-I- 摘要 汽车零部件产业是整个汽车产业链的基础，它涉及大规模制造，工艺复杂， 技术难度大，生产经验和技术开发能力是获得市场的关键。国内汽车零部件企业 只有通过并购才能实现技术快速突破和规模跨越式发展，并进入中高端市场。海 外并购项目的实施过程复杂、专业性强。本文以国内汽车零部件制造企业H公司 的海外并购为切入点，对海外并购实施过程中的项目价值评估这一重要环节进行 分析研究。 论文对并购和估值的相关文献和方法理论进行系统梳理，介绍H公司并购项 目的实施过程，回顾价值评估使用的方法和计算过程，并总结估值的问题。论文 针对现金流折现法、相对估值法和资产法之间的相互验证关系和估值与成交价之 间的差异问题展开研究，对比不同评估方法优缺点，并计算对估值结果的影响， 分析形成估值差异的原因，而且针对不同问题提出修正方案。具体来讲，为了更 准确地计算企业价值，需要充分考虑: 第一，被并购公司所处国家的宏观经济环 境；第二， 被并购公司的特点，并据此修正估值中的相关系数，以取得较准确 的估值结果。 论文的目的是在案例研究的基础上总结经验，改进汽车零部件企业海外并购 项目的实施效果，使资本市场正确认识汽车零部件公司的价值，从而提高投资者 和被投资者成功达成交易的几率。汽车零部件企业海外并购项目中风险管控等关 键因素的经验分享，有利于汽车零部件行业的整合、再融资，为国内公司进行海 外扩张，在资本市场上争取主动权起到重要作用，为未来并购项目的实施起到借 鉴作用。 关键词：汽车零部件行业；境外；并购；估值Abstract -III- Abstract Auto parts industry is the foundation of the whole auto industry chain, which involves large-scale manufacturing, complicated process and high technology. Production experience and technology development ability are the key to obtain the market.Only through merger and acquisition can domestic auto parts enterprises achieve rapid technological breakthrough and scale leapfrog development, and enter the middle and high-end market. The implementation process of overseas M&A projects is complexand professional. Based onthe overseas M&Acases ofH company, a domestic auto parts manufacturer, this paper analyzes and studies the important link of project value assessment in the process of overseas M&A. This paper systematically sorts out relevant literature and theories of M&A and valuation to lay a foundation for case analysis. Furthermore, it introduces the implementation process of H company's M&A project, reviews the methods and calculation process used in value assessment, and summarizes the problems in valuation.This paper studies the mutual verification relationship between cash flow discount method, relative valuation method and asset method, summarise and analyse the problems of each valuation method, compares the advantages and disadvantages of different evaluation methods, calculates the impact on the valuation results, and puts forward correction plans for this case in order to come out with a more reasonable valuation. Specifically, in order to calculate enterprise value more accurately, full consideration should be given to 1) the macroeconomic environment and risks of the countrywheretheacquired companyis locatedand 2)thecharacteristicsoftheacquired company, the relevant coefficient in the valuation should be modified accordingly to obtain more accurate valuation results. This study can provide a more profound understanding of the development trend and industrial environment of the auto parts industry, so as to find the most suitable valuation method for the auto parts industry. In the practical operation, it is found that different valuation methods play different roles and are indispensable. Auto parts manufacturing belongs to traditional manufacturing industry and has a mature production and sales model. Especially for companies with stable historical operating data, cash flow discount method is a reliable method of value assessment. In order to calculate enterprise value more accurately, we also need to take full account of the company's risks and advantages, and adopt a variety of valuation methods to control北京工业大学工商管理硕士专业学位论文 -IV- the valuation results within a reasonable range, and use different methods to verify and supplement each other. The significance of accurate valuation in M&A is to help acquirers to define the core value of the target company and gain the initiative in transaction negotiation. Reasonable valuation plays a key role in facilitating the aquisition, achieving the goals of both parties, so that to achieve a win-win situation in an acquisition case. The purpose of this paper is to summarize experience on the basis of case study, and improve the implementation effect of overseas M&A projects of auto parts enterprises, make the capital market correctly understand the value of Auto parts companies, and thus improve the probability of successful transaction between investors and investors. The overseas acquisition experience sharing of risk control and other key factors in overseas M&A projects of Auto parts enterprises is conducive to the integration and refinancing of Auto parts industry, the overseas expansion of domestic companies, and the initiative in the capital market. Finally, the paper summarizes the key successful factors in the overseas M&A projects of auto parts enterprises, which can serve as a reference for the implementation of future M&A projects. Keywords: Auto parts industry; Overseas; Mergers and acquisitions;The valuation目 录 -V- 目录 摘要.......................................................................................................................I Abstract ..................................................................................................................III 目录..........................................................................................................................V 第 1 章 绪论........................