贫富差距的不断扩大成为引发犯罪的主要诱因，自上世纪九十年代末以来，以 侵财为目的的“两抢一盗”，甚至绑架勒索、杀人抢劫、抢劫强奸等刑事犯罪案件， 发案率持续居高不下，守法公民的生命财产安全受到了极大的威胁。当前迫切需要 一种比拨打“110”报警电话或发送短信更为快速、隐蔽、便捷、准确的报警方式， 以便能在面临不法侵害的情况下第一时间发出紧急报警求救信号并获得及时有效的 救助。 运用新的信息通信科技手段，为数以亿计有需求的手机用户，提供一种安防手 机终端，以及相应的接报警系统，是我国通信行业、也是我国政府和社会管理者不 可推卸的职责和使命。“一键式”数据紧急报警功能和防盗抢功能的手机新技术的问 世，不但能让遭到不法侵害的当事人在第一时间快速、隐蔽、准确地发出求救信号， 以便获得警方的及时解救，还能在不法侵害即将发生之际，提前向网络服务平台发 出预警信号，使手机真正发挥出“贴身保镖的作用。 T 公司自主研发的、具有多项知识产权和国家发明专利的“个人安全护卫”是 移动通信领域的一项全新的具有划时代意义的增值服务，“移动互联网快速隐蔽报警 技术系统”如能得到应用推广，每一个“安防手机”用户都可以成为警方的业余便 衣侦探，真正发挥出“警力有限、民力无穷”的巨大威力；这对犯罪嫌疑人将会起 到空前的震慑作用，从而达到重复犯罪率稳步回落，初次犯罪率大幅下降，社会治 安状况进一步好转的目的。 本商业计划书顺应科技创新可持续发展的要求，理论结合实际，通过阐述安防 手机的相关概念、国内安防行业发展现状及当前安防行业存在的问题及相关影响因 素，以 T 公司的安防手机项目为对象，运用战略管理的相关理论、收集相关研究文 献资料，采用 PEST 分析、内部条件分析和 SWOT 分析等方法，对安防行业发展所 面临的机遇和挑战进行了细致深入地分析，为安防手机的可持续发展提出一些对策 和建议。通过分析，得出几点对科技创新型企业创业发展初期具有借鉴意义的结论。 期望通过此份商业计划书向有兴趣的资金方和潜在投资者介绍T公司该项目的实际 情况，以产品未来的经济效益、社会效益打动出资人，实现股权或债权方式的资金 注入。 关键词，安防行业 手机终端 接警系统 项目市场 财务分析 风险管理首都经济贸易大学硕士学位报告 “安防手机项目”商业计划书 II Abstract The gap between the rich and poor becomes more and more serious; this is the main reason to cause the Crime. Since the late 1990s，the crime of robbery and stealing which is focus on seizing other’s property as purpose and the robbery with murder as well as robbery with rape are all ranked in a very high rate of crime incidence. This is a great threat for all citizens of their own life and property. In this situation, the urgent demand for the new channel of alarm mode which could be faster easier and hidden way compared with traditional phone dialing of 110 or SMS becomes more important. In that case, we could get quick help with sending the alarm signal immediately when we faced the illegally threat and violation. Using the new technology as a good tool to develop and invent a security terminals on the mobile phone which could connect with alarm system , this is also the mission and unavoidable responsibility for all social management bureau and the communications industry as well as government. The new mobile phone with the “One Key” emergency alarm system and self-protection from the robbery and stealing could not only help to send out the alarm information when the victims who is facing the dangerous situation but also could send the alarm information in advance to the alarm system before the dangerous situation real happened that could fulfill the effect of “bodyguard” of mobile phone. “Personal security” is a new product with value-added service which already gets many Independent intellectual property rights and national patent. If this new product of “Mobile internet alarm system” could be promoted and popularized, each customer who is using the mobile phone with this system could become the plainclothes detective which could fulfill the full power of the situation that the limitation of power of polices could be meet by each normal citizens. This great development also could be a great alarm and threat to all criminals that could decrease the criminals to break the law again step by step, at the same time, decrease the rate of people who break the law first time greatly. In that case, the social security will become better and better. This Business Plan meets the request of new technology innovation、continues development as well as combines the theory with the real operation. By elaborating the concept of this security alarm mobile phone、the current development situation of this industry as well as the current problem and the factors of impact it faced. Take this首都经济贸易大学硕士学位报告 “安防手机项目”商业计划书 III project of “security mobile phone” of T Company as the object, taking the related theory of strategic management as reference; collecting the related material; using the PEST analysis tool as well as the SWOT analysis tool. To develop the solution and suggestion of the industry development by using deeply analysis of the challenge and opportunity the industry faced. After the overall analysis, there are several conclusions which is good reference for this new innovation company. The purpose is that, this Business Plan could be as an introduction to all potential venture capital, related bureau. To attract the potential investor to get investment both for stock right and credit right by showing the future benefit this product could bring as well as the social effect. Key words ， Security industry Mobile phone terminal Alarm system Project and market Financial analysis Risk management首都经济贸易大学硕士学位报告 “安防手机项目”商业计划书 IV 阅读注意事项 1、目的 本商业计划书（ 以下简称“计划书” ）目的在于为有兴趣的资金方和潜在投 资者对该项目进行必要的了解和评估，提供参考意见。 2、内容及风险因素 本计划书含有 T 公司的商业机密信息，有兴趣的资金方和潜在投资者对本计划 书所提供的信息应当认真研究，充分考虑投资本项目将要面临的各种或有风险后， 进行科学判断，并据此做出自身的综合投资决定。 3、责任声明 本计划书所有信息由 T 公司提供，相关数据均来自企业内部或其他可靠途径， 其所涉及的内容和资料具有真实性和合法性，但鉴于发布时间关系，本计划书不代 表和保证所有信息的精确性和完整性，仅供有兴趣的资金方和潜在投资者参考使用。 4、机密性 本计划书阅读、研究者应接受一切保密协议中的条款和条件。特别是在未经 T 公司明确书面同意之前，任何研究、阅读本计划书者，都不得对本计划书及其任何 部分内容进行复印、引用、仿制或将内容泄露给其他第三方，并且在 T 公司要求退 还时，不得保留任何复印件。 5、有效期 本计划书的有效期自测算数据基准日 2013 年 11 月 15 日起壹年内有效。 6、其他方面 本计划书数据报告内容不用作融资报价使用，也不用作购买时的报价使用。 计划书引用的政策、法规不精准以外的原因导致出现项目方未实现预期目的或 不可预见情况，概不负责。 本计划书中所含中英文词句，若出现歧义以中文词句为准。本计划书文字容错 率小于千分之一。 以下未经特别说明，财务数据单位均为，人民币万元。首都经济贸易大学硕士学位报告 “安防手机项目”商业计划书 V 目录 摘要 .........................................................................................................................................................Ⅰ ABSTRACT................................................................................................................................................. Ⅱ 阅读注意事项 .........................................................................................................................................Ⅳ 0 绪论 ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 0.1.研究的背景和意义 ........................................................................................................................ 1 0.1.1.研究的背景........................................................................................................................... 1 0.1.2.研究的意义........................................................................................................................... 1 0.2.研究方法和研究内容 .................................................................................................................... 2 0.3.拟解决的关键问题 ........................................................................................................................ 4 1 项目摘要 ............................................................................................................................................. 5 1.1.项目名称 ........................................................................................................................................ 5 1.2.项目发起方 .................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2.1.公司注册成立信息............................................................................................................... 5 1.2.2.公司简介............................................................................................................................... 5 1.2.3.公司财务状况....................................................................................................................... 6 1.3.项目负责人 .................................................................................................................................... 7 1.4.项目背景 ........................................................................................................................................ 7 1.5.项目资金需求 ................................................................................................................................ 9 1.6.投资与合作计划 ............................................................................................................................ 