石油是重要的能源和基础原材料，其价格波动对中国石化企业具有重大影响。随着 世界产业结构格局的不断调整，高能耗产业逐步转移至发展中国家，国际油价波动对能 耗较高、原油进口依存度较大的发展中国家经济影响较大。而最大的发展中国家就是中 国，中国是世界上最大的石油进口国，海关总署数据显示中国原油对外依存度已从 2017 年的 67.4%，增长至 2018 年的 72.3%。进口依存度的提高将导致国际油价波动对国内 经济的影响更加显著。近年来国际石油问题研究的一个重点是重新审视导致国际油价波 动的结构性原因，结构性冲击对国际油价波动和我国石化企业带来的影响也在逐渐地増 大。石化企业不仅作为能源的主要供应者，更是材料工业的支柱之一。因此，从我国实 际出发，研究结构性冲击对我国石化企业绩效带来的影响，理清结构性冲击、国际油价 波动与我国石化企业绩效的关系，对我国石化企业的持续稳定发展意义重大。 本文基于油价冲击分解视角，研究结构性冲击对我国石化企业绩效的影响。首先介 绍研究背景与意义、国内外研究现状及评述，着重阐释结构性冲击如何影响我国石化企 业绩效，明确研究内容、方法和技术路线；在此基础上阐述结构性冲击、国际油价和石 化企业相关概念，阐释相关理论；其次，对结构性冲击、国际油价波动与我国石化企业 绩效的关系进行分析，提出研究假设，构建被解释变量为石化企业绩效，解释变量为经 济总需求冲击，石油供给冲击和石油特定需求冲击的我国石化企业绩效影响的回归模 型；再次，对结构性冲击、国际油价波动与我国石化企业绩效之间的关系进行实证分析， 明确数据来源和样本的选择，利用 STATA 软件进行描述性统计和相关性分析，在此基 础上对结构性冲击影响我国石化企业绩效的主效应和国际油价波动的中介效应进行检 验；最后，针对第 4 章的实证分析结果，从企业角度针对石油供给冲击对我国石化企业 绩效的负向影响，提出我国石化企业应对结构性冲击提高企业绩效的对策。 关键词：结构性冲击；国际油价波动；石化企业；企业绩效东北石油大学硕士研究生学位论文 III Study on the Impact of Structural Shock on the Performance of China's Petrochemical Enterprises—— The Mediating Effect of International Oil Price Fluctuation ABSTRACT Oil is an important energy and basic raw material, and its price fluctuations have a major impact on Sinopec enterprises. With the continuous adjustment of the world industrial structure, high-energy industries have gradually shifted to developing countries, and international oil price fluctuations have a greater impact on the economies of developing countries with higher energy consumption and greater dependence on crude oil imports. The largest developing country is China. China is the world's largest oil importer. The data of the General Administration of Customs shows that China's foreign oil dependence has increased from 67.4% in 2017 to 72.3% in 2018. The increase in import dependence will lead to a more significant impact of international oil price volatility on the domestic economy. In recent years, a key point in the study of international petroleum issues has been to re-examine the structural causes of fluctuations in international oil prices. The impact of structural shocks on international oil price volatility and China's petrochemical enterprises has also gradually increased. Petrochemical companies are not only a major supplier of energy, but also a pillar of the materials industry. Therefore, starting from the reality of our country, studying the impact of structural shocks on the performance of China's petrochemical enterprises, clarifying the relationship between structural shocks, international oil price fluctuations and the performance of China's petrochemical enterprises is of great significance to the sustainable and stable development of China's petrochemical enterprises. Based on the perspective of oil price shock decomposition, this paper studies the impact of structural shocks on the performance of China's petrochemical enterprises. Firstly, it introduces the research background and significance, the research status and comments at home and abroad, and focuses on how structural impact affects the performance of China's petrochemical enterprises, and clarifies the research content, methods and technical routes. On this basis, it expounds the structural impact, international oil prices and petrochemical enterprises. Concept, explain relevant theory; Secondly, analyze the relationship between structural shock, international oil price volatility and the performance of China's petrochemical enterprises, put forward research hypotheses, construct explanatory variables for petrochemical enterprise performance, explain variables for economic aggregate demand东北石油大学硕士研究生学位论文 IV shock, and oil supply shock Regression model of the impact of China's petrochemical enterprises on the impact of specific oil demand; again, empirical analysis of the relationship between structural shocks, international oil price volatility and China's petrochemical enterprise performance, clear data source and sample selection, using STATA software Descriptive statistics and correlation analysis. On this basis, the main effects of structural impacts on the performance of China's petrochemical enterprises and the mediating effects of international oil price fluctuations are tested. Finally, for the empirical analysis of Chapter 4, from the perspective of enterprises, Oil supply Click negative impact on China's petrochemical business performance of proposed countermeasures to deal with the structural impact of China's petrochemical enterprises to improve business performance. Keywords: structural shock; international oil price fluctuations; petrochemical enterprises; firm performance东北石油大学硕士研究生学位论文 V 创新点摘要 1．从国际油价冲击分解的角度，研究结构性冲击、国际油价波动与我国石化企业 绩效的关系。将结构性冲击分为石油供给冲击、经济总需求冲击和石油特定需求冲击， 去探究结构性冲击对我国石化企业绩效的影响，提出我国石化企业降低结构性冲击提高 企业绩效的对策，为实现石化企业绩效的提升提供理论支持。 2．构建结构性冲击对我国石化企业绩效影响的回归模型，确定结构性冲击、国际 油价波动和石化企业绩效的具体测度变量，通过实证分析得到结构性冲击影响我国石化 企业绩效的传导路径。东北石油大学硕士研究生学位论文 VI 目 录 学位论文独创性声明.................................................................................................................I 学位论文使用授权声明.............................................................................................................I 摘要........................................................................................................................................II ABSTRACT.............................................................................................................................III 创新点摘要................................................................................................................................V 目 录......................................................................................................................................VI 图表目录................................................................................................................................VIII 第 1 章 绪论...............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景与研究意义....................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1.2 研究意义................................................................................................................................ 2 1.2 国内外研究述评............................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 国外研究现状........................................................................................................................ 2 1.2.2 国内研究现状........................................................................................................................ 