摘要 新世纪以来，信息技术通过“信息流”对区域经济空间格局产生了重大影 响，流动空间将取代场所空间成为主导区域空间组织形式的决定性力量。当前， 信息技术正在引发整个旅游业的变革，互联网成为最全面旅游信息源及中转站， 潜在旅游者通过网络平台进行旅游信息搜索，旅游信息得以流动与传递，互联 网成为旅游目的地与客源地、旅游企业与游客、游客与游客之间旅游信息流动 的桥梁和媒介。而手机等新兴传播媒介的出现进一步缩短了信息时空距离，加 速了旅游信息流动及交换，互联网在旅游业中发挥着越来越重要的作用，影响 着旅游者的活动安排、行为决策与出游意愿，旅游信息流对客流的导引作用增 强，旅游信息流的重要性进一步提升。然而当前旅游信息流的相关研究较少， 还存在不少问题有待解决，如旅游信息流在区域间是如何运行和流动？旅游信 息流是怎么形成的，受到哪些因素影响？旅游信息流又发挥何种作用？目前， 这些问题学术界还很难回答，学者们较少对旅游信息流进行系统性研究。因此， 本研究针对旅游信息流的理论内涵、动力机制与作用效应进行系统性分析与探 讨。 本文按照“问题提出-理论探讨-实证分析-总结展望”的研究思路开展相关 研究。第一，本文遵循从理论构建到实证分析的研究范式，对区域旅游信息流 进行理论剖析与探讨，为实证分析奠定理论基础。第二，进行区域旅游信息流 的动态格局和空间网络分析，以长三角城市群为研究案例地，通过百度指数衡 量各个城市间旅游信息流动与联系，剖析旅游信息流的集聚与扩散格局，运用 社会网络方法分析旅游信息流空间网络的结构特征及演化。第三，分析区域旅 游信息流的影响因素与动力机制，构建“推-拉-阻”理论模型，运用QAP相关分 析方法和地理探测器分析方法探讨旅游信息流集聚与扩散的影响因素。第四， 探讨区域旅游信息流的影响作用及溢出效应，构建空间计量模型，分析旅游信 息流对旅游经济发展的影响及其空间溢出效应。第五，最后运用fsQCA方法分析 各个影响因素的因果组合配置，探讨因果组合配置策略，进而提出行之有效的 政策建议与组合策略。本研究主要得出以下结论： （1）区域旅游信息流具有明显的时空差异与集散特征。从时间上来看，VI 2011-2017年，长三角旅游信息流增长迅速，2017年长三角旅游信息流呈现双峰 型变化特征，其中4月和8月是峰值。从空间上来看，长三角旅游信息流的空间 分异明显，主要分布于东部地区，旅游信息流出量呈现明显的空间自相关，空 间集聚效应明显，而旅游信息流入量呈现随机分布。 （2）区域旅游信息流网络具有明显的结构特征与效应。从整体网络来看， 长三角旅游信息流呈现东部、中部网络相对密集，西南部、北部网络稀疏的空 间结构，核心子群的影响力和辐射力强。从网络节点来看，长三角节点程度中 心度明显提高，网络节点的集聚与辐射能力增强，同时节点的接近中心度快速 增加，网络通达性明显提高。 （3）旅游信息流演化主要受到推力、阻力及拉力的共同影响。从时间层面 来看，休假制度对旅游信息流集聚与扩散有着显著的影响，而气候舒适度的影 响并不明显。从空间层面来看，经济发展水平、人口因素、交通便捷度、信息 化程度、旅游吸引力、公共服务设施、距离因素与旅游信息流都存在非常密切 的关系，其中地区经济水平和信息化程度对旅游信息流空间集聚的影响力极强， 是其核心影响因素。而各个影响因子对旅游信息流空间扩散的影响强度均较低。 并且研究发现旅游信息流推力系统的影响因素作用强度最大，在旅游信息流系 统中处于核心地位，而拉力系统的影响因素作用强度最小，也即目的地空间扩 散在旅游信息流系统中处于被支配地位，体现为旅游发展过程中旅游需求与旅 游供给不均衡。 （4）旅游信息流对旅游经济发展具有明显影响及溢出效应。从短期溢出效 应来看，旅游信息流对旅游经济发展具有促进作用和正向溢出效应。旅游信息 流对旅游经济发展的直接效应为0.123，间接效应为1.001，通过了显著性检验。 这表明如果旅游信息流每提高1%，会直接促进本地区旅游经济增长0.123%；如 果当地旅游信息流每提高1%，会通过空间相互作用间接地促进邻近地区旅游经 济增长1.001%。也即旅游信息流不仅会促进当地旅游经济发展，还会推动邻近 地区旅游经济发展。从长期溢出效应来看，旅游信息流对旅游经济发展的直接 溢出效应和间接溢出效应均不显著，也即旅游信息流对旅游经济发展的影响作 用时效较短，不属于持续、长期的影响，呈现短期效果明显强于长期效果。 （5）旅游信息空间与旅游经济空间耦合受到多种因素影响。各个探测因子 均对耦合格局存在一定影响，其中旅游资源禀赋对耦合协调的影响最强，其次 地区经济水平、城镇化水平、交通便捷度、信息化程度对耦合协调的影响作用VII 较强，而人口规模和旅游服务水平的影响强度一般，产业结构对耦合协调度也 存在一定影响，但影响强度较低。 基于分析结果，本研究运用fsQCA分析方法探讨各个影响因素之间的因果组 合配置策略，从而为旅游信息流空间结构优化、经济效用发挥及其旅游信息空 间与旅游经济空间协调发展提供政策建议与组合策略。 研究贡献主要有以下方面：①本文填补了旅游信息流的研究不足，以“流” 为突破口探讨了旅游信息问题，分析了区域旅游信息流的空间网络、动力机制 与溢出效应，对旅游信息流的研究不足进行理论回应与补充，推进了旅游信息 流的相关研究。②探讨了旅游信息流的“前因与后果”，从宏观尺度印证了“旅 游信息流的导引作用”，拓展了旅游信息流的研究框架与纵深。本文结合推拉 理论，对旅游信息流集聚与扩散的影响因素进行分析，进一步探讨了旅游信息 流对旅游经济发展的影响及溢出效应，深化了旅游信息流的研究纵深。③从社 会网络和流空间视角进行旅游信息流分析，跳出了旅游信息流研究的单一视角， 将旅游信息流的网络空间与地理空间结合研究，为旅游信息流提供了绝佳的研 究视角与方向。④将地理探测器、空间计量模型与fsQCA方法结合使用，能够得 到常规多元回归分析难以捕捉的影响因素组合配置，可以识别多个解决方案， 解决了因果分析中经常存在的“等终性”问题，有助于提出有效的组合策略。 关键词：旅游信息流 社会网络 溢出效应 旅游经济联系 时空特征IX abstract Since the beginning of the new century, information technology has exerted a great influence on the spatial pattern of regional economy through information flow. Mobile space will replace place space as a decisive force in dominating the form of regional spatial organization. At present, information technology is leading to changes in the whole tourism industry. The Internet has become the most comprehensive tourism information source and transit station. Potential tourists search for tourism information through the network platform, and tourism information can flow and transfer. The Internet has become a bridge and medium for the flow of tourism information between tourism destination and source, between tourism enterprises and tourists, between tourists and tourists. The emergence of mobile phones and other emerging media has further shortened the space-time distance of information, accelerating the flow and exchange of tourism information. The Internet plays an increasingly important role in tourism, affecting tourists' activities, behavior decisions and travel intentions. The guiding role of tourism information flow on passenger flow has been enhanced, and the importance of tourism information flow has been further enhanced. However, there are few studies on tourism information flow, and there are still many issue to be addressed, such as how does tourism information flow operate and flow among regionsHow does tourism information flow come into being and what factors influence itWhat role does tourism information flow playAt present, these questions are still difficult to answer in academic circles. Few scholars conduct systematic research on tourism information flow. Therefore, this study systematically analyzed and discussed the theoretical connotation, dynamic mechanism and effect of tourism information flow. This study carries out relevant research according to the research idea of putting forward problems - theoretical discussion - empirical analysis - summarizing prospects. First, following the research paradigm from theoretical construction to empirical analysis, this paper makes theoretical analysis and discussion on regionalX tourism information flow, laying a theoretical foundation for empirical analysis. Second, the dynamic pattern and spatial network analysis of regional tourism information flow are carried out. Taking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as a case study, the flow and connection of tourism information among cities are measured by Baidu index, the