我国对房地产行业宏观调控政策的日益趋紧，房地产行业将面临着新一轮的 洗牌。要在在激烈的行业竞争中立于不败之地，房地产行业必须尽最大可能的规 避项目的投资风险，通过准确的市场定位等相应策略手段把项目的投资成本降到 最低，故而项目在建设前期的投资可行性就显的尤为重要。由于房地产高风险、 高投入、高收益的特点，为提高收益规避风险，可行性分析己经成为房地产开发 企业在项目前期的必备工作，较为准确的可行性研究是房地产开发企业决策的基 础，是项目建设单位决策性的文件。因此，房地产项目成败的先决条件是做好前 期全面、完善的可行性论证工作。加强和规范房地产项目可行性论证，采用科学 合理的投资决策方法，对投资隐患防之于未然，具有重要的理论和现实意义。 报告通过对可行性分析理论及其技术方法的梳理，将可行性分析应用到日照 市水晶城住宅项目建设的可行性研究报告中，按照可行性分析的步骤，分别从投 资定位、投资的环境因素、投资的经济可行性等三方面入手，具体分析日照市水 晶城住宅项目是否具备可行性。 本文采用实证研究的方法，综合运用可行性研究的理论，对日照市水晶城项 目房地产开发进行了较为细致的研究。报告除前言外分为六章， 第一章，通过对可行性分析理论及其技术方法的梳理，对可行性分析的概念、 作用、内容、方法进行了论述，为将可行性分析应用到日照市水晶城住宅楼项目 奠定了理论基础。 第二章，从项目概况、项目定位、项目建设内容等角度入手阐述日照水晶城 住宅楼项目的具体情况，为进一步分析奠定实证基础。 第三章，从宏观和微观两方面入手日照市水晶城住宅项目的外部环境进行分 析，分析得出该区交通便捷、环境优良、外部协作条件成熟，有助于该项目的开 发实施。 第四章，通过对日照市水晶城住宅楼项目经济可行性进行分析得出，该项目 成本比较合理，盈利能力较强，风险也在可接受范围之内，项目整体可行。 第五章，对日照市水晶城房地产项目建设的投资环境可行性、技术可行性、 经济可行性分析进行了总结。 第六章，结论，对该报告的研究结果进行了总结。 关键词，房地产项目；环境可行性；SWOT 分析；技术可行性；市场可行 性The Feasibility Study of Crystal City Real Estate Project Investment in Rizhao City Abstract Presently, along with the country macroeconomic regulation and control to the real estate profession becomes tighter, the real estate profession will be facing the new mixing he cards. The real estate profession urgently needs to utilize the detailed preliminary feasibility study, circumvents investment risk to the greatest degree，uses the correct market localization to depress to the lowest investment cost and is in an impregnable position in the intense profession competition. The characteristics of the real estate such as high-risk, high investment, high-yield, in order to increase revenue to avoid risks,the analysis of feasibility has become a necessary pre-work for a real estate development companies, the more accurate study of feasibility is the foundation of the project construction business decisions and is the decision-making document in real estate development unit .Therefore, the pre-condition of success or failure of real estate project is a pre-comprehensive, well-feasibility study work. To strengthen the feasibility study of the real estate project and use a scientific and rational investment and decision-making method has important theoretical and practical significance for the investment risks to take preventive measures. Papers comb out feasibility analysis theory and technical methods, feasibility analysis will be applied to the construction of residential projects of the feasibility study report of Rizhao City, accordance with the steps of feasibility analysis, respectively from an environmental policy feasibility, technical feasibility, the economic feasibility of three-pronged approach to concrete analysis of the availability of the feasibility of residential projects of Rizhao City. This thesis uses the method of the real diagnosis research, comprehensively utilizes feasibility study theory and conducts more carefully research to the Rizhao Crystal City project property development. In addition to preface things paper is divided into six chapters: Chapter I: based on the carding of feasibility analysis theory and technical methods, the concept, role, content, method of feasibility analysis has been discussed, and there is a theoretical basis that the feasibility analysis will be applied to residential buildings, Rizhao City.Chapter II: from the project profiles, project location, project construction methods and construction progress to start point of residential building projects set out the specific circumstances of Rizhao City, in order to lay the empirical basis for further analysis. Chapter III: by analyzing the Macro and micro environment for Crystal City residential projects of Rizhao City from the policy， geographic and economic environment， we come a conclusion that the area transportation is convenient， the environmental is fine， and the external collaborative conditions are ripe to help the project developed and implemented. Chapter IV: through analyzing the technical feasibility of Crystal City residential projects of Rizhao City, then we can get the project development management strategy and makes the development progress. Chapter V: By analyzing the economic feasibility of the Rizhao Crystal City residential building projects, there is conclusion that the project costs are reasonable, profitability is strong, risks are acceptable within the scope, other project as a whole is feasible. Chapter VI: the environmental feasibility, market feasibility, economic feasibility analysis of the Rizhao Crystal City real estate projects are summarized. Key words: Estate projects; Environmental feasibility; SWOT analysis; Technical feasibility; Economic feasibilityI 目 录 0 前言 ...................................................1 0.1 选题背景与意义 ................................................1 0.1.1 选题背景 .................................................................................................................. 1 0.1.2 研究目的和意义 ...................................................................................................... 1 0.2 国内外工程项目建设可行性分析研究现状 ..........................2 0.2.1 国外可行性研究历程及现状 .................................................................................. 2 0.2.2 国内可行性研究历程及现状 .................................................................................. 3 0.2.3 小结 .......................................................................................................................... 