近年来，房地产一直受到政府的调控及民众的关注，预计未来国家对房地产调控力 度将进一步推进，对房地产开发投资规模、土地供应、金融信贷、住房供给结构、税收 等不断出新政，房地产企业发展的压力依然长时间存在。房地产市场在经历土地运作低 成本时期，资金低成本运作时代，政策宽松时代后，房地产企业黄金时期已悄然离去， 利润越来越低已成了趋势，房地产企业将进入薄利时代。然而薄利并不代表无利可图。 有研究表明，2012 年物价将呈现前低后高的特征，房地产行业也许会出现跟风现象。瑞 雁广场商业计划书正是在这样的大环境下进行的。 瑞雁广场现在仅有三层的商业裙楼，对现有的土地并没有充分利用和规划，造成资 源的极大浪费。制定本商业计划书正是为了对土地资源的充分利用，对瑞雁广场的开发 进行科学预测、管理、经营。计划书试图浅析房地产的发展趋势，预测房地产行业仍是 目前值得投资的行业。利用 PEST 模型、波特五力竞争模型分析企业外部环境与 SWOT 分析内部环境，确定开发定位，制定营销策略，通过估测项目的成本和现金流，计算贴 现值回收期、净现值和内部收益率等，同时以财务敏感性分析评估财务风险，从而得出 瑞雁广场的开发会获得可观回报；最后，本文对项目的营运过程中有可能出现的其他风 险进行了评估并设定对策。最终分析表明，本项目是值得开发的。本计划书在一定程度 上可以为开发者、投资者提供指引、树立信心。 关键词，房地产；瑞雁广场；开发II Abstract In recent years, real estate has been suppressed and the people's government concerned countries, is expected to blow to the real estate efforts will be further into the future, the scale of investment in real estate development, the supply of land, financial credit, housing supply structure, such as tax continuously out of the new deal, there are real estate development enterprises pressure still long time. The real estate market after the land of low cost operation period, low cost of funds operation times, easing era, real estate enterprises golden era has quietly away, lower profits has become a trend, the real estate enterprises will enter the small profits era. However, small profits but do not represent the unprofitable. Research has shown that, in 2012 prices will present low before high, the real estate industry will appear to follow the trend of the phenomenon. Rui Yan Square business plan is carried out in such a big environment. Rui Yan Square is now only three business foundation, the existing land did not make full use of and planning, resulting in a tremendous waste of resources. To develop this business plan is to make full use of land resources, the development of Rui Yan Square scientific prediction, management, operation. Plan to development trend of real estate, the real estate industry is still predicting worth the investment industry. Analysis of the enterprise external environment and internal environment of SWOT analysis using the PEST model, Potter's five competitive forces model, determine the development positioning, marketing strategy, through the estimation of project cost and cash flow discount value, calculating payback period, net present value and the internal rate of return, and at the same time, financial sensitivity analysis to assess the financial risk, the Rui Yan Square development will pay handsomely; finally, may have the operation process of project in other risk is evaluated and set the countermeasures. The final analysis shows that, this project is worth exploiting. This plan in some degree for developers, investors provide guidelines, establish confidence. Key words，real estate；Rui Yan Square；the development ofIII 目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. II 图表清单..................................................................................................................................VI 第一章 绪 论..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义 ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 研究目的、方法和内容 ................................................................................................. 1 1.3 文献综述 ......................................................................................................................... 2 第二章 项目概况......................................................................................................................5 2.1 项目综述及主要经济技术指标 ..................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 项目综述.................................................................................................................. 5 2.1.2 主要经济技术指标.................................................................................................. 5 2.2 项目建设的开发计划 ..................................................................................................... 6 2.2.1 主要工序.................................................................................................................. 6 2.2.2 工序的安排.............................................................................................................. 6 2.3 目标利润 ......................................................................................................................... 7 2.4 本章小结 ......................................................................................................................... 7 第三章 环境分析......................................................................................................................9 3.1 外部环境 PEST 分析 ...................................................................................................... 9 3.1.1 政治法律环境.......................................................................................................... 9 3.1.2 经济环境................................................................................................................ 11 3.1.3 社会文化环境........................................................................................................ 14 3.1.4 技术环境................................................................................................................ 15 3.2 外部环境波特五力竞争模型分析 ............................................................................... 15 3.2.1 供应商的议价能力................................................................................................ 16 3.2.2 购买者的议价能力................................................................................................ 16 3.2.3 新进入者的威胁.................................................................................................... 17IV 3.2.4 替代品的威胁........................................................................................................ 17 3.2.5 同业竞争者的竞争程度........................................................................................ 17 3.2.6 波特五力与企业战略的关系................................................................................ 18 3.3 内部环境分析 ............................................................................................................... 19 3.4 项目开发战略的 SWOT 分析 ...................................................................................... 20 3.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 21 第四章 需求分析....................................................................................................................22 4.1 主题及需求分析 ........................................................................................................... 22 4.1.1 主题定位................................................................................................................ 22 4.1.2 目标客户群选择.................................................................................................... 22 4.2 目标客户群体的需求分析 ........................................................................................... 22 4.2.1 首次置业者............................................................................................................ 22 4.2.2 二次置业者............................................................................................................ 23 4.2.3 投资型客户............................................................................................................ 23 4.3 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 24 第五章 经营策略....................................................................................................................25 5.1 产品策略 ....................................................................................................................... 25 5.1.1 建筑的设计构思.................................................................................................... 25 5.1.2 楼层的功能布局.................................................................................................... 25 5.1.3 建筑的布局规划.................................................................................................... 25 5.1.4 物业的管理............................................................................................................ 26 5.2 建设策略 ....................................................................................................................... 27 5.2.1 建设时机的选择.................................................................................................... 27 5.2.2 建设规模的分析.................................................................................................... 27 5.3 有效营销 ....................................................................................................................... 28 5.3.1 团队的组建............................................................................................................ 28 5.3.2 营销策略................................................................................................................ 29 5.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 31V 第六章 投资分析....................................................................................................................33 6.1 投资估算 ....................................................................................................................... 33 6.2 销售收入 ....................................................................................................................... 33 6.3 项目财务可行性分析 ................................................................................................... 34 6.3.1 设定的前提条件.................................................................................................... 34 6.3.2 项目产品销售现金流估算.................................................................................... 34 6.3.3 净现值（NPV）及内部收益率（IRR） ............................................................. 35 6.3.4 获利指数................................................................................................................ 35 6.3.5 盈亏平衡分析........................................................................................................ 36 6.3.6 敏感度分析............................................................................................................ 36 6.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 36 第七章 项目风险及对策........................................................................................................38 7.1 风险 ............................................................................................................................... 38 7.1.1 决策前期风险........................................................................................................ 38 7.1.2 经营管理风险........................................................................................................ 40 7.2 对策 ............................................................................................................................... 41 7.2.1 成本控制................................................................................................................ 41 7.2.2 调整开发节奏........................................................................................................ 42 7.2.3 完善人力资源管理................................................................................................ 42 7.3 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 43 结 论......................................................................................................................................45