................................9 第三章 汇率波动对敬业钢铁及 X 钢铁进出口的影响..................................................11 一、我国钢铁基本情况介绍............................................................................................11 （一）钢铁行业总体情况.................................................................................... 11 （二）敬业钢铁基本情况介绍 ...................................................................................14 （三）X 钢铁基本情况介绍........................................................................................14 二、汇率波动对钢铁企业进出口的影响 ......................................................................14 （一）汇率波动对钢企进口铁矿石的影响..............................................................14 （二）汇率波动对钢企出口钢材的影响..................................................................19 （三）汇率波动对钢企进出口差额的影响........................................................ 21 三、汇总数据说明..............................................................................................................25II 第四章 汇率波动对敬业钢铁及 X 钢铁进出口影响分析及应对策略.......................26 一、汇率波动对敬业钢铁及 X 钢铁进出口影响分析................................................26 （一）进口铁矿石方面.................................................................................................26 （二）出口钢材方面.....................................................................................................29 （三）进出口差额方面........................................................................................ 31 二、敬业钢铁及 X 钢铁的经营差异性分析.................................................................32 （一）企业文化差异............................................................................................ 32 （二）客户关系维护程度差异............................................................................ 33 （三）企业高层对金融市场认知差异 ......................................................................33 （四）经营目标差异............................................................................................ 35 （五）企业金融从业人员数量差异.................................................................... 35 （六）贸易融资业务运作程度差异...........................................................................36 （七）地理位置差异.....................................................................................................37 （八）海外市场定位差异............................................................................................37 三、敬业钢铁及 X 钢铁应对汇率波动的对策 ............................................................38 （一）关注国内外政治以及经济政策................................................................ 38 （二）建立起完善的汇率风险应对方案..................................................................39 （三）以匠心精神打造产品、提高企业产品质量及国际竞争力.......................39 （四）关注人民币国际化、“一揽子”货币趋势发展.............................................40 （五）利用“互联网+”的模式，彻底整合企业经营模式......................................40 第五章 结论及展望................................................................................................................42 一、本文结论......................................................................................................................42 二、论文展望......................................................................................................................43