旅游开发是一项综合性的社会和技术经济活动。近年来，随着旅游业的快速 发展，游客的需求在不断变化升级，旅游行业间的竞争也在不断加剧，因此，旅 游开发投资项目的可行性分析已成为旅游项目投资前需要研究的重要课题。有鉴 于此，本文提出了旅游开发项目必须进行可行性论证的观点，并从旅游项目投资 者的角度出发，根据现代项目管理项目论证与评估的基本原理，遵循项目论证与 评估的一般过程，结合旅游开发投资项目的特点及具体情况，详细阐述了旅游开 发项目进行投资环境、市场预测和投资经济分析的理论，通过一系列的论证以确 定旅游开发项目是否可行。 文章的前两个部分从介绍了研究背景入手，重点阐述了撰写本文涉及的基本 概念、相关基础理论和可行性研究的内涵，分析了我国旅游开发的一般流程，阐 述了进行可行性研究的重要现实意义。在阐述中重点吸取国内外同类研究的先进 思想和方法，结合我国旅游开发项目的现状，提出了旅游开发可行性研究的理论 基础，探讨了旅游开发可行性研究的主要内容，总结了旅游开发项目可行性研究 不同于一般工业项目可行性研究的特殊性和侧重点，归纳出旅游开发可行性研究 的内容。 最后，文章以攀枝花 ASD 旅游开发项目这一具体的旅游投资项目为典型案例 作为研究对象，运用投资项目的可行性分析理论，通过进行本项目投资环境分析、 财务分析和构建风险评价体系，对本投资项目进行科学决策和定位。在实证研究 中，主要利用市场学和市场营销学的有关理论，根据旅游投资项目特点，综合运 用了国内外较为先进、成熟和科学的项目管理、开发项目可行性研究的理论和方 法，对拟投资的旅游开发项目从宏观环境、区域环境的动态发展，到旅游市场预 测、项目的定位、风险评价、财务评价和完善措施等相关问题进行了分析论证， 同时，在分析论证中注重从竞争性、风险性、优化性三个方面论证项目的可行性。 通过分析论证，攀枝花 ASD 旅游开发项目的市场具有较好的成长性，在本项目的 周期内适合于项目投资，其潜在市场巨大，具有投资建设的必要性。在财务评价 中，项目具有良好的盈利能力和较好的财务抗风险能力，投资商在合适的时机， 准确定位的前提下，能从该项目中获得理想的利润，具有一定的社会效益。 关键词，旅游开发，项目，可行性II Abstract Tourism development is a comprehensive social and technical economic activity. Recent years, with the rapid development of tourism industry, the tourists’ needs are constantly changing and upgrading, and the competition among the tourism industry is growing. Therefore, a feasibility analysis on the tourism development project has become an important and required research subject before the relative investment starts. For this, this paper presents the point of view that the project feasibility studies of tourism development projects have to be carried out. From the perspective of the investors in tourism projects, according to the basic principles of project demonstration and evaluation in the modern project management, following the general process of the project demonstration and evaluation, and combining the characteristics and the specific situation of the investment projects in tourism development, it elaborates the theory of the project investment environment, economic analysis and environmental assessment in tourism development, and a series of demonstrations are accomplished in order to determine the feasibility of tourism development projects. The fist two parts of the thesis describe the research background, the basic concepts, the related theories and the connotation of feasibility studies. It also analyzes the general process of China’s tourism development, and elaborates the practical importance of feasibility studies. Then, by adopting advanced ideas and methods of similar studies at home and abroad and combining with the status quo of China’s tourism development projects, the thesis presents the theoretical basis and the main content for the feasibility study on tourism development, summarizes the different specificities and focuses of the feasibility study between tourism development projects and general industrial projects, and concludes the contents of the feasibility study on tourism development. The last part of the thesis takes ASD tourism development project in Panzhihua, a tourism investment project, as a typical case to study. By using the theory of feasibility analysis and making the investment environment analysis, financial analysis and risk evaluation system of the project, the thesis carries out scientific decision-making andIII positioning for the investment project. In the empirical study, the thesis makes analysis and appraisal of the proposed investment in tourism development project by utilizing relevant theories of market and marketing and applying the theories and methods of advanced and scientific project management and development project feasibility studies at home and abroad, including macro-environment, dynamic development of regional environment, tourism market forecast, project positioning, risk assessment, financial evaluation and improvement measures. Three aspects — competitiveness, risks, optimization, are specially expounded to demonstrate the feasibility of the project. The analysis results show that the market of ASD tourism development project in Panzhihua has good growth potential. During the project cycle, it’s suitable for project investment, and has a huge potential market and a necessity for investment and construction. In the financial evaluation, the project shows good profitability and good financial ability to resist risks. Investors can gain good profits from the project by investing at the right time and positioning accurately, which will bring some social benefits. Keywords: Tourism Development, Project, FeasibilityIV 目 录 第一章 绪论.................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景与实践意义.............................................................................................................1 1.2 国内外研究综述.....................................................................................................................2 1.2.1 国外的研究综述........................................................................................................2 1.2.2 国内的研究现状........................................................................................................3 1.3 本报告的研究思路、方法和主要内容................................................................................4 1.3.1 本报告的研究思路....................................................................................................4 1.3.2 本报告研究的主要内容............................................................................................5 1.3.3 报告的研究方法........................................................................................................5 1.4 报告创新之处.........................................................................................................................5 第二章 相关理论基础.................................................................................................. 