“十二五”期间，煤电发展空间将明显收窄，电力行业节能减排任务将十分艰巨。 鉴此，生物质发电项目受到政府的高度重视，它不仅是缓解能源短缺的重要途径，也是 作为节能减排和增加农民收益的一项重要举措。 湛江是广东省地级市，中国首批对外开放的沿海港口城市之一，国家一类大市，是 全国著名的亚热带、热带农林业示范基地，全国四大糖蔗基地之一，全国最大的桉树、 剑麻生产基地和红树林基地，生物质燃料极为丰富。同时，该市作为连结粤、桂、琼以 及大西南的重要交通枢纽，区位优势十分显著。该市农林及农林产品加工业虽然发达， 但是由此产生的剩余物和废弃物也很多，除部分质量较好的农林木业加工剩余物用于造 纸、人造板加工和燃料外，仍有大量露天堆放在各类木材加工厂周围或遗弃田间，资源 利用率偏低，造成极大的资源浪费。部分农户在田间焚烧秸秆，还带来环境污染及火灾 隐患等问题。 WD 集团公司作为我国最大的省级发电企业，自公司组建以来，一直秉持“价值导 向，集约优化”的经营理念，以科学发展观为指导，坚持“效益、安全、环保、发展”并 重的原则，努力实现可持续发展，经营业绩稳步提升，综合实力显著增强，实现了国有 资产保值增值目标，有力保障了广东省三分之一的电力供应，企业效益在全国大型发电 企业中位居前列。但是在公司电源构成中，煤电比例明显过大，造成公司经营业绩受上 游煤炭资源供应和价格的影响较大，难以预测和控制，而且公司近年来在可再生能源发 电项目中发展步伐相对缓慢，比照国家对可再生能源配额制的硬性要求，预计 2015 年、 2020 年公司可再生能源装机容量（不含水电）需达到 174 万千瓦、391 万千瓦，未来公 司可再生能源开发的任务相当艰巨和繁重。在此形势下，WD 公司是否要投资生物质发 电项目呢？ 本正是基于此背景，以商业计划书的形式，利用从 MBA 课堂学到的分析方法， 理论结合实际，对生物质发电项目的外部实施环境、技术经济条件，可持续发展等情况 进行了探讨，详细说明生物质项目的发展前景及投资价值。同时通过分析，确定湛江作 为生物质发电项目建设地点，并在分析投资方优势及不足的基础，提出了要加强对原料 的收集及成本控制，采取有效措施防范投资风险，不可盲目启动第二期建设的意见。本 因此也具有一定的参考价值。 关键词：生物质发电；效益分析；商业计划Abstract In the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, the development space of coal-fired generation would be significantly narrowed, and the tasks of emission reduction for electricity industry would be rough. Therefore, the biomass generation projects arrest attention for they are not only the ways to release the energy shortage, but also the ways to save energy and reduce emission as well as increase the income of the farmers. Zhanjiang City, a prefecture-level city in Guangdong province, is one of the first opened coastal cities in China. It was famous as a sub-tropical and tropical agroforestry demonstration base, one of the four biggest sugarcane bases, the largest eucalyptus, sisal and mangroves base in the country. Its biomass resources are extremely rich. At the meantime, Zhanjiang City has significant geographical advantages as it connects Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan and southwestern regions. Although it has well developed forestry and agro-forestry products processing industry, a great deal of resulting residue and waste were not made full use of. Except some good quality residues are used for paper making, plywood processing and fuel, still a large amount of residues were abandoned around processing plants or fields. The low utilization of biomass resources results in great waste. The common practice of burning straw to clean the field may also lead to environmental pollution and even fire hazards. WD group is the largest provincial power generation company countrywide. Since its establishment, and guided by the scientific development concept, it remains the philosophy of value-oriented, intensive optimization, insists the principle of effectiveness, safety, environmental protection and development”. It devotes to realize the continuous development, stable performance enhance and overall strength improvement. WD group are achieving state-owned assets value increase, and ensuring one third of power supply in Guangdong province. Its performance ranks top 10 nationally. Yet as the percentage of coal is quite large in its total fuel mix, the company is suffered by the fluctuation of upstream coal supply amount and price. The fluctuation is difficult to predict and control. Besides the pace of developing renewable energy in recent years is somehow slow, comparing to the national enforced quota requirement in renewable energy, WD group must reached 1740MW, 3910MW installed capacity of renewable energy (excluding hydropower) respectively in 2015 and in 2020. This is a tough task in any aspects. Under these circumstances, should WD group invest in biomass generation projectsBased on above understanding, this thesis, as a commercial proposal, uses the theory and analysis method learned in MBA classes, discusses the external practicing environment, technical and economical conditions, as well as the continuous development of the biomass generation project, demonstrates the prospects and investment value of the biomass projects.Meanwhile, according to above analysis, Zhanjiang City is an ideal place for biomass power project construction. Concerning the analysis of investors disadvantages, this thesis explains how to improve the efficiency of biomass collection and cost control, what measures can be implemented to reduce investment risks, and concludes the project should be carried out careful investigation and feasibility research before starting any phase II construction. Thus, it therefore can be a reference for similar projects. Key words：Biomass generation; Benefit analysis; Commercial Proposal目 录 摘要 ABSTRACT 图表清单 第一章 绪论............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义.............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 研究背景.................................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 研究意义.................................................................................................................. 2 1.2 文献综述 ......................................................................................................................... 4 1.2.1 商业计划书及其撰写方面...................................................................................... 4 1.2.2 生物质发电行业的定义及分类对比...................................................................... 4 1.3 研究的内容及方法 ................................................................................................. 5 1.3.1 研究的内容和框架.......................................................................................... 5 1.3.2 研究思路与方法.............................................................................................. 6 第二章 项目概况....................................................................................................................8 2.1 项目背景 ......................................................................................................................... 8 2.2 项目来源 ......................................................................................................................... 