:公路汽车客运站是交通运输体系中的重要组成部分，它和公路共同为我国的经 济建设和人们的出行提供服务。目前，我国的公路建设取得了显著成就，特别是随着 大量高等级公路的相继建成和投入使用，使我国的公路交通事业实现了历史兴的飞跃 发展。但是，作为公路运输基础设施重要组成部分的汽车客运站的建设却相对滞后， 同时与公路建设项目可行性研究比较完善的编制方法和指标体系相比，公路汽车客运 站项目建设的可行性研究的方法和指标体系也很不完备。因此，借鉴相关领域的研究 成果，探讨和研究公路汽车客运站建设项目的可行性研究方法是有现实意义的。 由于客运站建设项目可行性研究所涉及的内容较多，对一些比较成熟的理论方法 不在本文的讨论范围之内，而是对其中一些不够成熟或者有可能取得进展的相关理论 方法(如:如何对客运量进行预测、如何对客运站进行选址布局、如何对客运站建设 项目进行效益评价)进行探讨。为此，作者主要完成了如下几项工作: (1)目前，对未来十年后的客运量进行预测所较常用的预测方法是时间序列平滑 法，但此法并不适用于长期预测。作者提出了较常用并且适合作长期预测的方法— 线性回归分析法(包括多元线性回归分析法和加权一元线性回归分析法)。 (2)由于多元线性回归模型的计算量较大，尤其当自变量的个数多于两个或者所 需的历史统计数据较多时，其计算量将非常庞大、计算过程也较复杂，而且还容易出 错，用手算是不现实的。为了简化多元线性回归模型的计算量，作者通过对Excel中 相关内容进行探讨分析，得出了一种既准确又省时的计算方法。 (3)用多元线性回归模型来预测客运量时所做的各种检验较多，对相关计算软件 的学习、理解及应用也较难以掌握。作者提出一种更简便的预测方法—加权一元线 J胜回归预测法。 (4)通过对客运站选址布局的原则方法进行分析探讨，提出了客运站布局的四种 基本模式:方向式、中心式、集中式和均衡式。 (5)对客运站建设项目的经济效益和社会效益评价中，明确了估算经营收入和营 业税金及附加总成本费用的方法;以及如何对客运站建设项目的微观经济效益和宏观 社会效益进行评价。 关键词:预测方法;回归分析;选址布局;效益评价 The Feasible Research of automobile passenger depot construction Wang Ceng-yu (Structura; Engineering) Directed by Lu Ning Abstract: The road automobile passenger depot is important constituent in the transportation system, it and the road together provides the service for our country's economic development and the people's journey. At present, our country's highway construction has obtained the remarkable achievement, especially massive first-class highway one after another being completed and put into use, caused the highway traffic enterprise of our country to realize the historical leap development. But, relatively lags actually as the highway transportation infrastructure important constituent automobile passenger depot construction, at the same time compares with the highway construction project feasibility study quite perfect establishment method and the target system, the road automobile passenger depot project construction feasibility study method and the target system very are also incomplete. Because the passenger depot items of basic construction feasible research institute involves content many, to some quite mature theory method not in this article discussion scope, but is insufficiently is mature to some or has the related theory method which the possibility obtains progresses (for example: How carries on the forecast to the passenger transport rate, how carries on the selected location layout to the passenger depot, how carries on the benefit appraisal to the passenger depot items of basic construction) to carry on the discussion. Therefore, the author has mainly completed the following several works: (1)at present, the time series smoothing procedures is a commonly used forecast method to the future ten years' passenger transport rate, but this law is not suitable for the long-term forecast. The author proposed the linear return analytic method which is commonly used and suitably for the long-term forecast (including multitude variables linear return analytic method and a weighting single regression linear return analytic method). (2)the computation of the multitude regression linear return model is too much, and when the independent variable is more than two or the history statistical data we needs is much, the computation is extremely huge, and the computation process also complex, also easy to make a mistake. So computation with the hand is not realistic. In order to simplify the computation of the many variables linear return model, through the analysis of the connected content to Excel, the author obtained a method which is both be accurate and the time-saving. (3)examinations we do, with multitude regression linear return model forecasting passenger transport rate, are many, also the study, the understanding and the application of the correlation software is difficult. The author proposed a simpler forecast method- weighting single regression linear return forecast method. (4 )through the analysis to the passenger depot selected location layout principle, proposed four kind of basic patterns of the passenger depot layout: the direction type, the central type, IV focused type and the balanced type. (5)in the appraisal to the economic efficiency and the social efficiency of the passenger depot items construction, has been clear about the estimate management income and business tax money and the attachment total cost expense method; As well as how to carry on the appraisal to the microscopic economic efficiency and the macroscopic social efficiency of the passenger depot construction items. Key word: the Forecast method; regression analysis; Selected location layout; Benefit appraisal v \ 目录 彗_音己!宣 二，J.祠声J.下刁 1.1研究目的与意义 1.2研究对象 1.3研究过程..................................................................................................................... 2 第二章概述 2.1基本概念 2.2客运站的分类.....................。........................。.......。...........................。二3 2.3客运站建设项目可行性研究的内容构成................................................................ 4 2.4客运站建设项目可行性研究的现状.........，..。二。............................................. 4 2.5国外汽车客运站建设经验借鉴................................................................................ 5 第三章需求预测及规模确定.............................8 3.1预测方法概述............................................................................................................. 8 3.2多元线性回归模型..................................................................................................... 9 3.3加权一元线性回归预测法.......................................................................................15 3.4回归分析预测法存在的不足................................................................................... 20 第四章客运站的选址布局.....................................21 4.1目前客运站选址布局存在的主要问题................................................................... 21 4.2客运站选址的原则................................................................................................... 22 4.3选择客运站站址的方法步骤................................................................................... 22 4.4客运站布局的原则................................................................................................... 23 4.5客运站布局的主要影响因素................................................................................... 23 4.6客运站布局的基本模式........................................................................................... 24 第五章经济效益和社会效益评价..............................26 5.1编写依据....................................................................,.............................................. 26 5.2项目预期现金流量估算........................................................................................... 26 5.3财务指标的计算和分析.................。.........。................................................. 28 5.4经济效益不确定性分析........................................................................................... 29 5.5宏观社会效益评价.…，.，，.，.，，。.........，二，，.…，.，.，二。.................................................... 29 第六章成果与展望..........................................31 6.1主要成果......................................................................,............................................. 31 6.2研究展望................................................................................................................... 31 致谢.....................................................33