改革开放以来中国经济发展取得了重大成就，但是中国劳动报酬占比却仍然 处于较低水平，这不仅不利于居民生活水平的提高，也阻碍了中国经济的持续稳 定发展。因此围绕中国劳动报酬占比这一课题，众多学者进行了研究。但是新时 代时期中国经济呈现了新的特征，影响劳动报酬占比的因素出现了新的变化。基 于此，文章的主要目的是研究新时代背景下中国劳动报酬占比的走势及其主要影 响因素。 首先,文章分析并指出了新时代背景下中国经济呈现的新特征，主要有，（1） 坚持以人民为中心的经济发展思想；（2）中国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量 发展阶段，坚持“稳中求进”；（3）创新是引领发展的第一动力；（4）对外贸易和 外商直接投资由数量型向质量型转变，对外直接投资迅速发展；（5）第三产业已 经成为驱动经济增长的主要动力。 其次，文章从全国、分地区、各省三个层次对 1999-2017 年中国劳动报酬占比 数据进行了直观描述，发现中国劳动报酬占比走势大致呈现“U 型规律”，且于 2007 年开始进入“U 型规律”右端，即上升阶段。 再次，文章结合新时代背景，对现有众多文献进行了总结与分析，得出城镇 化、产业结构、人力资本、资本深化这四个因素是影响新时代时期中国劳动报酬 占比走势的主要因素。除此之外文章还提出了三个可能对新时代时期中国劳动报 酬占比走势产生重要影响的因素，分别是新一代劳动力群体、人口结构、对外直 接投资。然后从理论分析以及经验分析两个角度逐个对这三个因素进行了详细分 析。 然后，构建决定中国劳动报酬占比影响因素的理论模型，分析城镇化水平、 人力资本、产业结构、对外直接投资、资本深化对劳动报酬占比的影响。进一步 构建了计量模型对 2013-2017 年中国省级面板数据进行实证分析，发现产业结构升 级、新一代劳动力群体、对外直接投资、资本深化、人口结构这五个因素对中国 劳动报酬占比的影响显著且为正，城镇化水平对中国劳动报酬占比的影响显著但 为负。最后，文章提出了提高中国劳动报酬占比的政策建议。 关键词，新时代；劳动报酬占比；中国经济新特征；对外直接投资；新一代劳动 力群体III Abstract Since the reform and opening up, China's economic development has made great achievements, but the proportion of labor remuneration in China is still at a low level, which is not only bad for the improvement of people's living standards, but also hinders the sustained and stable development of China's economy. Therefore, many scholars have conducted researches on the topic of the proportion of labor remuneration in China. However, there is little research on the trend of the proportion of labor remuneration and its main influencing factors in the new era. Based on this, the main purpose of this paper is to study the trend and main influencing factors of the proportion of labor remuneration in China in the new era. First of all, this paper summarizes the new characteristics of China's economy in the context of the new era, mainly including (1) adhering to the people-centered economic development thinking; (2) China's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage, insisting on “stable” (3) Innovation is the first driving force for development; (4) Foreign trade and foreign direct investment have changed from quantity to quality, and foreign direct investment has developed rapidly; (5) the tertiary industry has become the main driving force of economic growth. Secondly, the data of labor remuneration proportion in China from 1999 to 2017 were intuitively described from the national, regional and provincial levels, and it was found that the trend of labor remuneration proportion in China generally presented a u-shaped law, and began to enter the right end of the u-shaped law in 2007, that is, the rising stage. Thirdly, combined with the background of the new era, this paper summarizes and analyzes many existing literatures, and concludes that urbanization, industrial structure, human capital and capital deepening are the four main factors influencing the trend of labor remuneration in China in the new era. In addition, this paper also puts forward three factors that may have an important impact on the trend of the proportion of labor remuneration in China in the new era, namely, the new generation of labor force, demographic structure, and foreign direct investment. Then, these three factors are analyzed in detail from the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. Then, construct a theoretical model that determines the factors affecting the proportion of labor compensation in China, and analyze the impact of urbanization level, human capital, foreign direct investment, industrial structure, foreign direct investment, and capital deepening on the proportion of labor compensation. Then we construct an econometric model to analyze the provincial panel data of China from 2013 to 2017. We find that the upgrading of industrial structure, the new generation of labor force, capital deepening, population structure and foreign direct investment have significant and positive impacts on the proportion of labor remuneration in China. The level of urbanization has significant but negative impacts on the proportion of labor remuneration in China.Finally, this paper proposes policy recommendations to increase the proportion of labor compensation in China.IV KEYWORDS，The new age；Proportion of labor remuneration；The new characteristics of China's economy；OFDI；The new generation of labor forceV 目 录 第一章 引言.....................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义 .................................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景 ...................