房地产业作为国民经济的支柱行业之一,受到越来越多的投资者关注,大量 闲散资金争先进入这个行业。但房地产业作为高投入、高回报、高风险的“三高” 行业，其投资的风险性必须首先得到投资者的高度重视。 本文通过对地铁房地产 A 项目的研究为例，通过对天津房地产市场进行具体 调查、研究、分析，确定有利和不利的因素、分析项目是否可行，评估项目的经 济效益和社会效果程度，为企业决策层提供项目决策的依据。 首先，本文通过对项目可行性研究历程的回顾及发展现状的研究，总结了房 地产项目可行性研究的特殊性，并且讨论了具体的研究方法和研究内容。 其次，本文以地铁房地产 A 项目作为研究目标，通过对天津市房地产市场的 调研。结合政府层面的持续的政策调控和严峻的市场状况进行了风险预测。并对 住宅、商业、写字楼等业态分类进行了市场调研及对比分析，以此为依据为项目 进行整体市场定位，确认项目大体销售预期价格，预测项目收入情况。 再次，通过对项目各类成本进行分析。确认项目建安成本以及相关费用的缴 纳比例，最后锁定了项目的总体成本，根据“利润=收入-成本”的会计原理，搭 建现金流量分析表，以获得项目的盈利情况。 最后，通过锁定项目最低利润率的方法，倒推出项目所能承受的最高土地成 本，为 A 项目土地摘牌提供最高摘牌上限的建议，为公司决策提供依据。 关键词， 房地产 风险 可行性研究 A 项目ABSTRACT The real estate industry as one of the pillar industries of the national economy, more and more investors, a large number of idle funds to enter the industry. But the real estate industry as a high investment, high return, high risk of the three high industry, the investment risks must be attached great importance to investors. In this paper, through the study of the Metro real estate A project as an example, through to the Tianjin real estate market specific investigation, research, analysis, analysis of whether the project is feasible to determine the factors, favorable and unfavorable, assessment project economic benefits and social effect level, project decision-making for enterprise decision-making basis. First of all, through the study of review and the development status of the project feasibility study process, summarizes the particularity of the real estate development project feasibility study, and discussed the specific research method and content. Secondly, taking the Metro real estate A projects as the research object, through the research of Tianjin city real estate market. Combined with the government continued the policy of regulation and severe market situation of risk prediction. And the residential, commercial, office and other Yetai classification of market research and contrast, as a basis for overall project market positioning, confirm project gross sales are expected to price, forecast project income. Thirdly, based on the project of various cost analysis. The confirmation of project cost and related expense payment ratio, finally locked the overall cost of a project, according to the principles of accounting profit = revenue - cost, build up cash flow analysis, to get profit of the project. Finally, through the method of locking the lowest profit rate, the highest land costs down to launch the project can bear, provide the highest delisting cap proposal for land delisted from the A project, provides the basis for the decision-making of the company. KEY WORDS，Real estate, The risk, Feasibility study, The A project- i - 目 录 目录 第一章 绪论.........................................................1 1.1 研究的背景及意义 ...................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究的背景.....................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究的意义.....................................................................................1 1.2 国内外研究现状 .......................................................................................2 1.2.1 国外研究现状.................................................................................2 1.2.2 国内研究现状.................................................................................2 1.3 研究内容与研究方法 ...............................................................................3 1.3.1 研究内容.........................................................................................3 1.3.2 研究方法.........................................................................................4 1.3.3 研究的核心问题.............................................................................4 第二章 可行性研究的理论介绍.........................................5 2.1 可行性研究概念 .......................................................................................5 2.2 可行性研究的原则 ...................................................................................5 2.2.1 科学性原则.....................................................................................5 2.2.2 客观性原则.....................................................................................5 2.2.3 公正性原则.....................................................................................5 2.2.4 准确性原则.....................................................................................5 2.2.5 可靠性原则.....................................................................................5 2.3 可行性研究的步骤 ...................................................................................6 2.4 可行性研究的内容 ...................................................................................7 2.4.1 项目概况.........................................................................................7 2.4.2 市场调查分析.................................................................................8 2.4.3 项目规划设计建议与进度安排.....................................................8 2.4.4 项目费用估算.................................................................................8 2.4.5 项目资金筹措.................................................................................8- ii - 2.4.6 项目财务评价.................................................................................8 2.4.7 项目风险分析.................................................................................9 2.4.8 结论与建议.....................................................................................9 第三章 地铁房地产开发 A 项目基本情况................................10 3.1 项目基本情况 .........................................................................................10 3.1.1 项目位置.......................................................................................10 3.1.2 项目地块现状...............................................................................11 3.1.3 项目周边配套情况.......................................................................11 3.2 项目初步规划条件 .................................................................................12 3.3 公司开发该项目的必要性 .....................................................................13 3.3.1 项目可观的经济收益...................................................................13 3.3.2 首个纯地铁上盖物业项目的意义...............................................13 3.4 项目投资资金来源 .................................................................................13 第四章 地铁房地产开发 A 项目市场分析................................14 4.1 天津概况及经济发展基本情况 .............................................................14 4.1.1 天津市概况...................................................................................14 4.1.2 天津经济发展的基本情况...........................................................14 4.1.3 小结...............................................................................................16 4.2 天津市房地产政策基本情况 .................................................................17 4.2.1 信贷类...........................................................................................18 4.2.2 税收类...........................................................................................18 4.2.3 土地类...........................................................................................18 4.2.4 市政类...........................................................................................19 4.2.5 宏观调控.......................................................................................19 4.2.6 政策预期.......................................................................................20 4.2.7 小结...............................................................................................20 4.3 天津市土地市场分析 .............................................................................20 4.3.1 全市土地市场供应.......................................................................21 4.3.2 全市土地市场成交.......................................................................22 4.3.3 河北区土地供需情况...................................................................23 