7 2.1 基本概念界定.........................................................................................................................7 2.1.1 项目可行性研究........................................................................................................7 2.1.2 旅游开发....................................................................................................................8 2.1.3 旅游开发项目可行性研究的特点及主要内容........................................................9 2.2 旅游市场分析与预测理论...................................................................................................11 2.2.1 宏观总量比例预测理论..........................................................................................11 2.2.2 目标市场调查分析理论..........................................................................................12 2.3 旅游开发项目风险分析理论与方法..................................................................................12 2.4 旅游开发项目财务评价理论..............................................................................................13 2.4.1 财务评价指标..........................................................................................................14 2.4.2 不确定性分析..........................................................................................................14 2.5 本章小结 ..............................................................................................................................15 第三章 攀枝花 ASD 旅游开发项目投资环境分析和市场预测.............................. 16 3.1 项目投资环境分析...............................................................................................................16 3.1.1 项目宏观环境分析..................................................................................................16 3.1.2 项目背景分析..........................................................................................................19 3.2 项目市场预测.......................................................................................................................21 3.2.1 客源市场现状分析..................................................................................................21 3.2.2 项目客源市场定位..................................................................................................26 3.2.3 游客规模预测..........................................................................................................28 3.3 本章小结 ..............................................................................................................................30 第四章 攀枝花 ASD 旅游开发项目投资风险分析和财务评价.............................. 32 4.1 基于投资风险分析的项目开发综合评价...........................................................................32 4.1.1 评价要素指标体系的设置......................................................................................32 4.1.2 评语集合的确定......................................................................................................33 4.1.3 评价要素权重子集的确定......................................................................................33 4.1.4 评判的实施..............................................................................................................34 4.1.5 评价实例计算..........................................................................................................35V 4.2 财务经济分析......................................................................................................................36 4.2.1 收入及费用估算......................................................................................................36 4.2.2 资金筹措..................................................................................................................38 4.2.3 财务评价.................................................................................................................38 4.2.4 不确定性分析..........................................................................................................40 4.3 本章小结 ..............................................................................................................................41 第五章 攀枝花 ASD 旅游开发项目投资的风险分析及对策.................................. 42 5.1 风险识别与风险初步估计...................................................................................................42 5.1.1 项目环境风险..........................................................................................................42 5.1.2 项目核心风险..........................................................................................................43 5.2 建立风险应对对策...............................................................................................................44 5.2.1 项目行业风险的防范对策......................................................................................44 5.2.2 项目产业政策风险的防范对策..............................................................................44 5.2.3 项目市场风险防范对策..........................................................................................44 5.3 加强风险管理技术和方法的运用.......................................................................................45 5.4 本章小结 ..............................................................................................................................45 结 论........................................................................................................................ 46 致谢............................................................................................................................ 47