经济全球化和区域经济一体化已成为当今世界经济发展的重要趋势。在经济 一体化不断发展的背景下，各个国家之间的经贸合作不断扩大和深化，使区域经 济得到了巨大发展。世界各国为了顺应时代的潮流，都积极加入到经济一体化的 大军中，通过与相邻国家建立自由贸易区的方式来促进本国经济的发展。中国与 俄罗斯同为“金砖国家”，在世界经济中占据重要位置，两国在地域上相邻，政 治基础牢靠，并且在资源与产业结构上具有很强比较优势和互补性，这都为中俄 两国的经贸发展奠定了坚实基础。2011 年 12 月，俄罗斯成功地加入了世界贸 易组织，结束了长达十八年之久的入世历程，为两国经济贸易活动的发展开启了 新的篇章。尽管近年来中国和俄罗斯的经贸关系得到了巨大发展，但是与两国的 政治关系、经济实力以及在国际事务中的大国地位不相符，中俄贸易额并没有在 两国的贸易总额中占据应有的份额，两国经济贸易仍有很大的上升空间。在此背 景下，本文对中俄建立自由贸易区进行了研究和分析。 本文在分析中国和俄罗斯经贸合作现状的基础上，通过收集大量的数据资料， 采用理论分析与实证分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法，从多角度 探讨了中俄建立自由贸易区的相关问题，其中对两国建立自由贸易区的影响因素 进行分析；重点论述了中俄建立自贸区的可行性，运用数据构建一元线性回归模 型对中俄建立自由贸易区的经济影响以及相关贸易指数进行分析；借鉴世界其他 主要自由贸易区的经验，对进一步深化中俄区域经济合作提出了一些政策与建议。 通过本文的研究，可以得到建立中俄自由贸易区是可行的结论。尽管中俄在 建立自贸区的过程中存在着许多制约因素，但中国和俄罗斯政府应大力支持和鼓 励，充分利用地缘、政治、资源互补等优势，从两国的共同的利益出发，积极开 展多方面、多领域的合作，加强沟通与深入了解，克服障碍，携手共进。建立中 俄自由贸易区是一个长期的、复杂的过程，合作的道路虽然是曲折的，两国经贸 发展的前景却是光明的。 关键词，中国；俄罗斯；自由贸易区；可行性Feasibility studyof China-Russia free trade area Abstract Regional economic integrationand economic globalization has become an importanttrend in nowadays world of economic development. In thebackground ofgrowingeconomic integration, trade and economic cooperationbetween countriescontinue to expandand deepen, so that the regional economyhas been a hugedevelopment. In order toconform to the trend, more and more countries have to actively join theeconomic integration, topromote theireconomic developmentthrough the establishment ofa free trade zonewithneighboringcountriesmanner. Chinaand Russiathe same as theBRIC countries, occupies an important positionin the world， countriesin theregionadjacent to thesolidpolitical foundation, and has a strongcomparative advantagesand complementaritiesin terms of resourcesand industrial structure, whichareSino-Russiantrade and economic developmenthas laid asolid foundation.December 2011, Russia has successfullyjoined theWTO, ending 18 yearsofWTO accessionprocess,the development of bilateraleconomic and trade activitiesopened anew chapter.Despite therecenteconomic and traderelations between Chinaand Russiahas been a hugedevelopment, butpolitical relationsbetween the two countries, the economic strengthandgreat power statusin international affairsdo not match, the trade volumebetween China and Russiashouldnotoccupy thetotal tradebetween the two countriessomeshare ofbilateral economic andtradeis still muchroom for growth.In this context, this paper establishes a free trade areabetween China and Russiahas been studiedand analyzed. This paper analyzes thecurrent situationof economic and tradecooperation between Chinaand Russia, based on the large amount of datacollectedbyusinga combination oftheoretical andempirical analysis, qualitative analysis andquantitative analysismethods, from many anglesto explorethe establishment ofa free trade areabetween China and Russiarelated issues, including the establishmentof bilateralfree trade areafactorswere analyzed; focuses on thefeasibility ofestablishing a free tradeareabetween China and Russia, the use of data to constructa linearregressionmodel toestablishthe economic impact ofa free trade areabetween China and Russiaas well asrelated tradeIndexfor analysis; learn from the experienceof other majorfree trade zonein the world, tofurther deepenregional economic cooperationbetween China and Russiaput forward somepolicysuggestions. Through this study, you can get it is feasibleto establisha free trade areabetween China and Russiaconcluded. Althoughthere aremany constraintsin the establishment ofSino-Russiantrade zonein the process,but theChineseand Russian governmentsshouldsupport andencourage thefull use ofgeo-politics, complementary resourcesand other advantages,startingfrom the commoninterests of both countries, and actively carry outmultifacetedcooperationin various fields, strengthen communication andunderstanding, overcome obstaclesand work together.Establishment ofa free trade areabetween China and Russiais a long, complicated process, althoughthe roadis tortuouscooperation, bilateral trade and economicdevelopmentprospectsare bright. Keywords: China，Russia，free