9 2.3 项目规模 ......................................................................................................................... 9 2.4 项目技术及运营模式 ..................................................................................................... 9 2.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 10 第三章 项目实施环境与基础.............................................................................................. 11 3.1 外部环境分析 ............................................................................................................... 11 3.1.1 政策环境分析........................................................................................................ 11 3.1.2 经济因素分析........................................................................................................ 12 3.1.3 社会环境分析........................................................................................................ 14 3.1.4 行业技术分析........................................................................................................ 15 3.2 项目的市场分析 ........................................................................................................... 16 3.2.1 项目市场的供需情况分析.................................................................................... 16 3.2.2 项目市场的发展分析............................................................................................ 173.2.3 项目五力分析模型................................................................................................ 19 3.3 内部环境分析................................................................................................................ 19 3.3.1 项目实施基础........................................................................................................ 19 3.3.2 项目实施方的优势................................................................................................ 20 3.3.3 项目实施方的劣势................................................................................................ 22 3.4 项目目标与定位 ........................................................................................................... 22 3.4.1 发展策略................................................................................................................. 22 3.4.2 发展目标................................................................................................................. 23 3.4.3 发展定位................................................................................................................. 23 3.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 23 第四章 项目主设备及原料筹集..........................................................................................25 4.1 主设备方案 ................................................................................................................... 25 4.2 热力系统 ....................................................................................................................... 25 4.3 燃烧系统 ....................................................................................................................... 26 4.4 电气部分 ....................................................................................................................... 26 4.5 主厂房布局 ................................................................................................................... 26 4.6 消防 ............................................................................................................................... 27 4.7 原料供应 ....................................................................................................................... 27 4.8 原料资源量及可供应量 ............................................................................................... 28 4.8.1 蔗叶、蔗尾梢........................................................................................................ 28 4.8.2 蔗渣......................................................................................................................... 28 4.8.3 果木枝条及水稻、玉米秸秆................................................................................ 29 4.8.4 桉树废弃物............................................................................................................. 29 4.8.5 木材加工废弃物.................................................................................................... 29 4.8.6 湛江周边地区可用生物质原料............................................................................ 30 4.9 原料的收集、储存及运输措施 ................................................................................... 31 4.9.1 收集........................................................................................................................ 31 4.9.2 储存......................................................................................................................... 32 4.9.3 破碎........................................................................................................................ 32 4.9.4 运输........................................................................................................................ 334.10 原料收集成本 ............................................................................................................. 33 4.11 本章小结 ..................................................................................................................... 33 第五章 项目组织定员及环境保护措施..............................................................................35 5.1 组织框架与人力资源 ................................................................................................... 35 5.1.1 公司性质................................................................................................................. 35 5.1.2 公司组织结构......................................................................................................... 35 5.2.定员汇总表.................................................................................................................... 36 5.3 环境保护 ....................................................................................................................... 36 5.3.1 大气污染防治措施................................................................................................ 