4.3.4 小结...............................................................................................24 4.4 全市商品住宅市场分析 .........................................................................24 4.4.1 供求走势分析...............................................................................24- ii - 4.4.2 成交结构分析...............................................................................26 4.4.3 存量分析.......................................................................................28 4.4.4 小结...............................................................................................29 4.5 河北区商品住宅市场分析 .....................................................................29 4.5.1 供求走势分析...............................................................................29 4.5.2 成交结构分析...............................................................................30 4.5.3 小结...............................................................................................31 4.6 全市商业市场分析 .................................................................................31 4.6.1 供求走势分析...............................................................................31 4.6.2 成交结构分析...............................................................................32 4.6.3 小结...............................................................................................33 4.7 河北区商业市场分析 .............................................................................33 4.7.1 供求走势分析...............................................................................33 4.7.2 成交结构分析...............................................................................34 4.7.3 小结...............................................................................................34 4.8 全市写字楼产品市场分析 .....................................................................35 4.8.1 供求走势分析...............................................................................35 4.8.2 成交结构分析...............................................................................36 4.8.3 小结...............................................................................................36 4.9 河北区写字楼产品市场分析 .................................................................37 4.9.1 供求走势分析...............................................................................37 4.9.2 成交结构分析...............................................................................37 4.9.3 小结...............................................................................................37 4.10 总结 .......................................................................................................38 4.10.1 地铁对周边楼盘的影响.............................................................38 4.10.2 预计增幅.....................................................................................38 第五章 项目定位与规划建议..........................................40 5.1 项目实施范围 .........................................................................................40 5.2 项目规划指标 .........................................................................................40 5.3 项目定位 .................................................................................................41 5.4 产品定位 .................................................................................................42 5.4.1 住宅产品定位...............................................................................42 5.4.2 公寓物业定位...............................................................................42- ii - 5.4.3 办公物业定位...............................................................................43 5.4.4 商业物业定位...............................................................................44 第六章 项目财务经济评价与结论......................................45 6.1 项目工期计划安排 .................................................................................45 6.2 土地款缴纳及资金方案 .........................................................................45 6.3 项目建设融资方案 .................................................................................45 6.3.1 项目土地出让金...........................................................................45 6.3.2 项目建设资金...............................................................................46 6.4 销售定位及销售价格 .............................................................................46 6.4.1 项目优势.......................................................................................46 6.4.2 住宅产品销售价格测算...............................................................50 6.4.3 公寓产品销售价格测算...............................................................52 6.4.4 写字楼产品销售价格测算...........................................................53 6.4.5 商业产品销售价格测算...............................................................55 6.4.6 项目销售价格...............................................................................56 6.4.7 市场变化预测...............................................................................57 6.4.8 销售计划.......................................................................................57 6.5 建安成本估算 .........................................................................................57 6.5.1 建筑安装成本估算.......................................................................57 6.5.2 前期费用.......................................................................................58 6.5.3 配套费用.......................................................................................59 6.6 财务成本及税费计算标准 .....................................................................60 6.6.1 营业税及其附加...........................................................................60 6.6.2 印花税...........................................................................................60 6.6.3 城镇土地使用税...........................................................................60 6.6.4 土地增值税...................................................................................60 6.6.5 企业所得税...................................................................................60 6.6.6 维修基金.......................................................................................60 6.6.7 期间费用.......................................................................................60 6.6.8 投资利息.......................................................................................60 6.6.9 投资利息.......................................................................................61 6.7 项目盈利能力分析 .................................................................................61 6.7.1 指标定义.......................................................................................61- ii - 6.7.2 项目财务静态指标.......................................................................61 6.7.3 项目财务动态指标.......................................................................63 6.7.4 小结...............................................................................................63 6.8 风险控制分析 .........................................................................................63 6.8.1 土地摘牌风险...............................................................................63 6.8.2 大体量商业销售的风险...............................................................64 6.8.3 管理风险.......................................................................................64 6.8.4 融资风险.......................................................................................64 6.8.5 未成功获得土地开发权的风险...................................................64 6.9 结论与建议 .............................................................................................64 6.9.1 区域发展前景综述.......................................................................64 6.9.2 市场发展状况综述.......................................................................65 6.9.3 土地价值及财务利润评估综述...................................................65