为了进一步落实节能减排、推动可持续发展战略，2013 年 3 月 14 日中华 人民共和国工业和信息化部等 5 部门（公告 2013 年 15 号）发布《乘用车企 业平均燃料消耗量核算办法》。 该办法明确了各个汽车制造企业对生产和在 售车型油耗指标的要求。为了避免油耗不达标而带来的处罚，各个汽车制造 企业想尽各种技术方案来应对油耗的压力。 汽车尾气热量回收系统（Exhaust Heat Recovery System，以下简称 EHRS） 是一种在车辆冷启动和行驶过程中通过对尾气热量回收利用，而减少了车辆 对燃油消耗的一种创新型产品。该产品既可以帮助汽车企业应对日益严苛的 尾气排放控制的法规，也满足了消费者对于低油耗产品的市场需求。产品在 宏观层面符合国家正在大力推行的技术产品创新的发展战略。 本商业计划书旨在通过建立 F 公司 EHRS 的中国区事业部，加快 EHRS 产 品的设计研发、验证、生产和销售，来实现 EHRS 产品的完全本土化，增强 F 公司的竞争优势。本商业计划书制定了详细的营销计划，大力推广该产品， 以快速占领市场，满足我们的 OEM 客户和普通终端消费者对低油耗的产品需 求。该项目符合 F 公司的使命、愿景、价值和目标，并且实现了我们对客户 的承诺——提供最优的技术解决方案。其差异化的产品战略和未来全新的商 业模式将给 F 公司创造可观的经济价值和社会价值，是一个多赢的商业计划。 本商业计划书将详细的分析项目的外部机会、威胁和内部优势、劣势； 通过对市场需求和国内外的竞争分析，制定了独特的商业模式和详细的营销 计划；通过对公司内部的资源及价值链分析，确定了公司的最佳运营计划； 通过对项目投资和收益的估算，论证了财务方面项目的可行性；通过对项目 运行中的风险的评估，最大程度上减少了公司执行该战略所承担的风险。东华大学工商管理硕士学位报告 II 主要研究方法与关键技术路径如下， 1. 公司分析，包括市场销售数据、公司的财务数据以及 EHRS 项目的分 析。该部分将使用 VRIN 分析法、价值链分析法，确定项目目标及核心价值， 分析核心资源以及项目运行的内部优劣势。 2. 行业分析，通过对 F 公司市场部门的销售数据和宏观经济数据的分析， 确定了市场的需求和行业平均增长率。通过波特五力和 SLEPT 模型对微观及 宏观的外部环境的分析，确立了项目运行的外部机会和风险。 3. 客户分析，该部分对潜在的市场需求、容量进行了分析，然后使用调 查问卷和深度访谈、4C 市场研究等方法对 EHRS 的市场需求和应用前景进行 了分析研究。 4. 竞争分析，通过研究 F 公司市场部门提供的同类产品市场调研报告， 分析全球竞争对手的销量、销售价格和营销策略，然后制定 EHRS 产品在中 国市场的销售价格以及战略上的竞争策略。 5. 市场营销，该部分使用 STP 模型进行目标市场细分和定位；通过对 EHRS 产品生命周期的介绍，说明本项目的巨大的销售前景，然后利用 4P 方 法制定切实可行的营销计划。在渠道分析中，通过对公司传统价值链的分析， 改变了或者说拓宽了其商业渠道模式，由于在本商业计划中只分析了前五年 的经营状况，没有具体分析其创新的渠道模式，但它潜在的巨大商业价值可 期。 6. 运营分析，通过有效的整合现有资源，合理进行人员及设备的投资， 完善运营计划；通过对生产需求和人力资源分析，建立合理的组织结构；通 过对工艺路线、生产节拍的分析，合理规划生产线布局及产能计划。 7. 财务分析，对 F 公司的 EHRS 事业部进行了五年的财务预测与分析， 详细罗列了资金的投入和收益分配；本商业计划引入了战略风险的评估的概东华大学工商管理硕士学位报告 III 念，通过对公司 16 位专家级的员工的问卷调查，从公司的战略风险因素、外 部环境的风险因素和内部资源和竞争力三个方面进行评估打分，然后计算出 项目运行的风险系数。在定义各个风险因素的权重时采用德尔菲法，8 位公 司高管经过三轮的评估后达成对各个风险因素权重的趋于一致意见，该方法 可以有效消除内部的分歧，所得出的结果认可度、可信度高。该方法的具有 较好的操作性和实战性。通过公司内部的项目风险评估调查，更加客观的、 全面的评估该项目运行的风险大小以及项目可行性，避免了主观、偏面的论 断。 关键词 汽车尾气排放控制 热量回收系统 节能减排 商业模式 差异化产 品策略 多赢的商业计划东华大学工商管理硕士学位报告 IV Abstract In order to further implement energy saving and emission control and promote sustainable development strategy, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of People's Republic of China united 5 departments issued an announcement of Passenger Car Enterprise Average Fuel Consumption Calculation Method on March 14 th , 2013. The move had definitely expressed fuel consumption target of producing and selling vehicles for each automobile manufacturing enterprises. In order to avoid punishment caused by fuel consumption not met the requirement, automakers try all potential technical solutions to cope with the pressure of fuel consumption. Exhaust Heat Recovery System (hereinafter refers to EHRS) is a high-tech device which is a kind of innovative product to recover exhaust energy during engine cold start mainly, so as to reduce fuel consumption for vehicles. The product can cope with not only increasingly stringent automotive exhaust emission control regulations, but also to satisfy market demands for low fuel consumption products. The product, at a macro level, is keeping in line with the state of pushing forward the technology of the development strategy of product innovation. This business plan is to through establishing EHRS Chinese business unit to speed up the process of the product’s research and development, validation, production and sales, so that to fulfill EHRS completely localization in order to enhance F firm’s competitive power in Chinese local market. This business plan is to make a detailed marketing plan, to promote the product, quickly occupy the market, and meet OEM customers’ demands as well as ordinary terminal consumers’ demands for products in low fuel consumption. The plan is in accordance with the F Company’s mission, vision, values and goals, realizes company’s commitment to customers, which is to provide the most optimal technical solutions to customers, in the meanwhile the differentiated product strategy of F Company is able to create considerable economic value and social value. It is a win-win business strategy plan. This business plan will do a comprehensive analysis for external opportunities, threats as well as internal strengths, weaknesses; through analyzing the market demand, competition research of domestic and abroad, the plan developes an unique business model and precise marketing plan; through the东华大学工商管理硕士学位报告 V company's internal resources and value chain analysis, determine the company's operating strategy; based on the project investment and earnings estimates, fully demonstrates the feasibility of the project; based on risk analysis of the project operation , extremely reduced company’s strategic risks. The main research methods and key technological route are as follows: 1. Company’s Analysis, consisting of market sales data, the company's financial data, and the application of EHRS analysis. This part will utilize VRIN model analysis, value chain analysis, to determine the project target and core value, then evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of project through core resources competitiveness analysis. 