可行性研究理论广泛地用于投资领域，逐渐发展为企业项目投资前工作的关键。 可行性研究是保障投资决策正确与可行的基本前提，同时也与项目获取收益紧密相关， 但是通常都会受社会、经济等诸多外部因素的干扰。因而，保障投资项目工作的顺利 展开以及效益的最大化获取则在很大程度上取决于投资决策的精准与科学与否。评估 投资项目的可行性因素主要有如下几点，一是技术可行；二是经济合理；三是效益显 著；四是项目具备生产等所需条件等。只有具备了上述几点要求，项目单位往往才着 手包括材料组织、运输等在内的一系列工作，进而保障项目的正常有序运行。 化工企业项目投资具备四大基本特征，一是资金投入大；二是技术含量高；三是 收益周期长；四是投资风险高等，因而在投资决策前需要借助可行性研究理论分析项 目建设的可行性，其中可行性与风险要素的分析尤为重要，直接关系着项目运行与否。 本文以甲醇下游深加工行业为调研对象，基于其背景条件，明确了其发展现状与 未来态势，同时也阐述了该行业的发展意义与价值。通过可行性研究理论对该项目进 行了具体研究，阐述了可行性研究方法并提出了分析和论证的思路。 1.分析项目投资的范围及目标导向，以及该项目的现实状况及实施效果； 2.对项目所处的市场条件及竞争力进行文献资料查阅、数据调查、采集，同时用数 据说明未来收益测算的合理性及可靠性； 3.对项目市场目标、供需，产品价格以及竞争力等进行分析，并对上述风险所带来 的影响进行识别； 4.根据投资分析的基础理论和实践方法对项目的投资财务分析作出尽量精确的测 算，确保接近真实投资水平。 本的研究成果对于化工项目实践具有借鉴意义。 关键词， 化工投资项目；可行性研究；市场分析；经济效益分析西南交通大学硕士研究生学位 第 II 页 Abstract Feasibility study gradually becomes an essential part of investment decision for enterprises because of its broad application on the field of investments. Feasibility study is the basic premise for an appropriate and reliable investment decision, which is tightly connected with the benefits from the project itself but usually under impacts of external factors such as society and economy. Therefore, the normal processing of an investment of project and acquirement of beneficial maximization greatly depends on whether the investment decision is precise and scientific. To evaluate the practicality of an investment of project, several factors need to be concerned: 1.it is based on practical technology; 2.it is economically rational;3.the benefit is apparent; 4.the project owns the required conditions for production. Only when the four factors above are fulfilled, can the company initiates a series of work including organization and transportation of materials, which in further ensures the project running normally and orderly. The investment of project of chemical shares four basic characteristics: 1. large funding input; 2. high technology requirement; 3.long return cycle; 4. great investment risk. Therefore, feasibility study is needed for analyzing the practicality of the project construction before the decision of investment, especially for the feasibility analysis and risk factor analysis, which have direct impacts on the success and effectiveness of the project investment. The article illustrates the developmental status and future tendency of methanol downstream manufacturing industry, as long as the value and benefit of the project itself , based on its background. Through the detailed study of methanol downstream manufacturing industry by feasibility study, analysis and argument of the feasibility study process as follows. Analyze the range and direction of project investment, illustrate the status and effectiveness of practical outcome. Articles citation, data collection and investigation are used to study the current market and noncompetitive environment. At the same time, the data is also used to illustrate the西南交通大学硕士研究生学位 第 III 页 rationality and reliability of future benefits. Analysis on the target market, supply and demand, product pricing and competitiveness of project and their impacts. Accurate measurements on financial analysis using fundamental theories and applied investment methods to ensure it is close to the real investment conditions. The research conclusions of this article will contribute to the study of the practicality of chemical engineering project. Keywords: Investment project of chemical engineering; feasibility study; market analysis; economic benefit analysis西南交通大学硕士研究生学位 第 IV 页 目 录 第 1 章 绪论............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义 ............................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ................................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ................................................................................................................. 2 1.2 研究方法和内容............................................................................................................ 4 1.2.1 研究的方法 ............................................................................................................. 4 1.2.2 研究的内容 ............................................................................................................. 4 1.3 可行性研究发展综述.................................................................................................... 5 1.3.1 国外研究综述 ......................................................................................................... 5 1.3.2 国内研究综述 ......................................................................................................... 6 第 2 章 可行性研究相关理论................................................................................................8 2.1 可行性研究概述............................................................................................................ 8 2.1.1 可行性研究概念和意义 ......................................................................................... 8 2.1.2 可行性研究的目的和作用 ..................................................................................... 8 2.2 可行性研究的步骤和内容.......................................................................................... 10 2.2.1 可行性研究的基本步骤 ....................................................................................... 10 2.2.2 可行性研究的内容 ............................................................................................... 11 第 3 章 投资项目市场分析..................................................................................................14 3.1 项目研究范围.............................................................................................................. 14 3.2 生产规模和产品方案.................................................................................................. 15 3.2.1 生产规模 ............................................................................................................... 15 3.2.2 产品方案 ............................................................................................................... 16 3.3 市场分析...................................................................................................................... 17 3.3.1 世界供需分析 ........................................................................................................ 18 3.3.2 国内供需分析 ....................................................................................................... 22 3.3.3 目标市场分析 ....................................................................................................... 35 3.3.4 产品竞争力分析 ................................................................................................... 35 3.4 市场研究风险分析...................................................................................................... 36 3.4.1 政策风险 ............................................................................................................... 36西南交通大学硕士研究生学位 第 V 页 3.4.2 市场供需风险 ....................................................................................................... 37 3.4.3 市场竞争力风险 ................................................................................................... 38 3.4.4 产品价格风险 ....................................................................................................... 39 第 4 章 项目经济效益分析和评价......................................................................................40 4.1 投资估算...................................................................................................................... 40 4.1.1 投资估算编制说明 ................................................................................................ 40 4.1.2 投资估算编制依据 ............................................................................................... 41 4.1.3 投资估算 ............................................................................................................... 42 4.1.4 资金筹措 ............................................................................................................... 50 4.2 财务分析评价.............................................................................................................. 51 4.2.1 财务评价依据 ................................................................................................... 51 4.2.2 价格体系 ............................................................................................................... 51 4.2.3 财务评价主要参数和数据 ................................................................................... 53 4.2.4 财务分析 ............................................................................................................... 57 4.2.5 不确定性分析 ....................................................................................................... 65 4.3 国民经济分析.............................................................................................................. 69 4.3.1 效益和费用调整范围 ............................................................................................ 69 4.3.2 效益和费用调整数值 ............................................................................................ 69 4.4 社会效益分析.............................................................................................................. 70 4.4.1 社会现状 ............................................................................................................... 70 4.4.2 社会影响效果分析 ............................................................................................... 71 第 5 章 结论与建议..............................................................................................................75 结论 ....................................................................................................................................75 建议 ....................................................................................................................................76 致谢....................................................................................................................................77