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景.................................................................................................... 1 1.2 相关研究评述............................................................................................ 5 1.2.1 国外文献综述................................................................................... 5 1.2.2 国内文献综述................................................................................... 6 1.3 研究方向与目标 ........................................................................................ 6 1.4 研究方法和技术路线................................................................................. 7 1.4.1 研究方法.......................................................................................... 7 1.4.2 技术路线.......................................................................................... 8 第 2 章 并购估值的基本理论...............................................................................11 2.1 并购的基本理论 ...................................................................................... 11 2.1.1 企业并购定义.................................................................................11 2.1.2 企业并购的目的.............................................................................11 2.1.3 企业并购的交易结构.....................................................................12 2.1.4 企业并购的形式.............................................................................12 2.2 估值的基本理论 ...................................................................................... 13 2.2.1 企业价值定义..................................................................................13 2.2.2 估值理论概述..................................................................................13 2.3 本章小结.................................................................................................. 14 第 3 章 H 公司并购情况介绍...............................................................................15 3.1 交易结构状况........................................................................................... 15 3.1.1 H 公司介绍......................................................................................15 3.1.2 被并购公司介绍..............................................................................16 3.2 交易结构设计.......................................................................................... 17 3.3 H 公司并购 T 公司的过程..................................................................... 18 3.4 本章小结................................................................................................ 21 第 4 章 T 公司价值的初步测定 ...........................................................................23 4.1 现金流折现法估值.................................................................................... 23北京工业大学工商管理硕士专业学位论文 -VI- 4.1.1 了解财务尽调情况.........................................................................23 4.1.2 自由现金流模型的建立.................................................................25 4.1.3 折现率和终值的确定.....................................................................32 4.1.4 现金流折现法的计算结果 .............................................................34 4.2 相对估值法估值 ...................................................................................... 35 4.2.1 可比公司的选择.............................................................................35 4.2.2 关键财务指标的选择和对比...........................................................36 4.2.3 相对估值法的计算结果...............................................................37 4.3 资产法估值.............................................................................................. 37 4.3.1 T 公司资产负债表分析及调整.......................................................38 4.3.2 资产法的估值结果.......................................................................39 4.4 本章小结.................................................................................................. 39 第 5 章 H 公司并购 T 公司估值修正...................................................................41 5.1 并购估值存在的问题............................................................................... 41 5.1.1 现金流折现法的问题.....................................................................41 5.1.2 可比公司法的问题.........................................................................42 5.1.3 资产法的问题.................................................................................42 5.2 H 公司并购 T 公司估值修正方案............................................................ 43 5.2.1 未来现金流模型参数修正方案......................................................43 5.2.2 可比公司和财务指标的修正方案..................................................47 5.3 T 公司最终估值区间确定......................................................................... 47 5.4 本章小结.................................................................................................. 48 第 6 章 H 公司并购 T 公司估值实施效果和经验................................................51 6.1 项目实施的效果 ...................................................................................... 51 6.2 并购实施的经验 ...................................................................................... 52 6.3 本章小结.................................................................................................. 54 结 论.....................................................................................................................55