本文以广州市 LW 新城房地产开发项目为研究对象，按照商业计划书的一般 要求，全面详实的分析了该项目的各方面情况。广州 LW 新城位于广佛双城核心 地带，前身为芳村高尔夫球场，临佛山水道。地块不仅区位优越，而且自然生态 条件适宜。项目占地总面积 14.9 万平方米，初步规划建筑总面积约 52.3 万平方 米，分地上住宅建筑总面积 38.8 万平方米和地下车库建筑面积 13.5 万平方米。 综合容积率约为 2.79，建筑密度 25%，绿化率为 40%。 本文运用理论与实践相结合的方法，注重对市场动态和项目优势的准确把 握。首先，分析项目本身独特的区位优势，从现阶段的实际状况和未来规划发展 两个方面，证实本项目地块卓越的升值空间和广阔的发展前景；其次，以广州整 体市场和荔湾区域市场的宏观经济环境与房地产发展环境为研究内容，着重阐述 本项目现阶段开发时点的适宜性和前瞻性；再次，结合地理位势和时间环境等因 素，设定客户目标群体和相应的规划方案，同时在项目户型配比时，充分考虑、 比较参考楼盘的销售状况和未来趋势，制定项目开发计划和销售计划；最后，根 据前文分析各方面因素状况，对项目进行投资经济效益预测分析，包括项目成本 预测和项目收益预测，另外还对项目的成本和售价分别做了敏感性分析，测算保 本价格。在完成以上项目商业计划书的核心内容后，本文就项目整体，采用 SWOT 分析矩阵，进行综合分析评定。 通过以上分析表明广州 LW 新城项目，规划设计合理，市场定位准确，未来 区域发展优势明显，长期投资价值好，投资收益高，现金流量状况良好，具有较 强的盈利能力和偿债能力，投资风险可控。因此，广州 LW 新城房地产开发项目 具有广阔前景和较好的社会、经济投资价值。 关键词：LW 新城 ；市场定位；项目投资Abstract This article takes the real estate development project of LW Metro in Guangzhou as an object, in accordance with the business plan of the general requirements, analyze every respect of the project in detail comprehensively. LW Metro is located in the core zone of new town Guangfo, formerly known as the Fangcun golf course and close to Foshan water pro. Not only superior location, but also with superior natural ecological conditions. This project covers a total area of 149000 square meters, the preliminary planning a total construction area of about 523000square meters, and it is divided to a above building covers a total area of 388000 square meters, and a underground garage covers 135000 square meters. Integrated volume rate is about 2.79, building density is 25% and green rate is 40%. This paper combined theory with practice to research the project，pay more attention to accurate grasping of market dynamics and advantage of the project. Firstly, analyze the unique location advantages of the project, proved plots of appreciation of space and broad prospects for development of the project from two respects that the current actual situation and future planning and development; secondly, take the macro economic environment and development of real estate of the whole Guangzhou market and Liwan market as research content of this project, focuses on the present development of the suitability and prospect point; then, combine geographical position, timing and environmental factors, set up customer target groups and the corresponding planning, at the same time, consider and compare sales status and future trend fully when set the apartment layout ratio, formulate development plan and marketing plan; finally, according to the analysis of various factors on the project status, analyzes investment economic benefit prediction of the project, including prediction of project cost and project revenue forecast, in addition, analyze sensitivity of the project cost and price respectively, calculated break-even price. After finishing the core content of the project business plan, this article adopts the SWOT analysis matrix to do comprehensive evaluation. Based on the Guangzhou LW metro project land condition, regional market analysis, and comprehensive analysis of project target customers, planning and design, development and sales plan and investment economic benefits index prediction, come to the conclusion that LW metro project is the only region that with natural conditions, good transportation and community support services advantages, at thesame time, the project planning and design is reasonable, with accurate market position and future regional development advantages. The project has long-term investment value, high investment income, cash flow in good condition, has strong profitability and solvency, investment risk can control. Therefore, LW Metro real estate development project has broad prospects and good social, economic and investment value. Keywords：LW Metro； Market positioning；Project investment目 录 第 1 章 导 论......................................................................................1 1.1 研究的背景和意义........................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景...............................................................................1 1.1.2 选题意义...............................................................................1 1.2 相关理论及文献综述......................................................................3 1.2.1 商业计划书............................................................................3 1.2.2 商业房地产定义 .................................................................... 