9 1.7.项目预期收入 ................................................................................................................................ 9 1.8.资金退出方式 ................................................................................................................................ 9 2 项目产品 ...........................................................................................................................................10 2.1.产品简介 ......................................................................................................................................10 2.1.1.手机终端.............................................................................................................................10 2.1.2.接警系统.............................................................................................................................12 2.2.产品技术 ......................................................................................................................................12 2.3.产品功能特点 ..............................................................................................................................13 2.3.1.两种报警方式对比.............................................................................................................14 2.3.2.“个人安全护卫”的主要服务内容 .................................................................................15 2.3.3.紧急报警求救功能的主要特点.........................................................................................16 2.4.产品市场需求 .............................................................................................................................. 17 2.5.项目商业模式 ..............................................................................................................................18 2.5.1.商业模式介绍.....................................................................................................................19 2.5.2.盈利渠道介绍.....................................................................................................................19 3 项目市场分析 ................................................................................................................................... 20 3.1.PEST 模型分析 ............................................................................................................................. 20 3.1.1.政治法律因素的分析......................................................................................................... 20 3.1.2.经济环境因素的分析.........................................................................................................21 3.1.3.社会文化因素的分析.........................................................................................................22 3.1.4.技术因素的分析.................................................................................................................22 3.2 .市场特征分析..............................................................................................................................23 首都经济贸易大学硕士学位报告 “安防手机项目”商业计划书 VI 3.2.1.市场生命周期.....................................................................................................................23 3.2.2.经济周期.............................................................................................................................24 3.3 .中国安防行业发展分析.............................................................................................................. 25 3.3.1.中国安防业的现状............................................................................................................. 25 3.3.2.中国安防业存在的问题..................................................................................................... 26 3.4 .国内社会治安现状...................................................................................................................... 27 3.4.1.中国社会治安问题的深层原因......................................................................................... 27 3.4.2.全国社会治安状况分析.....................................................................................................28 3.5.安防手机市场发展分析 ..............................................................................................................28 3.5.1.智能手机市场.....................................................................................................................28 3.5.2.A‐GPS 手机市场..................................................................................................................29 3.5.3.安防手机发展市场前景预测.............................................................................................29 3.6 .市场分析小结..............................................................................................................................30 4 竞争与策略 .......................................................................................................................................31 4.1.SWOT 分析 ...................................................................................................................................31 4.1.1.项目优势.............................................................................................................................31 4.1.2.项目劣势.............................................................................................................................33 4.1.3.项目威胁.............................................................................................................................33 4.1.4.项目机会.............................................................................................................................33 4.2.竞争分析 ......................................................................................................................................33 4.3.竞争策略 ......................................................................................................................................34 4.3.1.品牌策略.............................................................................................................................34 4.3.2.人才策略.............................................................................................................................34 4.3.3.质量策略.............................................................................................................................34 4.3.4.信息策略.............................................................................................................................34 4.3.5.节本策略.............................................................................................................................35 4.3.6.信誉策略.............................................................................................................................35 4.4.营销推广策略 ..............................................................................................................................35 4.4.1.产品策略.............................................................................................................................35 4.4.2.宣传策略.............................................................................................................................35 4.4.3.销售策略.............................................................................................................................36 4.4.4.销售执行.............................................................................................................................36 5 项目数据及财务分析 ....................................................................................................................... 37 5.1.项目数据采集的内容 .................................................................................................................. 