36 5.3.2 废污水治理措施.................................................................................................... 36 5.3.3 噪声防治措施........................................................................................................ 37 5.3.4 灰渣治理措施........................................................................................................ 37 5.3.5 水土保持................................................................................................................ 37 5.3.6 绿化措施................................................................................................................ 37 5.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 37 第六章 项目投资估算与效益分析......................................................................................39 6.1 投资估算 ....................................................................................................................... 39 6.1.1 主要设备价格........................................................................................................ 39 6.1.2 主要估算依据........................................................................................................ 39 6.1.3 基本预备费............................................................................................................ 40 6.1.4 投资估算情况........................................................................................................ 40 6.2 经济评价 ....................................................................................................................... 41 6.2.1 资金来源................................................................................................................. 41 6.2.2 投资计划................................................................................................................ 41 6.2.3 基本数据................................................................................................................ 41 6.3 经济效益分析 ............................................................................................................... 42 6.3.1 成本计算................................................................................................................ 42 6.3.2 损益计算................................................................................................................ 42 6.3.3 贷款偿还................................................................................................................ 42 6.3.4 现金流量测算........................................................................................................ 426.3.5 电价分析................................................................................................................ 42 6.4 敏感性分析 ................................................................................................................... 42 6.4.1 发电设备年利用小时数敏感性分析.................................................................... 43 6.4.2 原料价格敏感性分析............................................................................................ 43 6.4.3 总投资敏感性分析................................................................................................ 43 6.4.4 上网电价敏感性分析............................................................................................ 43 6.4.5 财务评价................................................................................................................ 44 6.5 社会效益分析................................................................................................................ 44 6.5.1 实现可持续发展，促进能源结构调整................................................................ 44 6.5.2 有效缓和环境保护压力........................................................................................ 45 6.5.3 有利于建设节约型社会........................................................................................ 45 6.5.4 有利于促进新农村的建设.................................................................................... 45 6.6 项目实施进度与安排 ................................................................................................... 46 6.7 项目招标管理 ............................................................................................................... 46 6.7.1 招标依据................................................................................................................ 46 6.7.2 招标方案................................................................................................................. 47 6.8 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 47 第七章 项目风险分析与防范..............................................................................................48 7.1 风险概念........................................................................................................................ 48 7.2 风险分类 ....................................................................................................................... 48 7.2.1 政策风险................................................................................................................ 48 7.2.2 经济风险................................................................................................................ 48 7.2.3 技术风险................................................................................................................ 49 7.2.4 原料风险................................................................................................................ 49 7.3 应对策略 ....................................................................................................................... 49 7.3.1 预防风险................................................................................................................ 49 7.3.2 技术创新................................................................................................................. 50 7.3.3.原料管理................................................................................................................. 50 7.3.4.湛江生物质项目风险及应对................................................................................. 50 7.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 51结 论......................................................................................................................................52