农民专业合作社作为一种新兴的经济组织形式，近年来在全国各地都快速发展。 农民通过加入农民专业合作社，可以获得远超松散经营模式下的经济收入；对于农村 来说，农民专业合作社可以将分散的生产力集中起来，最大程度的发挥当地的生产优 势，产生规模经济效应。但是目前大部分农民专业合作社所进行的农产品生产销售还 局限于初级农产品，普遍价格偏低，创造的经济效益也较低，在一定程度上限制了农 民专业合作社的进一步发展。而经过深加工后的农产品，具有方便携带，种类多样， 易于保存等诸多优势，同时其蕴含的经济附加值也远高于初级农产品。因此，越来越 多的农民专业合作社开始寻求在农产品深加工项目上寻求突破。 本文研究对象为郫县 JN 农民专业合作社，该合作社成立于 2006 年，以韭黄产品 的生产销售为主要业务。成立 12 年来，JN 农民专业合作社的发展势头良好，已经成为 西南地区最大的韭黄基地。所生产的产品质量获得了多项国家级认证，不仅在国内市 场占据重要位置，更是远销海外，成为国际化的产品。为了能进一步充分利用资源， 拓宽市场，为入社村民创造更多的收入，合作社理事会决定建立韭黄深加工基地，将 初级农产品的韭黄深加工为以韭黄酱为主的不同形式的产品。本文的研究目的就是通 过现有的财务分析工具，就该项目在财务上的可行性进行分析评价。文章介绍了项目 的背景情况及国内外的研究现状，并对相关概念及理论进行阐述，通过计算回收期、 净现值、报酬率等各种财务指标，对项目的预期盈利情况及财务风险情况进行了分析， 最后对于项目在财务上是否可行做出评价。 本文的研究意义主要在于通过对农业合作社这种小型项目进行研究，进而发现其 所具有的特殊性，为类似项目的可行性研究提供借鉴。 关键词，农业合作社；农产品深加工；项目可行性；财务评价 报告类型，应用研究II Abstract As a new form of economic organization, farmer professional cooperatives have been developing rapidly all over the country in recent years. For farmers, by joining the specialized farmer cooperatives, they can obtain economic income far from the loose business model. For rural areas, specialized farmer cooperatives can concentrate the scattered productive forces, maximize local production advantages and produce economies of scale. But at present most of the farmers' professional co-operatives have a problem, is conducted by the agricultural products production and sales are still confined to the primary agricultural products, the generally low price, to create the economic benefit is low, to a certain extent, restrict the further development of farmers' professional co-operatives. After the deep processing of agricultural products, it is convenient to carry, diversified, easy to save and so on, and its economic added value is much higher than that of primary agricultural products. As a result, more and more farmers' professional cooperatives are seeking to make breakthroughs in the deep processing of agricultural products. As the research object of this paper, the PI county JN farmer professional cooperatives was established in 2006, with the production and sales of leek products as the main business. Over the past 12 years, the development of the specialized farmer cooperatives has been developing well and has become the largest base of leek in southwest China. The product quality of the production has won many national certification, not only in the domestic market occupies an important position, but also sells overseas, becomes the international product. In order to make full use of resources, further broaden the market, create more revenue for the villagers into the club, the council decided to establish a cooperative chives, deep processing base, the primary chives, deep processing of agricultural products such as leek Mayo, chives, face different kinds of products. The purpose of this paper is to analyze and evaluate the financial feasibility of the project through existing financial analysis tools. This paper introduces the project background and the research status at home and abroad, and the related concepts and theories, through the calculation of payback period, net present value, return on various financial indicators, such as expectations of projectIII profitability and financial risk are analyzed, and the final project financially feasible conclusions. Key words: the Agricultural cooperative; the Deep processing of agricultural products; the Feasibility analysis; the Financial evaluationI 目 录 原创性声明.........................................................................................................................I 学位报告版权使用授权书....................................................................................................I 摘要................................................................................................................................I Abstract.............................................................................................................................. II 第 1 章 绪论......................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景与研究意义 ........................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 选题背景...............................................1 1.1.2 研究意义...............................................1 1.2 国内外研究现状................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 国外研究现状...........................................2 1.2.2 国内研究现状...........................................3 1.2.3 研究现状评述...........................................5 1.3 主要研究内容及研究方法 .................................................................................... 6 1.3.1 主要内容...............................................6 1.3.2 研究方法...............................................6 1.4 本文的创新点与不足 ........................................................................................... 7 1.4.1 创新点.................................................7 1.4.2 不足...................................................7 1.5 本章小结 ............................................................................................................. 7 第 2 章 概念界定及理论综述............................................................................................. 8 2.1 概念界定 ............................................................................................................. 8 2.1.1 农业合作社.............................................8 2.1.2 农产品深加工...........................................9 2.1.3 可行性研究............................................10 2.2 理论概述 ........................................................................................................... 11 2.2.1 项目前评价理论........................................11 2.2.2 财务评价理论..........................................11 2.2.3 财务评价指标..........................................12II 2.3 本章小结 ........................................................................................................... 16 第 3 章 项目背景介绍...................................................................................................... 16 3.1 项目概况 ........................................................................................................... 16 3.2 必要性分析........................................................................................................ 16 3.3 市场分析 ........................................................................................................... 17 3.4 SWOT 分析 .......................................................................................................... 18 3.4.1 优势（strengths）.....................................18 3.4.2 劣势（weaknesses） ....................................19 3.4.3 机会（opportunities）.................................19 3.4.4 威胁（threats）.......................................19 3.4.5 SWOT 分析小结 .........................................20 3.5 项目财务预测..................................................................................................... 20 3.5.1 基本假设..............................................20 3.5.2 项目收入预测..........................................21 3.5.3 费用成本预测..........................................21 3.5.4 项目投资预测..........................................22 3.6 本章小结 ........................................................................................................... 24 第 4 章 盈利能力与不确定性分析.................................................................................... 25 4.1 静态指标 ........................................................................................................... 25 4.1.1 静态回收期............................................25 4.1.2 投资收益率（ROI）.....................................26 4.1.3 静态指标小结 ..........................................26 4.2 动态指标 ........................................................................................................... 27 4.2.1 动态回收期............................................27 4.2.2 项目净现值（NPV）.....................................28 4.2.3 内涵收益率（IRR）.....................................28 4.2.4 动态指标小结..........................................28 4.3 不确定性分析..................................................................................................... 28 4.3.1 敏感性分析............................................28 4.3.2 盈亏平衡分析..........................................29 4.4 本章小结 ........................................................................................................... 30III 第 5 章 结论与展望.......................................................................................................... 32