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MBA硕士毕业论文_KD资本对AK公司股权投资决策研究DOC

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AK 公司因为业务快速发展的需要,计划以 2018 年预测的净利润 3000 万元为基础, 按照不超过 10 倍市盈率估值增资扩股募集资金 4000 万元,定向邀请 KD 资本作为战略 投资者认购股权。作为受邀约方的 KD 资本决策层,在是否参与投资 AK 公司股权的问 题上产生了严重分歧,一是 KD 资本是否值得对 AK 公司的股权进行投资;二是投资 AK 公司股权的收益以及相关退出保障措施,能否实现 KD 资本“保息、保本、保利润” 的投资目标,本研究将为 KD 资本是否值得投资 AK 公司的股权提供投资决策的依据。 本文将围绕 AK 公司的增资扩股项目从标的公司的具体方案、主业竞争、财务评价、 公司估值、投资收益测算与风控管理等方面展开研究。首先,通过对 AK 公司基本情况、 公司的法人治理结构、人力资源配置等分析,判断出 AK 公司有进一步加速发展的基础; 其次,通过行业分析判断 AK 公司继续深耕海外智能手机市场有可持续发展的潜力;运 用 SWOT 战略分析工具对 AK 公司所处车联网行业进行战略分析,判断 AK 公司积极进 军车联网的战略选择是正确的;再次,从财务视角对 AK 公司尽职调查分析,得出 AK 公司在因为关联交易导致毛利率较低的情况下,通过高负债、高运营周转率,反而使得 净资产收益率 ROE 远优于对标的上市公司,并由此判断出 AK 公司的盈利能力、资金 利用效率在厘清关联交易的情况下将会得到进一步的提升;最后从 KD 资本投资 AK 公 司股权估值的角度,采用收益法股权评估、PE 估值法并结合对标同行企业 PE 估值,判 断出 KD 资本以 10 倍市盈率投资 AK 公司股权价格是合理的;同时从 KD 资本投资风 控措施及收益预测的角度分析,判断出 KD 资本的投资是安全的,投资的年化投资收益 率大于资金的成本,NPV 远远大于零,完全可以实现 KD 资本“保息、保本、保利润” 的投资要求。 通过本研究,分析出 AK 公司治理完善、战略选择正确;分析出 AK 公司盈利能力 较强;采用收益法评估出 AK 公司的股权评估值为 3.09 亿元,并通过对标同行业企业 PE 估值得出 KD 资本投资 AK 公司股权是值得的;KD 资本投资 AK 公司的股权具有较 好的投资收益盈利预期和投资退出安全保障。本研究有助于 KD 资本正确分析在投资此 类 PE 股权项目的研究决策过程中应当积极把握的机会和应当理性应对的风险点,并在 此基础上审慎地做出投资决策,以实现 KD 资本价值的最大化。 关键词,股权投资;财务分析;公司估值;投资决策II Abstract Because of the rapid development of AK's business, AK plans to invite KD capital to subscribe as a strategic investor on the basis of the net profit of 30 million yuan predicted in 2018, and raise 40 million yuan of additional capital and equity according to the valuation of price-earnings ratio not exceeding 10 times. As an invitee, KD capital decision-makers have serious differences on whether to participate in the investment of AK company's equity. Firstly, whether KD capital is worth investing in AK company's equity; secondly, whether the return of investing in AK company's equity and related exit safeguard measures can achieve the investment goal of interest, capital and profit preservation of KD capitalThis study will provide the basis of investment decision for whether KD capital is worth investing in AK company's equity. This paper will focus on the AK company's capital increase and equity expansion project from the specific plan of the target company, main industry competition, financial evaluation, company valuation, investment income calculation and wind control management. Firstly, through the analysis of AK company's basic situation, corporate governance structure and human resource allocation, it is judged that AK company has the basis for further accelerated development; secondly, through industry analysis, it is judged that AK company has the potential of sustainable development to continue to cultivate overseas smartphone market; secondly, it uses SWOT strategic analysis tool to analyze AK company's vehicle networking industry and judge A company's strategic development. K company's strategic choice of actively entering the vehicle networking is correct; thirdly, from the financial perspective of due diligence investigation and analysis of AK company, it is concluded that AK company, in the case of low gross interest rate caused by related party transactions, through high debt and high operating turnover rate, makes ROE of net assets return far superior to that of the target listed company, and thus judges AK company's profitability and capital utilization. At last, from the perspective of KD capital investment AK company's equity valuation, we use income method, PE valuation method and PE valuation method combined with PE valuation of counterpart enterprises to judge that it is reasonable for KD capital to invest AK company's equity price at 10 times P/E ratio. At the same time, we analyze KD capital investment wind control measures and earnings forecast. It is concluded that the investment of KD capital is safe. The annual return on investment is greater than the cost of capital, and the NPV is far greater than zero. It can fully meet the investment requirements of interest, capital and profit preservation of KD capital.III Through this study, it is concluded that AK company has perfect corporate governance and correct strategic choice; AK company has strong profitability; AK company's equity valuation value is 309 million yuan by income method, and it is worthwhile to invest in AK company by PE valuation of the same industry enterprise; KD capital investment in AK company's equity has better investment earnings expectation and investment withdrawal. Safety and security. This study is helpful for KD capital to correctly analyze the opportunities that should be grasped actively and the risk points that should be rationally dealt with in the process of investing in such PE equity projects. On this basis, investment decisions should be made prudently in order to maximize the value of KD capital. Key words: Equity Investment; Financial Analysis; Company Valuation; Investment DecisionIV 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... II 图表目录................................................................................................................................ VII 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义 ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 文献综述 ......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 关于投资及行业战略分析的文献研究................................................................... 2 1.2.2 关于股权投资财务效益评价的文献研究............................................................... 