4 1.2.3 经济评价方法与风险分析.........................................................5 1.3 报告研究的内容、框架及研究方法 ..................................................6 1.3.1 研究的内容及框架 ..................................................................6 1.3.2 研究方法...............................................................................7 第 2 章 广州区域房地产市场分析 ...........................................................8 2.1 广州城市宏观经济分析.................................................................26 2.1.1 广州城市经济发展现状 ........................................................26 2.1.2 广州城市发展规划...............................................................11 2.2 广州市房地产市场发展状况 ..........................................................13 2.2.1 广州市土地成交及其供应状况...............................................13 2.2.2 广州市住宅市场成交及其供应现状.........................................16 2.2.3 广 州 市 房 地 产 市 场 总 体 状 况 分 析….19 2.3 荔湾区域房地产市场分析 ...........................................................20 2.3.1 荔湾区域房地产市场供求分析...............................................20 2.3.2 荔湾区域市场楼盘分析 ........................................................21 2.3.3 荔湾区域住宅市场高层产品分析............................................23 2.3.4 荔湾区域房地产市场分析 .....................................................24 第 3 章 项目概况...............................................................................26 3.1 项目宗地位置与现状...................................................................26 3.1.1 项目宗地位置.....................................................................26 3.1.2 项目宗地现状.....................................................................26 3.2 项目大市政配套状况...................................................................27 3.2.1 交通配套状况.....................................................................28 3.2.2 社区配套状况.....................................................................29 3.3 项目规划控制要点.....................................................................30 3.3.1 规 划 A 、 B 地 块 控 制 要 点…. …..30 3.3.2 规划 D 地块控制要点............................................................303.3.3 规划 E 地块控制要点............................................................30 3.3.4 规划 F 地块控制要点............................................................31 3.3.5 规划控制要点指标汇总 ........................................................31 3.4 项目宗地情况小结......................................................................32 第 4 章 项目市场研究与初步规划设计方案...............................................8 4.1 目标客户群分析 .........................................................................34 4.1.1 区域客户分类 .......................................................................34 4.1.2 基于现状的客户定位..............................................................34 4.1.3 区域客户演变 ......................................................................35 4.2 项目市场定位 ............................................................................36 4.2.1 项目户型配比原则 ................................................................36 4.2.2 项目产品与户型配比定位.......................................................36 4.3 项目初步规划设计方案.................................................................37 第 5 章 项目开发与销售计划 ...............................................................39 5.1 项目开发计划.............................................................................39 5.1.1 开发分期计划 .......................................................................39 5.1.2 同期开工规模占有率..............................................................42 5.2.项目销售计划 ............................................................................42 5.2.1 销售分期计划 ......................................................................42 5.2.2 同期销售面积占有率.............................................................43 第 6 章 项目投资经济效益预测与分析...................................................44 6.1 收益、成本测算与分析.................................................................44 6.1.1 产品价格定位 .......................................................................44 6.1.2 项目成本测算与分析..............................................................46 6.1.3 项目收益测算与分析..............................................................47 6.2.现金流测算与投资评价指标分析 ...................................................49 6.2.1 项目现金流量表测算与分析.....................................................49 6.2.2 投资评价指标测算与分析........................................................50 6.3.项目敏感性分析 .........................................................................51 6.3.1 项目成本敏感性分析..............................................................51 6.3.2 项目售价敏感性分析..............................................................52 第 7 章 项目综合分析与思考 ...............................................................54 7.1 项目综合分析——SWOT 分析..........................................................54 7.2 广州大盘豪宅化发展思考 .............................................................56 结束语...............................................................................................57