2. Industry analysis: based on the company's Marketing Department sales data and analysis of macroeconomic data, determine the market needs and industry average growth rate. Through Porter’s Five Forces and SLEPT model of micro and macro analysis of the external environment, comprehends the external opportunities and risks. 3. Customer analysis. This part is to evaluate potential market demands and capacity, and then utilizes questionnaire, deeply discussion with customers and customer’s 4C study to determine the application prospects of EHRS. 4. The competitive analysis is to investigate market research report of F Company’s Marketing Department, analyze global competitors’ sales volume and selling price as well as marketing strategy, then formulates the domestic market selling price and competition strategy. 5. Market analysis: this part utilizes STP model to define target market segmentation and positioning, by lifecycle introduction of EHRS to demonstrate giant sales prospect, by 4P’s to analyze customer needs, eventually make the feasible marketing plan. In the analysis of place and distribution, after analyzed conventional value chain of firm’s, we changed or rather expanded its business distribution channel. Due to the business plan just analyzed operation situation of first 5 years, the detailed change of business model is not present, but the considerable market value should not be neglected. 6. Operation analysis is to effectively integrate existing resources, reasonable new personnel and equipment investment, improve the operating plan. Through analyzing the production requirements, and human resources, set up the reasonable organizational structure. Through the simulation of process route and takt time, reasonably projects production line layout, equipment investment and capability of production line.东华大学工商管理硕士学位报告 VI 7. Financial analysis is to analyze five-year financial forecast of EHRS business unit of F firm, detail the capital investment and profit distribution of each year; The business plan introduces the concept of strategy risks assessment, by questionnaire of 16 expert level employees, which are from 3 aspects, respectively strategy risk factors, external environmental risk factors and internal resource and competitive force to evaluate and grade, then compute the risk coefficient of program operation. Delphi method was adopted during evaluating weight of each factor, after 3 loops of evaluation, 8 high management met consensus to each factor’s weight in questionnaire. The method could help to eliminate internal divergence efficiently and eventually got credible results, the method possesses good operability and practical . Investigation of risks assessment is to avoid any subjective judgement, more objectively and systematically evaluate the risks as well as feasibility of this program. Keywords Exhaust emission control Exhaust Heat Recovery System energy saving and emission control Business mode Differentiation product strategy win-win Business Plan东华大学工商管理硕士学位报告 VII - 目录 摘要....................................................................................................................... I Abstract ................................................................................................................ IV 第一章绪论...........................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景和意义......................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景介绍 ...................................................................................1 1.1.2研究的意义 .......................................................................................4 1.2研究内容与研究路线..............................................................................6 1.2.1研究内容 ...........................................................................................6 1.2.2研究路线 ...........................................................................................7 第二章F 公司概况及 EHRS 项目分析................................................................9 2.1公司概述..................................................................................................9 2.1.1公司的使命愿景价值及战略目标 ...................................................9 2.1.2企业的伦理道德 .............................................................................10 2.1.3企业的社会责任 .............................................................................10 2.2EHRS 事业部项目介绍 ..........................................................................11 2.2.1EHRS 事业部的目标 .......................................................................11 2.2.2EHRS 事业部的项目主计划和关键时间节点 ...............................11 2.2.3EHRS 事业部成立成本结构 ...........................................................12 2.3EHRS 项目的客户价值主张 ..................................................................12 2.3.1理解客户价值主张 .........................................................................12 2.3.2EHRS 项目的客户价值主张 ...........................................................13 2.4EHRS 产品介绍 ......................................................................................14 2.4.1EHRS 产品简介 ...............................................................................14 2.4.2EHRS 的应用介绍 ...........................................................................16 2.5F 公司内部资源及优劣势分析 ..............................................................18 2.5.1内部优势分析 .................................................................................19 2.5.2内部关键资源 VRIN 分析..............................................................22 2.5.3内部的劣势分析 .............................................................................24 2.5.4内部劣势的应对策略 .....................................................................24 2.6本章小结................................................................................................25 第三章行业分析.................................................................................................27 3.1行业概述................................................................................................27东华大学工商管理硕士学位报告 VIII 3.1.1排气系统行业概述 .........................................................................27 3.1.2EHRS 的市场需求描述 ...................................................................30 3.2行业的微观环境分析............................................................................34 3.2.1行业微观供应链分析 .....................................................................35 3.2.2五力模型分析 .................................................................................36 3.3宏观经济环境分析................................................................................39 3.4行业的机会与威胁................................................................................40 3.4.1外部机会 .........................................................................................40 3.4.2外部威胁 .........................................................................................42 3.5本章小结................................................................................................43 第四章客户分析.................................................................................................45 4.1潜在市场分析........................................................................................45 4.1.1传统内燃机乘用车市场 .................................................................45 4.1.2混合动力车市场 .............................................................................46 4.2客户需求分析........................................................................................48 4.2.1深度访谈法 .....................................................................................49 4.2.2问卷调查法 .....................................................................................49 4.2.3客户 4C 分析...................................................................................52 4.3本章小结................................................................................................56 第五章竞争分析.................................................................................................57 5.1主要竞争对手分析................................................................................57 5.1.1竞品优劣势分析 .............................................................................57 5.1.2定价策略分析 .................................................................................59 5.1.3替代品分析 .....................................................................................60 5.2SWOT 分析和战略方向 .........................................................................63 5.2.1SWOT 分析 ......................................................................................63 5.2.2战略选择 .........................................................................................64 5.3竞争优势及竞争策略............................................................................65 5.3.1强化竞争优势 .................................................................................65 5.3.2竞争策略 .........................................................................................66 5.4本章小结................................................................................................69 第六章营销计划.................................................................................................70 6.1市场细分与定位....................................................................................70 6.1.1潜在客户市场概况 .........................................................................70 6.1.2目标市场细分 .................................................................................73 6.1.3目标市场选择 .................................................................................76东华大学工商管理硕士学位报告 IX 6.1.4目标市场定位 .................................................................................76 6.2EHRS 产品的生命周期 ..........................................................................77 6.3营销策略 4Ps .........................................................................................78 6.3.1产品 .................................................................................................78 6.3.2价格 .................................................................................................81 6.3.3渠道 .................................................................................................83 6.3.4营销推广策略和计划 .....................................................................84 6.4营销活动考核与绩效管理 ....................................................................86 6.4.1营销活动考核的设定 .....................................................................86 6.4.2绩效管理与奖励 .............................................................................87 6.5本章小结................................................................................................88 第七章运营计划.................................................................................................89 7.1EHRS 事业部的构成 ..............................................................................89 7.2生产运营................................................................................................90 7.2.1生产运营时间计划 .........................................................................90 7.2.2生产线投资及产能规划 .................................................................91 7.3项目运行业务里程碑............................................................................94 7.3.1研发期（1－2 年） ........................................................................94 7.3.2生产期（3－5 年） ........................................................................94 7.3.3中长期发展（5－10 年） ..............................................................94 7.4基于 BSC 的团队绩效考核评定...........................................................95 7.4.1绩效考核的方法、流程和指标 .....................................................95 7.4.2团队的教育培训和激励措施 .........................................................96 7.5本章小结................................................................................................97 第八章财务分析.................................................................................................98 8.1项目资金需求量、用途及使用计划 ....................................................98 8.1.1事业部投资预算 .............................................................................98 8.1.2生产费用预算 ...............................................................................100 8.1.3EHRS 项目 5 年资金总需求 .........................................................102 8.2财务状况五年预测..............................................................................102 8.2.1损益预估表 ...................................................................................102 8.2.2现金流预测 ...................................................................................103 8.2.3资产负债表 ...................................................................................105 8.3盈亏平衡分析......................................................................................106 8.4盈利能力分析......................................................................................106 8.5投资与收益分析..................................................................................108东华大学工商管理硕士学位报告 X 8.6净现值分析..........................................................................................109 8.7项目风险评估......................................................................................111 8.7.1风险因素指标 ...............................................................................112 8.7.2风险因素权重 ...............................................................................113 8.7.3风险因素评价方法 .......................................................................113 8.7.4高风险因素及应对措施 ...............................................................114 8.8本章小结..............................................................................................116 第九章执行摘要...............................................................................................117 9.1EHRS 中国区事业部项目简介 ............................................................117 9.2EHRS 中国区事业部项目的市场规模和市场需求 ............................118 9.3EHRS 中国区事业部项目的核心竞争优势 ........................................118 结论.....................................................................................................................120