5 1.3 研究方法和内容 ............................................................................................................. 8 第二章 AK 公司增资扩股方案及主业竞争分析...................................................................9 2.1 AK 公司增资扩股方案的产生........................................................................................ 9 2.1.1 AK 公司增资扩股方案 ............................................................................................. 9 2.1.2 KD 资本的投资原则 ............................................................................................... 10 2.2 AK 公司现状.................................................................................................................. 13 2.2.1 AK 公司治理及人力资源配置 ............................................................................... 14 2.2.2 AK 公司领军人物及核心高管团队 ....................................................................... 15 2.3 AK 公司发展规划.......................................................................................................... 15 2.3.1 智能手机业务发展规划......................................................................................... 16 2.3.2 车联网业务发展规划............................................................................................. 16 2.4 AK 公司主业竞争分析.................................................................................................. 17 2.4.1 AK 公司车联网主业竞争分析 ............................................................................... 17 2.4.2 AK 公司智能手机主业竞争分析 ........................................................................... 20 2.4.3 AK 公司综合优势分析 ........................................................................................... 22 2.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 23 第三章 从财务视角对 AK 公司的尽职调查分析................................................................24 3.1 AK 公司资产特征及其结构分析.................................................................................. 24 3.1.1 流动资产分析......................................................................................................... 25 3.1.2 非流动资产分析..................................................................................................... 27V 3.2 AK 公司负债及所有者权益分析.................................................................................. 27 3.2.1 负债分析................................................................................................................. 28 3.2.2 所有者权益分析..................................................................................................... 29 3.3 AK 公司经营特征分析.................................................................................................. 30 3.4 AK 公司现金流分析...................................................................................................... 32 3.5 AK 公司主要财务指标分析.......................................................................................... 36 3.5.1 偿债能力分析......................................................................................................... 36 3.5.2 运营能力分析......................................................................................................... 38 3.5.3 盈利能力分析......................................................................................................... 40 3.6 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 41 第四章 KD 资本对 AK 公司的估值分析 .............................................................................42 4.1 AK 公司股权评估.......................................................................................................... 42 4.1.1 评估方法的选择及评估步骤................................................................................. 42 4.1.2 AK 公司股权评估计算及分析 ............................................................................... 43 4.1.3 AK 公司股权评估结果 ........................................................................................... 45 4.2 AK 公司估值测算.......................................................................................................... 48 4.2.1 KD 资本持股比例及价格分析 ............................................................................... 48 4.2.2 AK 公司股权估值的合理性分析 ........................................................................... 50 4.3 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 51 第五章 KD 资本股权投资收益分析及风险应对.................................................................52 5.1 AK 公司收益测算.......................................................................................................... 52 5.1.1 AK 公司未来三年盈利预测 ................................................................................... 52 5.1.2 AK 公司 2018 年实现盈利目标预测 ..................................................................... 54 5.2 KD 资本股权投资退出方式.......................................................................................... 54 5.2.1 KD 资本股权退出 PE 估值假设 ............................................................................ 55 5.2.2 KD 资本股权退出投资收益测算 ........................................................................... 56 5.3 KD 资本股权退出对赌设计.......................................................................................... 56 5.4 投资风险因素分析及对策 ........................................................................................... 58 5.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 60 结 论........................................................................................................................................61VI