37 5.2.项目数据分析的假设前提 .......................................................................................................... 37 5.2.1.项目的顺利开展................................................................................................................. 37 5.2.2.项目的持续经营假设......................................................................................................... 37 5.2.3.产品市场平稳发展............................................................................................................. 37 5.2.4.国家经济发展稳定.............................................................................................................38 5.2.5.财务假设.............................................................................................................................38 5.3.数据采集的程序 ..........................................................................................................................38 5.3.1.制定市场研究的具体计划.................................................................................................38 5.3.2.明确数据来源.....................................................................................................................38 5.3.3.明确抽样方案.....................................................................................................................39 首都经济贸易大学硕士学位报告 “安防手机项目”商业计划书 VII 5.3.4.明确数据采集方法.............................................................................................................39 5.4.项目财务分析 ..............................................................................................................................39 5.4.1.市场推广与发展规划（未来 5 年）.................................................................................39 5.4.2.收入利润预测.....................................................................................................................41 5.4.3.各省市分年成本核算表.....................................................................................................42 5.4.4.总公司年度成本核算表.....................................................................................................44 5.4.5.费用核算表.........................................................................................................................44 6 经济效益分析 ................................................................................................................................... 47 6.1.静态评价指标 .............................................................................................................................. 47 6.1.1.静态投资回收期................................................................................................................. 47 6.1.2.投资报酬率......................................................................................................................... 47 6.2.动态评价指标 .............................................................................................................................. 47 6.2.1.净现值（NPV）分析.......................................................................................................... 47 6.2.2.内部收益率（IRR）分析 ...................................................................................................48 6.2.3.获利指数（PI）分析..........................................................................................................48 6.2.4.动态投资回收期分析.........................................................................................................49 7 风险与规避 .......................................................................................................................................50 7.1.项目风险因素 ..............................................................................................................................50 7.1.1.政策风险.............................................................................................................................50 7.1.2.市场风险.............................................................................................................................50 7.1.3.技术风险.............................................................................................................................50 7.1.4.经营管理风险..................................................................................................................... 51 7.1.5.财务风险............................................................................................................................. 51 7.2.风险规避对策 .............................................................................................................................. 51 7.2.1.政策风险规避对策............................................................................................................. 51 7.2.2.市场风险规避对策............................................................................................................. 52 7.2.3.技术风险规避对策............................................................................................................. 52 7.2.4.经营管理风险规避对策..................................................................................................... 52 7.2.5.财务风险规避对策............................................................................................................. 52 8 项目公司 ...........................................................................................................................................54 8.1.项目公司介绍 ..............................................................................................................................54 8.2.项目团队介绍 ..............................................................................................................................54 8.2.1.项目负责人简介.................................................................................................................54 8.2.2.项目团队简介..................................................................................................................... 55 8.3.项目企业管理 ..............................................................................................................................56 8.3.1.组织形式.............................................................................................................................56 8.3.2.组织结构.............................................................................................................................56 8.4.项目管理 ...................................................................................................................................... 57 8.4.1.项目管理模式..................................................................................................................... 57 8.4.2.管理措施.............................................................................................................................58 8.5.产品研发与管理 ..........................................................................................................................58 8.5.1.研发现状.............................................................................................................................58 8.5.2.研发未来.............................................................................................................................59 8.6.公司发展规划与战略 ..................................................................................................................59 首都经济贸易大学硕士学位报告 “安防手机项目”商业计划书 VIII 8.6.1.发展规划.............................................................................................................................59 8.6.2.战略选择及对项目中尚未解决问题的修改意见与建议 .................................................60 9 结论 ...................................................................................................................................................61