淮南市 ZB 粉煤灰开发利用有限公司位于安徽省淮南市大通区上窑李家洼，注册 资金为 1000 万人民币，主营粉煤灰精加工业务。为扩大经营规模，拟改扩建一条粉 煤灰生产线，经技术论证，初步确定改扩建后项目的生产规模为 50 万吨/年。 为评价淮南市ZB公司粉煤灰生产项目方案的经济可行性，本文以建筑工程经济、 技术经济等理论为指导，采用净现金流量、累计净现金流量对该项目的财务生存能力 进行了分析；采用静态投资回收期、财务净现值对项目的盈利能力状况进行了评价； 采用量本利分析法对拟建项目的风险进行了评价；采用敏感性系数指标寻找该项目的 敏感性因素，寻找项目风险的主要来源；采用临界值指标评价指标对拟建项目的预警 值进行了研究。 通过一系列研究，得出如下主要结论： （1）拟建项目在运营期间每年的净现金流量为 417.3 万元，从第三年开始累计 净现金流量为正值，整个项目运营期间，累计净现金流量为 3073 万元；项目运营期 间的每年净现金流量及累计净现金流量表明，项目的财务可持续的条件良好，财务生 存能力较强。 （2）拟建项目的静态投资回收期仅为 2.6 年，表明在投资的 2.6 年就可以收回投 资，项目的服务期 10 年，表明项目的盈利能力良好；项目的财务净现值为 1700 万元， 表明项目投产后盈利能力较好；静态盈利指标和动态盈利指标的计算结果表明，项目 的盈利能力较好。 （3）采用量本利分析法对拟建项目的风险进行分析，项目的生产能力利用率为 15.67%时，该项目的盈亏达到平衡状态，表明项目投产后用很小的生产能力，就可以 实现盈亏平衡，风险相对较小，很容易实现盈利。 （4）采用敏感度系数进行分析表明，价格、经营成本和生产期限的敏感度系数 为 4.55、1.90、1.23，表明三个因素发生 1%的变动，就会带来项目财务净现值指标 4.5%、1.9%和 1.23%的变动，由于它们是财务净现值指标的影响大，因此价格、经营 成本、生产期限是该项目的敏感性因素。 （5）采用临界值指标对价格、经营成本和生产期限三个敏感性因素的预警值进 行了确定。3 个敏感型因素的临界值分别为-21.976%、52.68%和-69.23%，表明当价 格下降 21.976%，经营成本增加 52.68%，生产期限缩短 69.23%，项目方案的净现值 将小于 0，项目方案将不可行。 （6）综合以上研究结论表明：拟建项目的项目方案在经济上是可行的。 为了保证改扩建项目的正常运营，报告针对项目的研究结论针对性的提出了 5 个方面的风险防控对策建议。具体包括：①加强项目的现金流管控工作；②努力降低2 经营成本；③做好价格风险防控工作；④保障拟建项目合理的服务年限；⑤做好敏感 性因素的预警管理等风险防控对策建议。 关键词：经济可行性；财务生存能力；确定性分析；不确定性分析I ABSTRACT Huainan ZB Fly Ash Development and Utilization Co., Ltd. is located in Lijiawa, Shangyao, Datong District, Huainan City, Anhui Province. It has registered capital of 10 million RMB and is mainly engaged in the fine processing of fly ash. In order to expand the scale of operation, it is proposed to rebuild and expand a fly ash production line. After technical demonstration, the production scale of the project after rebuilding and expansion is preliminarily determined to be 500,000 tons per year. In order to evaluate the economic feasibility of the technical scheme of fly ash production project of ZB Company in Huainan City, guided by the theory of construction engineering economy and technology economy, this paper uses net cash flow and accumulative net cash flow to analyze the financial viability of the project, uses static payback period and financial net present value to evaluate the profitability of the project, and uses quantity-cost-profit analysis method to evaluates the risk of the proposed project; uses the sensitivity coefficient index to find the sensitive factors of the project and the main source of the project risk; and uses the critical value index to study the early warning value of the proposed project. Through a series of studies, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) The net cash flow of the proposed project is 41.73 million yuan annually during the operation period, and the cumulative net cash flow is positive from the third year. The cumulative net cash flow is 30.73 million yuan during the whole operation period of the project. The annual net cash flow and cumulative net cash flow during the operation period of the project show that the financial sustainability of the project is good and the financial viability is strong. (2) The static payback period of the proposed project is only 2.6 years, which indicates that the investment can be recovered in 2.6 years, and the service period of the project is 10 years, which indicates that the profitability of the project is good; the net present value of the project is 17 million yuan, which indicates that the profitability of the project is better after putting into operation; the calculation results of the static profitability index and the dynamic profitability index show that the profitability of the project is good. (3) Quantity-cost-profit analysis method is used to analyze the risk of the proposed project. When the utilization ratio of production capacity of the project is 15.67%, the profit and loss of the project reach a balance state, which indicates that the project canII achieve profit and loss balance with a small production capacity after putting into operation. The risk is relatively small and it is easy to achieve profit. (4) The sensitivity coefficient analysis shows that the sensitivity coefficients of price, operating cost and production period are 4.55, 1.90 and 1.23, which indicates that 1% change of the three factors will bring about 4.5%, 1.9% and 1.23% change of the project's net financial present value index. Because they are the major impact of the financial net present value index, the price, operating cost and production period are the sensitivity factors of the project. (5) The early warning values of price, operating cost and production period are determined by the critical value index. The critical values of the three sensitive factors are - 21.976%, 52.68% and - 69.23% respectively, which indicates that when the price falls by 21.976%, the operating cost increases by 52.68%, the production period shortens by 69.23%, and the net present value of the technical scheme will be less than 0, the technical scheme will not be feasible. (6) The conclusion of the above research shows that the technical scheme of the proposed project is economically feasible. In order to ensure the normal operation of the reconstruction and expansion project, the paper puts forward five risk prevention and control countermeasures and suggestions according to the research conclusions of the project. Specifically, it