5 0.3 本文的研究目标与主要研究内容 ..................................5 0.3.1 本文的研究目标 ...................................................................................................... 5 0.3.2 本文的主要研究内容 .............................................................................................. 6 0.3.3 研究方法 .................................................................................................................. 6 0.3.4 本文的研究框架 ...................................................................................................... 7 0.4 本文的创新点与不足............................................8 0.4.1 本文的创新点 .......................................................................................................... 8 0.4.2 不足之处 .................................................................................................................. 9 1 房地产项目投资可行性分析的研究.........................10 1.1 房地产建设项目投资可行性分析的理论基础 .......................10 1.1.1 房地产建设项目投资可行性分析的概述 ............................................................ 10 1.1.2 可行性分析阶段的划分 ........................................................................................ 10 1.1.3 房地产建设项目投资可行性分析的作用 ............................................................ 11 1.2 房地产建设项目投资可行性分析的主要内容和工作程序 .............11 1.2.1 房地产建设项目投资可行性分析的主要内容 .................................................... 11 1.2.2 可行性分析的工作程序 ........................................................................................ 13 1.2.3 对项目可行性分析报告的评价 ............................................................................ 14 1.3 工程项目可行性分析的方法.....................................15 1.3.1 项目经济效益分析方法 ....................................................................................... 15 1.3.2 项目建设风险分析方法 ....................................................................................... 15II 1.4 小结 .........................................................15 2 日照水晶城房地产项目概述 ..............................17 2.1 水晶城房地产项目开发企业简介 .................................17 2.2 水晶城住宅房地产项目概况.....................................17 2.2.1 项目简介 ................................................................................................................ 17 2.2.2 项目可行性研究报告的编制依据 ........................................................................ 19 2.2.3 项目建设的必要性 ................................................................................................ 20 2.3 项目开发投资的市场定位 .......................................21 2.3.1 产品定位 ................................................................................................................ 21 2.3.2 价格定位 ................................................................................................................ 21 2.4 项目建设投资内容及资金筹集 ...................................21 2.4.1 项目建设投资的规模及内容 ................................................................................ 21 2.4.2 投资资金的筹集方式 ............................................................................................ 22 3 日照水晶城房地产项目的投资环境分析.....................23 3.1 宏观投资环境分析 .............................................23 3.1.1 全国房地产市场的投资环境分析 ........................................................................ 23 3.1.2 山东省房地产市场的投资环境分析 .................................................................... 24 3.2 项目所在区域房地产市场的投资环境分析 .........................26 3.2.1 日照发展概况 ........................................................................................................ 26 3.2.2 日照宏观经济状况 ................................................................................................ 27 3.2.3 日照房地产行业投资发展状况 ............................................................................ 29 3.3 投资项目的 SWOT 分析 ..........................................31 3.3.1 优势（Strength） .................................................................................................. 32 3.3.2 劣势（Weakness）................................................................................................ 33 3.3.3 机会（Opportunity） ............................................................................................ 33 3.3.4 威胁（Threat） ..................................................................................................... 33 3.4 项目投资环境分析的研究结论 ...................................33 4 日照水晶城房地产项目建设投资的经济可行性分析...........35III 4.1 项目投资成本分析 .............................................35 4.1.1 投资成本计算的依据和方法 ................................................................................ 35 4.1.2 投资成本分析 ........................................................................................................ 35 4.2 项目投资效益分析 .............................................36 4.2.1 一般房地产项目财务效益评价常用方法综述 .................................................... 36 4.2.2 项目的投资效益可行性分析 ................................................................................ 37 4.3 项目投资的不确定性分析 .......................................39 4.3.1 项目投资的盈亏平衡分析 .................................................................................... 39 4.3.2 项目投资的敏感性分析 ........................................................................................ 41 4.3.3 项目投资的概率分析 ............................................................................................ 41 4.4 本章小结.....................................................42 5 日照水晶城房地产项目投资风险及对策建议.................43 5.1 日照水晶城房地产项目投资风险与控制 ...........................43 5.2 日照水晶城房地产项目投资风险的对策建议.......................45 6 结论 ..................................................47