trade zone，feasibility目录 1 绪论....................................................1 1.1 研究背景、目的与意义............................................1 1.1.1 研究背景......................................................1 1.1.2 研究目的......................................................2 1.1.3 研究意义......................................................3 1.2 国内外文献综述..................................................3 1.2.1 国外研究现状..................................................3 1.2.2 国内研究现状..................................................4 1.3 研究内容与研究方法..............................................6 1.3.1 研究内容......................................................6 1.3.2 研究方法......................................................6 1.4 报告创新之处与不足之处..........................................7 1.4.1 创新之处......................................................7 1.4.2 不足之处......................................................7 2 中俄建立自由贸易区的理论综述............................8 2.1 区域经济一体化理论..............................................8 2.1.1 自由贸易区理论................................................8 2.1.2 关税同盟理论.................................................10 2.1.3 大市场理论...................................................11 2.2 比较优势理论...................................................12 2.2.1 比较成本理论.................................................12 2.2.2 要素禀赋理论.................................................13 3 中俄经贸关系的历史和现状...............................14 3.1 中俄经贸关系发展历程...........................................14 3.2 中俄经贸关系现状...............................................15 3.2.1 两国贸易概况.................................................15 3.2.2 两国贸易商品结构分析.........................................163.2.3 两国贸易结合度分析...........................................19 3.3 俄加入 WTO 对两国经贸关系的影响.................................20 3.3.1 俄加入 WTO 给两国贸易带来的机遇...............................20 3.3.2 俄加入 WTO 给两国贸易带来的挑战...............................21 4 中俄建立自由贸易区的影响因素...........................22 4.1 中俄建立自由贸易区的有利因素...................................22 4.1.1 地缘优势.....................................................22 4.1.2 政治关系良好.................................................22 4.1.3 经贸合作广泛.................................................23 4.1.4 资源互补.....................................................24 4.2 中俄建立自由贸易区的制约因素...................................25 4.2.1 制度障碍.....................................................25 4.2.2 贸易服务体系不健全...........................................26 4.2.3 贸易规模和结构不合理.........................................26 4.2.4 文化差异.....................................................27 5 中俄建立自由贸易区可行性的实证分析.....................28 5.1 中俄贸易对中俄两国经济影响分析.................................28 5.1.1 中俄贸易对中国经济影响分析...................................29 5.1.2 中俄贸易对俄罗斯经济影响分析.................................32 5.2 中俄贸易指数分析...............................................36 5.2.1 中俄贸易比较优势分析.........................................36 5.2.2 中俄贸易互补性分析...........................................39 5.3 实证分析结论...................................................43 6 世界主要自由贸易区的经验借鉴...........................44 6.1 北美自由贸易区.................................................44 6.1.1 北美自由贸易区的形成背景.....................................44 6.1.2 北美自由贸易区的主要内容.....................................44 6.1.3 北美自由贸易区的特点.........................................456.2 中国—东盟自由贸易区...........................................46 6.2.1 中国—东盟自由贸易区的形成背景...............................46 6.2.2 中国—东盟自由贸易区的发展进程和前景.........................47 6.2.3 中国—东盟自由贸易区的主要内容...............................47 6.2.4 中国—东盟自由贸易区的意义...................................48 6.3 经验借鉴.......................................................48 7 中俄建立自由贸易区的建议...............................51 7.1 协调经贸制度，完善贸易服务体系.................................51 7.2 调整贸易结构，促进经济结构改革.................................51 7.3 推进两国互相投资...............................................52 7.4 加强文化交流和人才交流.........................................52 7.5 两国制定长期战略规划，达成建立自由贸易区的共识.................53 8结论....................................................54