includes: (1) strengthening cash flow control of the project; (2) reducing operating costs; (3) doing a good job in price risk prevention and control; (4) ensuring reasonable service life of the proposed project; (5) Doing a good job in early warning management of sensitive factors, etc. KEYWORDS: economic feasibility; financial viability; certainty analysis; uncertainty analysis1 目 录 第一章 绪论............................................. 1 第一节 研究背景与研究意义........................................1 一、研究背景 ....................................................1 二、研究意义 ....................................................1 第二节 国内外研究现状............................................2 一、国外研究现状 ................................................2 二、国内研究现状 ................................................3 三、研究评述 ....................................................4 第三节 研究内容与方法............................................4 一、研究内容 ....................................................4 二、研究方法 ....................................................5 三、报告创新点 ..................................................6 第二章 理论基础......................................... 8 第一节 可行性研究理论............................................8 一、可行性研究的含义 ............................................8 二、可行性研究的内容 ............................................8 三、经济可行性评价的内容 ........................................8 四、项目方案经济可行性评价的方法 ................................9 五、建设项目总投资的构成 .......................................11 第二节 投入产出理论.............................................11 一、投出产出分析的概念 .........................................11 二、投入产出分析的形式 .........................................12 三、投入产出分析的类型 .........................................12 四、投入产出理论的产生和发展 ...................................13 第三节 效益最大化理论...........................................13 一、经济效益的含义 .............................................132 二、经济效益的评价标准 .........................................13 三、经济效益的评价体系 .........................................14 第四节 资金时间价值理论.........................................15 一、资金时间价值的概念 .........................................15 二、资金时间价值的度量 .........................................15 三、项目计算期与现金流量 .......................................16 四、资金等值的计算 .............................................16 第三章 粉煤灰项目建设规划方案.......................... 18 第一节 项目规划概况.............................................18 一、产品市场需求 ...............................................18 二、项目建设目的 ...............................................18 第二节 项目建设条件.............................................19 一、生产场地选址 ...............................................19 二、主要原材料来源 .............................................19 三、其他建设条件 ...............................................19 第三节 项目方案.................................................19 一、生产能力 ...................................................19 二、生产工艺 ...................................................20 三、系统工艺布置 ...............................................22 第四节 环境保护与安全卫生.......................................23 一、环境保护标准 ...............................................23 二、生产车间环境保护措施 .......................................24 三、职工安全卫生 ...............................................24 第四章 项目的确定性分析................................. 25 第一节 现金流量表构成要素估算...................................25 一、总投资估算 .................................................25 二、营业收入估算 ...............................................27 三、经营成本估算 ...............................................283 四、税金 .......................................................31 五、现金流量表要素估算结论 .....................................32 第二节 项目财务生存能力分析......................................33 一、分析目的 ...................................................33 二、分析依据 ...................................................33 三、分析的数据来源 .............................................33 四、计算分析与结论 .............................................33 第三节 项目的盈利能力分析........................................36 一、盈利能力分析目的 ...........................................36 二、盈利能力评价指标的选取 .....................................36 三、数据来源说明 ...............................................36 四、静态投资回收期分析 .........................................36 五、财务净现值分析 .............................................37 六、盈利能力分析结论 ...........................................38 第五章 项目的不确定性分析.............................. 40 第一节 分析说明..................................................40 一、不确定性分析的目的 .........................................40 二、分析方法的选择 .............................................40 第二节 项目的盈亏平衡分析.......................................40 一、量本利分析模型 .............................................40 二、分析的数据来源 .............................................41 三、盈亏平衡指标的计算 .........................................42 四、盈亏平衡分析结论 ...........................................43 第三节 项目的敏感性分析..........................................43 一、分析说明 ...................................................43 二、敏感性指标的计算与分析 .....................................44 三、不确定性分析结论 ...........................................48 第六章 结论与建议...................................... 494 第一节 研究结论....................................................49 第二节 相关建议....................................................50 第三节 研究展望....................................................51