随着我国经济持续、高速的发展以及全球化步伐的不断深入，交通运输行业的重 要性愈发凸显,近年来的发展也是有目共睹。在此过程中我国航空运输行业也经历了 由垄断走向市场化的过程，伴随着人均可支配收入的不断提高，航空出行由以前的奢 侈品成为现在的必需品，市场规模不断扩大。从竞争环境来看，一方面由于国家政策 的放开，部分民营航空公司先后进入此行业，全行业参与公司的增加使得国内民用航 空运输机队规模不断扩大，航空公司间竞争不断加剧；另一方面由于高铁网络的全面 建设与覆盖对民航运输业的冲击也是非常大，尤其对短途航线的影响极其严重。竞争 环境的不断变化，迫使航空公司需要加强内部管理的优化，在服务质量、收益管理等 方面加速与市场接轨。 A 航空公司作为一家中型航空公司，现在正面临着巨大的市场竞争压力，由于航 空公司运营条件的特殊性，从硬件角度看其对航线资源依赖较重，从软件角度看航空 公司要想提升企业核心竞争力，做好航线收益管理是提升企业经济总收益，增强综合 竞争力最有效，最直接的方法。 本文主要基于收益管理理论四大核心要素，利用数据挖掘的工具，系统性的分析 了 A 航空公司收益管理目前的现状及存在的问题，并重点运用 PEST 外部宏观环境分 析模型，从政治环境、经济环境、社会文化环境、技术环境等不同角度和对 A 航空公 司收益管理的必要性和可行性进行分析。论文通过收益管理理论与方法，结合文献综 述、数据挖掘、模型设计等方法，从以下四个方面具体研究了收益优化的方案，①对 整体航线市场需求的预测，②对市场细分的分析，③对票价策略的研究，④对舱位控 制的优化，也是完成收益管理的必要手段。 本文试图从目标市场、需求预测、票价制定及舱位控制等方面对 A 航空公司进行 全面的潜力挖掘，利用自身数据库的优势，通过技术和数学方法极大的提高收益管理 能力，结合企业实际情况，从人力、财力、技术和制度等四个方面制定保障措施。 关键词，收益管理；聚类方法；灰色模型；决策树方法III Abstract With the sustained and rapid development of China's economy and the deepening pace of globalization, the importance of the transportation industry has become increasingly prominent, and its development in recent years is also obvious to all. In this process, China's air transport industry has also experienced a process from monopoly to marketization. With the continuous improvement of per capita disposable income, air travel has become a necessity from the previous luxury goods, and the market scale has been expanding. From the point of view of competition environment, on the one hand, due to the liberalization of national policies, some private airlines have entered the industry one after another, and the increase of the whole industry's participation in the company has made the domestic civil aviation fleet expanding and the competition among airlines intensifying; on the other hand, due to the comprehensive construction and coverage of high-speed rail network for civil aviation. The impact of the transport industry is also very large, especially on short-distance routes. The changing competitive environment forces airlines to strengthen the optimization of internal management and speed up the integration with the market in terms of service quality and revenue management. As a medium-sized airline, A airline is facing enormous market competition pressure. Because of the particularity of airline operating conditions, it relies heavily on airline resources from the hardware point of view. From the software point of view, airlines want to enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises, and to do a good job in airline revenue management is to enhance the total economy of enterprises. The most effective and direct way to enhance the competitiveness of integration is to gain profits. Based on the four core elements of revenue management theory and using data mining tools, this paper systematically analyses the current situation and existing problems of revenue management of A Airlines, and emphatically uses PEST external macro-environment analysis model from different angles such as political environment,IV economic environment, social and cultural environment, technological environment, etc. Degree and analyze the necessity and feasibility of revenue management of A airline. Through the theory and method of revenue management, combined with literature review, data mining, model design and other methods, this paper studies the scheme of revenue optimization from the following four aspects: ① the analysis of market segmentation, secondly, ② the forecast of market demand for the whole route, ③ the study of fare strategy, ④the optimization of space control are also the necessary means to complete revenue management. This thesis attempts to tap the potential of A Airlines from the target market, demand forecasting, fare formulation and space control, make use of the advantages of its own database, greatly improve the ability of revenue management through technical and mathematical methods, and formulate safeguard measures from human, financial, technological and institutional aspects in light of the actual situation of the enterprise. Keywords，Revenue Management; Clustering; Gray Model; Decision Tree Method目录 致谢.........................................................................................................................................I 摘要........................................................................................................................................II Abstract................................................................................................................................. III 第 1 章 绪论..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景及选题意义..............................................................................................................1 1.1.1 选题背景...........................................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究目的...........................................................................................................................2 1.1.3 研究意义...........................................................................................................................3 1.2 国内外研究现状......................................................................................................................4 1.2.1 国外研究现状...................................................................................................................4 1.2.2 国内研究现状...................................................................................................................4 1.2.3 国内外研究综评...............................................................................................................6 1.3 研究内容及框架......................................................................................................................6 1.3.1 研究内容...........................................................................................................................6 1.3.2 基本框架...........................................................................................................................7 1.4 研究方法及创新点..................................................................................................................9 1.4.1 研究方法...........................................................................................................................9 1.4.2 本文创新点.......................................................................................................................9 第 2 章 相关理论概述........................................................................................................10 2.1 收益管理理论........................................................................................................................10 2.1.1 收益管理理论的产生和发展.........................................................................................10 2.1.2 适用收益管理的行业特点.............................................................................................12 2.1.3 收益管理优化框架.........................................................................................................13 2.1.4 收益管理的流程.............................................................................................................15 