热电联产，或称热电联合生产，适用于那些需要大量的电力和热量的工业用 户，用以减少能源和环境的影响。热电联产项目形成了电力工业的一个重要分支， 在近年的项目评价过程中，热电联产项目经济评价也越来越多地体现出有别于一 般发电项目的特点。投资项目可行性研究是指在项目投资决策阶段，对拟建项目 所进行的全面的技术经济分析论证，它是投资项目前期工作的主要内容与方法， 是投资项目周期中统揽全局的重要环节。本文针对 H 发电公司拟投资建设的天 然气热电联产项目进行了研究，旨在确定该投资项目是够具有投资价值，帮助投 资者进行决策。 本文采用理论与案例相结合的方法，以调查法、文献综述法、统计分析法， 从项目基本情况概述着手，结合当地天然气供应情况及所在地热负荷分析，对该 项目的市场可行性进行分析；然后根据工程主机技术条件、燃料品质及主厂房布 置情况，对项目技术可行性进行了深入分析；最后综合分析了投资估算和财务评 价指标，分析项目的财务可行性。 本文结论如下，（1）市场研究前景利好。园区内用热负荷集中，锅炉多， 锅炉总蒸发量大，已经具备集中供热的条件，迫切需要建设相应的集中供热热源 点，综合解决区内能耗高、污染大的问题，以便改善区域生态环境和投资环境。 （2）工程技术可行。该项目选择热电联产机组能够适应本工程燃料品质，外围 环境改变对本厂区影响较小。（3）投资估算合理。该项目工程静态投资 288359 万元，工程动态投资 298381 万元，铺底生产流动资金 7619 万元，项目计划总资 金 306052 万元，估算投资符合工程实际。（4）财务评价效果好。本项目在经营 期内，各项经济指标符合国家和本行业的有关规定。生产能力利用率达到 77.56％ 时，项目收入等于总成本费用，达到盈亏平衡，项目盈亏平衡点适中，表明项目 有一定抗风险能力。 本文虽然仅对 H 发电公司拟筹建的单个项目进行分析，但它对同行业电力 投资具有一定的启示，也为该类项目工程可行性研究工作提供了参考。 关键词，热电联产，非财务可行性研究，财务可行性研究，投资估算，财务评价II Abstract Cogeneration, or combined heat and power production, is suitable for industrial users who require large electricity as well as heat, to reduce energy and environmental impact.Cogeneration project formed an important branch of power industry, in the process of project evaluation in recent years, cogeneration project economic evaluation are increasingly reflect characteristics different from that of the general power projects.Investment project feasibility study refers to the project investment decision-making stage, the proposed project of the comprehensive technical and economic analysis, it is the main content and method of project investment preparation, is an important part of the investment project cycle is suggested in the global.In this paper, the research on gas combined heat and power production project proposed by H power company is carried out to determine that the investment project is sufficiently valuable to help investors make decisions. This article adopts the method of combining theory and case, with the survey method, literature review method, statistical analysis method, from the project summary of basic situation, combined with local natural gas supply and heat load analysis, analyze the feasibility of the project market; Then the technical feasibility of the project was analyzed in depth according to the technical conditions, fuel quality and the layout of the main plant. Finally, Comprehensive analysis of investment estimation and financial evaluation indicators, analyze the financial viability of the project. The conclusions are as follows:(1)Positive market research prospects. With hot concentrated load in the park and the boiler, the boiler total evaporation is big, has the condition of central heating, urgent need to build the corresponding central heating heat source point, comprehensive solution to the problem of large area high energy consumption, pollution, in order to improve the regional ecological environment and investment environment.(2) Engineering technology is feasible. The project chooses the cogeneration unit to adapt to the fuel quality of this project, and the external environment change has little effect on the factory.(3) Reasonable investment estimation. The project has a static investment of 2883.59 million yuan, the project dynamic investment is 2983.81 million yuan, and the production flow capital of the project is 76.19 million yuan, and the total project plan is 3060.52 million yuan, andIII the estimated investment is in line with the actual project.(4) Good financial evaluation. During the operation period, the economic indicators are in line with the relevant regulations of the state and the industry. When the production capacity utilization reaches 77.56%, the project income is equal to the total cost, which is equal to the profit and loss balance. The break-even point of the project is moderate, indicating that the project has certain anti-risk ability. Although the paper studied the single project case of the H power company, but it has certain enlightenment to the same industry power investment, and also provides reference for the feasibility study of this kind of project. Key words:Cogeneration, Non-financial feasibility study, Financial feasibility study , Investment estimation, Finance estimationV 目 录 第 1 章 引言............................................. 1 1.1 研究背景 ........................................................................................................ 1 1.2 研究目的和意义 ............................................................................................ 1 1.3 研究方法 ........................................................................................................ 2 1.4 研究框架 ........................................................................................................ 2 第 2 章 项目可行性研究理论概述........................... 3 2.1 非财务可行性研究内容 ................................................................................ 3 2.1.1 项目基本情况概述................................................................................................. 3 2.1.2 市场可行性分析..................................................................................................... 3 2.1.3 技术可行性分析..................................................................................................... 4 2.2 财务可行性研究内容 .................................................................................... 4 2.2.1 投资估算分析......................................................................................................... 5 2.2.2 财务评价分析......................................................................................................... 6 第 3 章 拟投资项目基本情况概述.......................... 15 3.1 项目背景、规模及选址 .............................................................................. 15 3.1.1 项目背景............................................................................................................... 15 3.1.2 项目规模............................................................................................................... 16 3.1.3 项目选址............................................................................................................... 16 3.2 项目设计方案 .............................................................................................. 16 3.2.1 燃料....................................................................................................................... 16 3.2.2 设备....................................................................................................................... 17 3.2.3 环境保护和水土保持........................................................................................... 18 第 4 章 拟投资项目非财务可行性研究...................... 21 4.1 市场可行性研究 .......................................................................................... 21 4.1.1 项目所在地燃料供应情况分析........................................................................... 21 4.1.2 项目所在地热负荷市场分析............................................................................... 22 4.1.3 本节小结............................................................................................................... 22 4.2 技术可行性研究 .......................................................................................... 22 4.2.1 主机技术条件....................................................................................................... 23 4.2.2 燃料耗量............................................................................................................... 23 4.2.3 主厂房布置........................................................................................................... 23 4.2.4 项目实施的建设进度及工期............................................................................... 24 4.2.5 本节小结............................................................................................................... 25 第 5 章 拟投资项目财务可行性研究........................ 26 5.1 投资估算 ...................................................................................................... 26 5.1.1 总投资估算........................................................................................................... 26 5.1.2 投资分析............................................................................................................... 26 5.2 财务评价分析 .............................................................................................. 27VI 5.2.1 财务评价参数....................................................................................................... 28 5.2.2 财务评价指标....................................................................................................... 29 5.2.3 不确定性分析....................................................................................................... 30 5.3 本章小结......................................................................................................31 第 6 章 研究结论......................................... 32 6.1 拟投资项目研究结论 .................................................................................. 32 6.2 项目可行性研究建议 .................................................................................. 32 6.2.1 国内研究现状....................................................................................................... 32 6.2.2 对项目可行性研究工作的建议........................................................................... 33