agglomeration and diffusion pattern of tourism information flow is analyzed, and the structural characteristics and evolution of spatial network of tourism information flow are analyzed by social network method. Thirdly, this study analyses the influencing factors and dynamic mechanism of regional tourism information flow, constructs the push-pull-drag theoretical model, and uses QAP correlation analysis method and geographic detector analysis method to explore the influencing factors of the agglomeration and diffusion of tourism information flow. Fourth, this paper explores the impact and spillover effect of regional tourism information flow, constructs a spatial econometric model, and analyses the impact of tourism information flow on tourism economic development and its spatial spillover effect. Fifth, fsQCA method is used to analyze the causal combination allocation of each influencing factor. This paper discusses the causal combination allocation strategy, and put forwards effective policy recommendations and combination strategy. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) Regional tourism information flow has obvious spatial and temporal differences and characteristics of distribution. In terms of time, the tourism information flow in the Yangtze River Delta increased rapidly from 2011 to 2017. In 2017, the tourism information flow in the Yangtze River Delta showed a bimodal change and April and August was the peak. Spatially, the spatial differentiation of tourism information flow in the Yangtze River Delta is obvious, mainly distributed in the eastern region. The outflow of tourism information presents obvious spatial autocorrelation, spatial agglomeration effect is obvious, and the inflow of tourism information presents random distribution. (2) Regional tourism information flow network has obvious structural characteristics and effects. From the overall network point of view, the tourism information flow in the Yangtze River Delta is relatively dense in the eastern and central areas, sparse in the southwest and Northern areas, and strong in the influenceXI and radiation of the core subgroups. From the point of view of network nodes, the degree of centrality of the Yangtze River Delta node is significantly improved, the gathering and radiation ability of the network nodes is enhanced, and the proximity centrality of the nodes is rapidly increased, and the network accessibility is significantly improved. (3) The evolution of tourism information flow is mainly influenced by thrust, resistance and pull. From the perspective of time, vacation system has a significant impact on the agglomeration and diffusion of tourism information flow, but the impact of climate comfort is not obvious. From the spatial perspective, the level of economic development, population factors, transportation convenience, degree of informationization, tourism attraction, public service facilities, distance factors and tourism information flow are closely related. Among them, regional economic level and degree of informationization have a strong influence on spatial agglomeration of tourism information flow, which is the core factor. The impact intensity of each factor on spatial diffusion of tourism information flow is low. And the research finds that the influence factors of the thrust system of tourism information flow have the greatest impact intensity, which is at the core of the tourism information flow system, while the influence factors of the pull system have the least impact intensity. That is to say, the spatial diffusion of destination is dominant in the tourism information flow system, which reflects the imbalance between tourism demand and tourism supply in the process of tourism development. (4) Tourism information flow has obvious influence and spillover effect on tourism economic development. From the perspective of short-term spillover effect, tourism information flow has a positive spillover effect on the development of tourism economy. The direct and indirect effects of tourism information flow on tourism economic development are 0.123 and 1.001, which pass the significant test. This shows that if the tourism information flow increases by 1%, it will directly promote the tourism economic growth of the region by 0.123%. If the local tourism information flow increases by 1%, it will indirectly promote the tourism economic growth of the adjacent region by 1.001% through spatial interaction. That is to say, tourism information flow will not only promote the development of local tourismXII economy, but also promote the development of tourism economy in neighboring areas. From the long-term spillover effect, the direct spillover effect and indirect spillover effect of tourism information flow on tourism economic development are not significant, that is to say, the effect of tourism information flow on tourism economic development is short-term, not sustained and long-term, showing a short-term effect is significantly stronger than long-term effect. (5) The coupling of tourism information space and tourism economic