4 1.2.3 评价........................................................................................................................................ 6 1.3 研究内容与研究方法....................................................................................................................... 6 1.3.1 研究内容................................................................................................................................ 6 1.3.2 研究方法................................................................................................................................ 6 1.3.3 技术路线................................................................................................................................ 7 第 2 章 相关概念与理论基础...................................................................................................9 2.1 相关概念........................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1.1 结构性冲击............................................................................................................................ 9 2.1.2 国际油价................................................................................................................................ 9 2.1.3 石化企业................................................................................................................................ 9 2.1.4 企业绩效.............................................................................................................................. 10 2.2 相关理论......................................................................................................................................... 11 2.2.1 可耗竭资源理论.................................................................................................................. 11 2.2.2 国际油价决定机制.............................................................................................................. 11 2.3 本章小结......................................................................................................................................... 13 第 3 章 结构性冲击对我国石化企业绩效影响的.................................................................14 研究假设及模型构建...............................................................................................................14 3.1 结构性冲击对我国石化企业绩效影响的研究假设...................................................................... 14 3.1.1 经济总需求冲击对我国石化企业绩效影响...................................................................... 14 3.1.2 石油供给冲击对我国石化企业绩效的影响...................................................................... 14 3.1.3 石油特定需求冲击对我国石化企业绩效的影响.............................................................. 14 3.2 结构性冲击对国际油价波动影响的研究假设............................................................................. 15 3.2.1 经济总需求冲击对国际油价波动的影响.......................................................................... 15 3.2.2 石油供给冲击对国际油价的影响...................................................................................... 15 3.2.3 石油特定需求冲击对国际油价波动的影响...................................................................... 16 3.3 国际油价波动对我国石化企业绩效影响的研究假设................................................................. 16 3.4 国际油价波动的中介作用的研究假设......................................................................................... 18 3.4.1 在经济总需求冲击对企业绩效影响中的中介作用.......................................................... 18东北石油大学硕士研究生学位论文 VII 3.4.2 在石油供给冲击对企业绩效影响中的中介作用.............................................................. 18 3.4.3 在石油特定需求冲击对企业绩效影响中的中介作用...................................................... 18 3.5 模型的构建..................................................................................................................................... 19 3.6 本章小节......................................................................................................................................... 22 第 4 章 结构性冲击对我国石化企业绩效影响的实证分析.................................................23 4.1 数据与样本..................................................................................................................................... 23 4.2 实证分析......................................................................................................................................... 23 4.2.1 描述性统计.......................................................................................................................... 23 4.2.2 相关性分析.......................................................................................................................... 24 4.2.3 主效应检验.......................................................................................................................... 25 4.2.4 中介效应检验...................................................................................................................... 26 4.2.5 结果讨论.............................................................................................................................. 29 4.4 本章小结......................................................................................................................................... 31 第 5 章 我国石化企业应对结构性冲击提高企业绩效的对策.............................................32 5.1 调整战略规划................................................................................................................................. 32 5.1.1 建立企业石油战略储备体系.............................................................................................. 32 5.1.2 积极进行战略变革.............................................................................................................. 32 5.1.3 开展战略联盟...................................................................................................................... 33 5.2 推进国际化经营............................................................................................................................. 33 5.2.1 充分利用资本运作.............................................................................................................. 33 5.2.2 与国际接轨.......................................................................................................................... 33 5.2.3 增加海外份额油.................................................................................................................. 34 5.3 本章小结......................................................................................................................................... 34 结 论.......................................................................................................................................35 作者简介、发表文章及研究成果目录...................................................................................36 致 谢.......................................................................................................................................37