随着我国社会经济的发展，汽车数量在迅速增加，汽车排放的尾气污染日益严重， 因此，国家积极支持“清洁燃料汽车”的发展。山东省作为我国经济发展大省，能源需 求旺盛，环保压力大，对天然气的需求非常迫切。 本文以济阳 CNG 加气母站项目为研究对象，在掌握大量信息资源的基础上，运用可 行性研究的相关理论，对 CNG 加气母站项目从建设的必要性、技术适应性、经济合理性 及财务评价各个角度进行分析，论证其可行性和经济性。 本文首先介绍了济阳 CNG 加气母站项目建设的背景及必要性，然后利用翔实的数据 详细地分析了 CNG 站的气源、市场现状和前景预测，并结合济南城市燃气发展规划和已 有 CNG 站的建设情况，确定了项目的建设方案和规模，并对项目的节能、环保、安全方 面做专项分析，提出相应的对策措施，最后阐述了对该项目的投资估算和资金筹措，还 进行了经济评价，评价内容包括成本和费用估算、销售收入，并就敏感性分析和盈亏平 衡分析两方面，进行了不确定性分析。分析、评价结果表明，该项目可行。 关键词: 济阳，CNG，可行性研究ii Feasibility Study On the JiYang CNG Station Project Sun Jing Directed by Prof. Li Hongxun Abstract With the rapid development of economy and society in China,the number of automobile is increased rapidly, and the pollution occured by automobile emission becoming more and more serious.So our cuntry active support the development of clean fuel automobiles.Shandong province,as a province with high Economy,energy demand is soaring,The environmental pressure also raised and the demand for natural gas is still very huge. This paper study on JiYang CNG station, it based on lots of information, and using the related theories of feasibility study to analyzing the necessity of construction, technological adaptability, economic rationality and financial evaluation, and last demonstrated the feasibility and economy of this project. This paper first introduces the background and necessity of JiYang CNG station. Then it used lots of practical data to anlysising the gas source, market status, prediction. We combined with the development plan of JiNan city gas and construction situation of CNG station, then determined the construction plan and scale. The paper emphatically analyzes the general planning of this project, determined many technical scheme, such as the station address, process design, public facilities and so on. It have make analyse for energy saving, environmental protection, security ,advances the corresponding counter-measures.At last, the paper described investment estimation and financing of the plan. It has made an economic evaluation of cost and expense estimation and sales income. The paper also made a uncertain analysis for sensitivity analysis and break-even analysis. The evaluation and analysis proved that the project were feasible. Key Words：Ji Yang,CNG, Feasibility Studyiii 目 录 第 1 章 前言..............................................................1 1.1 选题背景 .........................................................1 1.2 研究意义 .........................................................2 1.3 国内外研究现状...................................................2 1.4 研究内容 .........................................................2 第 2 章 市场预测..........................................................4 2.1 项目建设背景 .....................................................4 2.2 项目建设必要性 ...................................................5 2.3 气源 .............................................................6 2.4 市场 .............................................................7 2.4.1 燃气汽车国内外现状..........................................7 2.4.2 CNG 与 LPG 优缺点分析 ........................................8 2.4.3 CNG 与汽油优缺点分析.........................................8 2.4.4 汽车改装费用的调查 ..........................................9 2.4.5 济南城市 CNG 汽车发展现状及用气量的预测 .....................10 2.4.6 非直供管道工业用户现状及其用气量的预测 .....................12 2.4.7 济南市天桥区桥北工业园 CNG 用气量的预测 .....................13 2.4.8 CNG 汽车及非直供管道工业用户用气量的汇总 ...................14 第 3 章 建设方案及规模分析...............................................15 3.1 济南市 CNG 市场 ..................................................15 3.2 非管道直供用户 ..................................................15 3.3 济南市 CNG 加气站建设情况 ........................................16 3.4 CNG 加气母站规模的确定...........................................16 3.5 CNG 加气母站市场份额.............................................17 3.6 CNG 加气站建设方案...............................................17 第 4 章 社会效益分析.....................................................19 4.1 节能 ............................................................19 4.1.1 综合能效分析 ...............................................19 4.1.2 节能措施 ...................................................19 4.1.3 单项节能措施 ...............................................19 4.1.4 综合能效分析表 .............................................20 4.1.5 结论 .......................................................20 4.2 环保 ............................................................20 4.2.1 自然环境和社会环境 .........................................21 4.2.2 环境敏感区 .................................................21 4.2.3 环境污染分析 ...............................................22 4.2.4 工程对环境可能造成的影响 ...................................22 4.2.5 环保对策措施 ...............................................23 4.2.6 环保管理及监测 .............................................24 4.2.7 结论 .......................................................24iv 4.3 安全 ............................................................24 4.3.1 危及安全的物质及危险因素分析 ...............................25 4.3.2 设计中的对策与措施 .........................................26 4.3.3 现场施工安装过程中的对策与措施 .............................27 4.3.4 危险有害因素防护措施 .......................................27 4.3.5 安全管理机构设置 ...........................................28 4.3.6 预期效果 ...................................................28 第 5 章 经济评价.........................................................29 5.1 投资估算 ........................................................29 5.1.1 工程量概况 .................................................29 5.1.2 测算依据 ...................................................29 5.1.3 投资估算 ...................................................30 5.1.4 资金筹措 ...................................................30 5.2 经济评价 ........................................................30 5.2.1 评价依据 ...................................................30 5.2.2 基础数据 ...................................................30 5.2.3 成本及费用估算 .............................................31 5.2.4 销售收入 ...................................................31 5.2.5 盈利能力分析 ...............................................31 5.2.6 不确定性分析 ...............................................31 5.2.7 财务评价结论 ...............................................34 结论.....................................................................35