space is affected by many factors. Each detection factor has certain influence on the coupling pattern, among which the tourism resource endowment has the strongest influence on the coupling coordination. Secondly, regional economic level, urbanization level, transportation convenience and informatization degree have strong influence on the coupling coordination, while the impact intensity of population size and tourism service level is general, and the industrial structure also has some influence on the coupling coordination degree, but there is no difference between them. The influence strength is low. Based on the analysis results, this study uses fsQCA analysis method to explore the causal combination allocation strategies among various factors, so as to provide policy recommendations and combination strategies for the optimization of spatial structure of tourism information flow, the exertion of economic utility and the coordinated development of tourism information space and tourism economic space. The main contributions of this study are as follows: 1. This paper fills the gaps of tourism information flow research, and explores the tourism information issue with flow as a breakthrough. Furhter, the spatial network, dynamic mechanism and spillover effect of regional tourism information flow are analyzed, and this study makes theoretical responses and supplements to the research deficiencies of tourism information flow, and promotes the related research of tourism information flow. (2) Discussing the causes and consequences of tourism information flow, confirming the guiding role of tourism information flow from the macro scale, and expanding the research framework and depth of tourism information flow. Based on push-pull theory, this paper analyses the influencing factors of agglomeration and diffusion of tourism information flow, and further explores the impact of tourism information flowXIII on tourism economic development and spillover effect, and deepens the study of tourism information flow. (3) This study analyzes the tourism information flow from the perspective of social network and flow space, and jumps out the single perspective of tourism information flow research.Moreover, this study also combines the network space and geographical space of tourism information flow, and provides an excellent research perspective and direction for tourism information flow. (4) Combining geographic detector, spatial econometric model and fsQCA method, we can get the combination configuration of influencing factors which are difficult to capture by conventional multiple regression analysis. Further, this study identifys the multiple solutions, and solves the equiterminal problem in causal analysis, helping to put forward effective combination strategies. Keywords: tourism information flow, social network, spillover effect, spatio-temporal characteristicsXV 目录 第 1 章 绪论.................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景与问题提出...................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景................................................................................................1 1.1.2 问题提出................................................................................................5 1.2 研究目标与研究意义...................................................................................7 1.2.1 研究目标................................................................................................7 1.2.2 研究意义................................................................................................8 1.3 研究内容与研究方法.................................................................................10 1.3.1 研究内容..............................................................................................10 1.3.2 研究方法..............................................................................................12 1.4 研究思路与技术路线.................................................................................13 1.4.1 研究思路..............................................................................................13 1.4.2 技术路线..............................................................................................14 第 2 章 理论基础与文献回顾...................................................................................17 2.1 概念内涵.....................................................................................................17 2.1.1 信息流..................................................................................................17 2.1.2 旅游信息..............................................................................................17 2.1.3 旅游信息流..........................................................................................19 2.1.4 旅游信息流网络..................................................................................19 2.1.5 溢出效应..............................................................................................20 2.2 理论基础.....................................................................................................20 2.2.1 