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义 ...................................................................................................2 1.2 新时代下中国经济新特征 ..................................................................................2 1.3 研究方法和研究内容 ..........................................................................................8 1.3.1 研究方法 ...................................................................................................8 1.3.2 研究内容 ...................................................................................................9 1.4 本文的创新 ..........................................................................................................9 第二章 中国劳动报酬占比的度量及现状分析...........................................................11 2.1 中国劳动报酬占比的定义与度量 ...................................................................11 2.2 劳动报酬占比的现状分析 ...............................................................................11 2.2.1 全国劳动报酬占比现状 ..........................................................................12 2.2.2 分地区劳动报酬占比现状分析 ..............................................................13 2.2.3 各省劳动报酬占比的现状分析 ..............................................................14 第三章 相关理论、研究成果及述评.........................................................................16 3.1 经典收入分配理论回顾 ....................................................................................16 3.1.1 古典经济学的要素分配理论 .................................................................16 3.1.2 马克思主义经济学收入分配理论 .........................................................17 3.1.3 新古典经济学的分配理论 .....................................................................17 3.1.4 凯恩斯主义的分配理论 .........................................................................18 3.2 劳动报酬占比的走势研究 ................................................................................18 3.3 影响劳动报酬占比走势的主要因素分析 ........................................................19 3.3.1 城乡二元经济结构变化对劳动报酬占比的影响分析 ..........................20 3.3.2 经济发展水平与产业结构对劳动报酬占比的影响分析 ......................21 3.3.3 人力资本对劳动报酬占比的影响分析 ..................................................23 3.3.4 外商直接投资（FDI）对劳动报酬占比的影响分析............................24 3.3.5 对外贸易水平对劳动报酬占比的影响分析 ..........................................26 3.3.6 技术进步对劳动报酬占比的影响分析 ..................................................27 3.3.7 资本深化对劳动报酬占比的影响分析 ..................................................28 3.3.8 影响劳动报酬占比的其它因素 ..............................................................30 3.3.9 简要评价 ..................................................................................................31VI 第四章 影响劳动报酬占比因素的进一步分析...........................................................32 4.1 新一代劳动力群体对劳动报酬占比的影响 ....................................................32 4.1.1 理论分析 ..................................................................................................32 4.1.2 经验分析 ..................................................................................................33 4.2 人口结构对劳动报酬占比的影响 ....................................................................36 4.2.1 理论分析 .................................................................................................36 4.2.2 经验分析 .................................................................................................37 4.3 对外直接投资（OFDI）对劳动报酬占比的影响...........................................39 4.3.1 理论分析 ..................................................................................................39 4.3.2 经验分析 ..................................................................................................40 第五章 劳动报酬占比影响因素的实证分析...............................................................43 5.1 面板数据的选择 ...............................................................................................43 5.2 变量说明及数据来源 .......................................................................................43 5.3 理论模型 ...........................................................................................................44 5.4 基于省际面板数据的实证分析 .......................................................................45 5.4.1 描述性分析 .............................................................................................46 5.4.2 面板数据模型的选择 .............................................................................46 5.4.3 实证结果 .................................................................................................47 5.4.4 实证结果分析 .........................................................................................48 第六章 结论及提高劳动报酬占比的建议...................................................................50 6.1 结论 ...................................................................................................................50 6.2 提高劳动报酬占比的建议 ...............................................................................50 6.2.1 转变经济发展方式，优化产业结构 .....................................................51 6.2.2 大力发展教育与改善劳动力流动效率并行 .........................................51 6.2.3 优化对外直接投资方式 .........................................................................52 6.2.4 注重开发老年人力资源，大力发展养老产业 .....................................53 6.2.5 保持合理适度的投资规模 .....................................................................53