2.2 数据分析方法........................................................................................................................16 2.2.1 聚类分析方法.................................................................................................................16 2.2.2 决策树分析方法.............................................................................................................162.2.3 灰色模型方法.................................................................................................................17 第 3 章 A 航空公司外部环境分析....................................................................................18 3.1 A 航空公司企业背景介绍......................................................................................................18 3.1.1 公司简介.........................................................................................................................18 3.1.2 公司组织结构.................................................................................................................18 3.1.3 公司主营业务.................................................................................................................18 3.1.4 公司经营业绩.................................................................................................................19 3.2 A 航空公司外部环境分析......................................................................................................19 3.2.1 法律政策环境.................................................................................................................19 3.2.2 经济环境.........................................................................................................................20 3.2.3 社会环境.........................................................................................................................22 3.2.4 科技环境.........................................................................................................................23 3.3 A 航空公司收益管理的必要性和可行性..............................................................................23 3.3.1 收益管理的必要性.........................................................................................................24 3.3.2 收益管理的可行性.........................................................................................................24 第 4 章 A 航空公司收益管理的现状及存在的问题分析................................................26 4.1 A 航空公司收益管理的现状.................................................................................................26 4.1.1 客流分布现状.................................................................................................................26 4.1.2 目标市场现状.................................................................................................................26 4.1.3 票价制定现状.................................................................................................................28 4.1.4 舱位控制现状.................................................................................................................29 4.2 A 航空公司目前存在的问题..................................................................................................30 4.2.1 需求预测难度大.............................................................................................................30 4.2.2 市场细分及旅客行为特征分析不深入.........................................................................30 4.2.3 机票定价缺乏客观性.....................................................................................................31 4.2.4 舱位控制不合理.............................................................................................................33 第 5 章 A 航空公司收益管理的优化研究........................................................................34 5.1 A 航空公司客运需求预测的优化研究..................................................................................355.1.1 A 航空公司客流影响因素分析.......................................................................................35 5.1.2 基于灰色模型方法的客源预测.....................................................................................38 5.1.3 分析结果制定划分不同的订座期.................................................................................41 5.2 A 航空公司客运市场细分方案的优化研究..........................................................................42 5.2.1 A 航空公司目标市场的特点...........................................................................................42 5.2.2 基于聚类分析及统计数据的方法将旅客分类.............................................................43 5.2.3 分析结果找准新的市场定位.........................................................................................48 5.3 A 航班公司机票定价的优化研究..........................................................................................48 5.3.1 A 航空公司票价制定的影响因素分析...........................................................................48 5.3.2 基于决策树方法研究区间价格.....................................................................................50 5.3.3 不同的订座期匹配相应的区间价格.............................................................................53 5.4 A 航空公司收益管理舱位控制的优化研究..........................................................................54 5.4.1 多等级价格下的存量分配.............................................................................................54 5.4.2 总收益随剩余座位数和时间变化的策略.....................................................................55 5.4.3 预期的舱位数量匹配对应的目标市场及票价区间.....................................................56 第 6 章 A 航空公司收益管理优化方案的实施................................................................58 6.1 收益管理优化方案实施的计划............................................................................................58 6.1.1 目标导向.........................................................................................................................58 6.1.2 时间计划.........................................................................................................................58 6.2 收益管理优化方案实施的保障............................................................................................59 6.2.1 人力保障.........................................................................................................................59 6.2.2 财务保障.........................................................................................................................59 6.2.3 技术保障.........................................................................................................................59 6.2.4 制度保障.........................................................................................................................60 6.2.5 其他职能部门支持.........................................................................................................60 第 7 章 结论与展望............................................................................................................61 7.1 结论........................................................................................................................................61 7.2 本文研究中的不足................................................................................................................627.3 展望........................................................................................................................................62