信息流理论..........................................................................................20 2.2.2 推拉理论..............................................................................................21 2.2.3 空间相互作用理论..............................................................................22 2.2.4 社会网络理论......................................................................................22 2.2.5 流空间理论..........................................................................................23 2.2.6 区域空间结构理论..........................................................................23XVI 2.3 文献综述.....................................................................................................24 2.3.1 信息流的相关研究..............................................................................24 2.3.2 旅游信息的相关研究..........................................................................28 2.3.3 旅游信息流的相关研究......................................................................31 2.3.4 研究述评..............................................................................................34 2.4 本研究拟探索的方向.................................................................................36 第 3 章 旅游信息流的理论构建.............................................................................37 3.1 旅游信息流的理论内涵及衡量方式.........................................................37 3.2 旅游信息流动空间的形成背景与动因.....................................................38 3.2.1 信息技术进步与互联网发展..............................................................38 3.2.2 信息流动加快与流动空间形成..........................................................38 3.2.3 旅游者对旅游信息的依赖性增强......................................................39 3.2.4 旅游区域一体化进程加快..................................................................39 3.2.5 网络基础设施和交通基础设施改善..................................................40 3.2.6 城市群发展和区域间联系更加紧密..................................................41 3.3 旅游信息流的内涵与形态特征.................................................................41 3.4 旅游信息流的流动模式与动态演化.........................................................43 3.4.1 旅游信息流的流动模式......................................................................43 3.4.2 旅游信息流的集聚与扩散特征..........................................................45 3.5 旅游信息流的影响因素与动力机制.........................................................48 3.5.1 旅游信息流形成的推拉理论模型......................................................48 3.5.2 旅游信息流的影响因素......................................................................50 3.5.3 旅游信息流的动力机制......................................................................57 3.6 旅游信息流的作用机制.............................................................................59 3.7 本章小结.....................................................................................................60 第 4 章 旅游信息流的空间网络...............................................................................61 4.1 案例地选取与说明.....................................................................................62 4.2 研究方法.....................................................................................................63 4.2.1 社会网络分析方法..............................................................................63 4.2.2 地理空间分析方法..............................................................................64XVII 4.3 数据收集与矩阵构建.................................................................................67 4.3.1 数据来源与收集..................................................................................67 4.3.2 原始矩阵构建......................................................................................71 4.4 旅游信息流的动态格局.............................................................................71 4.4.1 旅游信息流的时间特征......................................................................71 4.4.2 旅游信息流的空间特征......................................................................73 4.5 旅游信息流的网络特征...........................................................................109 4.5.1 二分矩阵确立及网络构建................................................................109 4.5.2 旅游信息流联系强度........................................................................110 4.5.3 旅游信息流网络的空间结构............................................................114 4.5.4 网络整体结构特征............................................................................119 4.5.5 网络节点结构特征............................................................................129 4.6 本章小结...................................................................................................156 第 5 章 旅游信息流的动力机制...........................................................................159 5.1 研究方法...................................................................................................159 5.2 指标选取...................................................................................................160 5.2.1 推力因素指标选取............................................................................161 5.2.2 拉力因素指标选取............................................................................166 5.2.3 阻力因素指标选取............................................................................170 5.2.4 