甲醇是重要的基础有机化工原料，消费量仅次于乙烯、丙烯和苯，居第四 位，甲醇也是汽油燃料的良好替代品，并已得到国家政策的支持。从长远看， 甲醇将成为石油的主要持续资源之一，随着国内作为燃料推广使用，甲醇使用 量将大幅度增加。 本文通过市场分析、技术方案论证，厂址及技术经济分析，对沁州煤焦集 团甲醇项目可行是否得出初步结论，主要有以下几项，第一、本项目利用丰富 廉价的焦炉气及当地劣质烟煤制取甲醇，是煤炭综合利用，提高附加值的有效、 经济的途径，符合国家的产业政策、能源和环境保护政策；第二、产品甲醇有 明显的价格和成本优势，在市场中具有较强的竞争力；第三、本项目从根本上 解决了焦炉煤气出路的问题，同时达到了变废为宝的目的；第四、本项目采用 了先进可靠的技术和设备，设备基本由国内解决。 关键词，甲醇，市场，经济可行性，技术可行性，风险Abstract Methanol is an important basic organic chemical raw material. its consumption is in fourth place after ethylene, propylene and benzene, Methanol is also a good alternative to gasoline fuel, and it has been the support of national policies .In the long run, methanol will be the oil resources of the major ongoing ，Along with promoting the use of domestic as fuel, methanol use will increase significantly. Through market analysis, technology demonstration program, site and technical economic analysis, we have reached a preliminary conclusion on the feasibility of methanol project .There are the following: Firstly, the project uses the abundant coke oven gas to make Methanol, that is a method of utilizing coal, improving the added value, and meeting the country's industrial policy, energy and environmental protection policies; Secondly, methanol has obviously cost advantage, so it has strong competitiveness in the market. Thirdly, the project is a fundamental way to solve the problem of coke oven gas， meanwhile it has turned waste into wealth; Fourthly, the project uses advanced and reliable technology and equipment, which are supported by China. Key words: Methanol, Market, Economic feasibility, Technical feasibility, Risk目 录 摘要 ABSTRACT 第 1 章 绪论..................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景及意义................................................................................................1 1.1.1 选题背景 .......................................................................................................1 1.1.2 选题意义 .......................................................................................................2 1.2 研究的主要内容和方法 .....................................................................................3 1.2.1 研究的主要内容 ...........................................................................................3 1.2.2 研究的主要方法 ...........................................................................................3 1.2.3 技术路线 .......................................................................................................3 第 2章 理论及相关研究..............................................................................................5 2.1 基础理论 ..............................................................................................................5 2.1.1 经济学理论 ...................................................................................................5 2.1.2 项目管理和可行性研究理论 .......................................................................6 2.1.3 投资及融资理论 ...........................................................................................7 2.2 国内外研究现状 .................................................................................................8 2.2.1 国内研究现状 ...............................................................................................8 2.2.2 国外研究现状 ...............................................................................................9 第 3 章 企业及项目简介............................................................................................12 3.1 企业简介 ...........................................................................................................12 3.2 项目简介 ...........................................................................................................13 第 4章 项目的技术可行性分析................................................................................14 4.1 项目建设的外部因素分析 ................................................................................14 4.1.1 建厂条件和厂址方案 .................................................................................14 4.1.2 环境保护......................................................................................................15 4.2 项目建设的内部因素分析 ...............................................................................15 4.2.1 工艺技术方案..............................................................................................16 4.2.2 主要设备的选择 .........................................................................................17 4.2.3 原材料及燃料的供应 .................................................................................18第 5章 国内外甲醇供需分析....................................................................................19 5. 1 国内外甲醇供应分析 .......................................................................................19 5.1.1 国外甲醇供应分析......................................................................................19 5.1.2 国内甲醇供应分析 .....................................................................................20 5.2 国内外甲醇需求分析 ........................................................................................22 5.2.1 国外甲醇需求分析 .....................................................................................22 5.2.2 国内甲醇需求分析 .....................................................................................24 5.3 国内外甲醇近期需求预测分析 .......................................................................25 第 6章 甲醇项目经济可行性分析............................................................................27 6.1 甲醇项目投资概述 ...........................................................................................27 6.2 项目财务指标分析 ...........................................................................................28 6.3 项目的不确定性分析 ........................................................................................29 6.3.1 项目盈亏平衡分析......................................................................................30 6.3.2 项目敏感性分析 .........................................................................................30 第 7章 项目风险管理................................................................................................32 7.1 项目风险识别与评估 .......................................................................................32 7.2 项目风险控制 ...................................................................................................32 7.2.1 在防火防爆方面采取的主要措施有..........................................................33 7.2.2 其它安全措施 .............................................................................................33 第 8 章 结论................................................................................................................35 致谢.........................................................................................................................36