数据来源与说明................................................................................172 5.3 时间影响因素分析...................................................................................172 5.3.1 指标测度............................................................................................172 5.3.2 结果分析............................................................................................173 5.4 空间影响因素分析...................................................................................174 5.4.1 影响因素的 QAP 相关分析..............................................................174 5.4.2 客源地旅游信息流集聚的推力因素................................................180 5.4.3 目的地旅游信息流扩散的拉力因素................................................186 5.4.4 旅游信息流集聚与扩散的阻力因素................................................192 5.5 本章小结...................................................................................................195 第 6 章 旅游信息流的溢出效应.............................................................................199XVIII 6.1 旅游经济联系量测度...............................................................................199 6.1.1 测评模型............................................................................................199 6.1.2 数据说明............................................................................................201 6.1.3 旅游经济联系强度............................................................................202 6.1.4 旅游经济联系的时空格局................................................................205 6.2 旅游信息空间与旅游经济空间的关联性...............................................223 6.3 旅游信息流对旅游经济发展的影响及溢出效应...................................224 6.3.1 指标选取............................................................................................224 6.3.2 空间依赖性检验与空间权重设定....................................................227 6.3.3 模型设定与构建................................................................................229 6.3.4 实证结果及分析................................................................................230 6.3.5 稳健性检验........................................................................................240 6.4 本章小结...................................................................................................246 第 7 章 政策建议与组合策略...............................................................................251 7.1 旅游信息流与旅游经济发展耦合协调的关键因素识别.......................251 7.1.1 耦合协调评价模型............................................................................251 7.1.2 耦合结果分析....................................................................................254 7.1.3 耦合协调的驱动因素分析................................................................265 7.2 旅游信息流发展及空间结构优化策略...................................................272 7.2.1 时间层面上的对策建议....................................................................272 7.2.2 空间层面上的对策建议....................................................................273 7.2.3 最佳因果组合配置策略....................................................................276 7.3 旅游信息流效用发挥的对策建议...........................................................281 7.3.1 旅游信息流的作用效应发挥............................................................281 7.3.2 旅游信息流的溢出效应发挥............................................................282 7.3.3 最佳因果组合配置策略分析............................................................284 7.4 旅游信息空间与旅游经济空间的协调发展优化...................................287 7.4.1 协调发展的对策建议........................................................................287 7.4.2 最佳因果组合配置策略....................................................................290 7.5 本章小结...................................................................................................293XIX 第 8 章 研究结论与研究展望.................................................................................295 8.1 研究结论与讨论.......................................................................................295 8.1.1 区域旅游信息流具有明显的时空差异与集散特征........................295 8.1.2 区域旅游信息流网络具有明显的结构特征与效应........................296 8.1.3 旅游信息流演化主要受到推力、阻力及拉力等多种要素的影响 297 8.1.4 旅游信息流对旅游经济发展具有明显的影响作用及溢出效应....299 8.1.5 旅游信息空间与旅游经济空间耦合受到多种因素影响................300 8.1.6 优化机制需要由多种因素组合共同作用形成................................301 8.2 研究贡献与价值.......................................................................................302 8.2.1 理论贡献............................................................................................302 8.2.2 实践价值............................................................................................304 8.3 研究局限与展望.......................................................................................305 参考文献...................................................................................................................307 致谢...........................................................................................................................333 附录...........................................................................................................................335 附录 A 2011-2017 年长三角旅游信息流矩阵数据（日平均流量） ..........335 附录 B 2017 年 1-12 月长三角旅游信息流矩阵数据（日平均流量）......346 个人简历、在学期间发表的学术论文及研究成果...............................................3671