某市商务航空固定运营基地项目是一个结合商务航空公司基地建设与运营的综合 性项目。项目特别之处在于其不同于一般的民航机场建设项目，也不同于一般的航空公 司运营项目，它既包含了建设期的投资，也包含经营期的现金流估算。根据项目整体进 度计划，项目拟分两个阶段实施，第一阶段为项目建设期，借助现有资源的优势，在已 有土地使用权的前提下，完成商务航空固定运营基地的建筑工程建设、设备购置及装配， 为商务航空固定运营基地的经营做好硬件和软件准备；第二阶段为项目投产运营期。因 民航机场投资与营运的综合性和不确定性，如何科学地对此项目进行投资评价，分析影 响项目投资的敏感因素，制定风险对策，为项目决策提供支持，正是本文需要解决的问 题。 本文首先对商务航空的定义及特点进行阐述，同时对商务航空及运营基地项目行业 环境和项目情况进行研究对比分析；通过阐述和分析商务航空固定运营基地项目的整体 方案，明确项目的定位与规划，其中包括商务航空固定运营基地项目的建设及运营方案； 并且通过资料查找、文献检索，搜集财务评价需要的数据和依据；利用各项数据和依据 估测项目建设期和运营期的现金流；然后据此计算项目净现值（NPV)、内部收益率(IRR)、 投资回收期(T)；接着，考虑影响项目财务评价指标的因素，运用单因素敏感性分析法找 出敏感性因素，结合这些因素的变动性，运用多因素敏感性分析法识别风险的影响程度； 最后，针对各个风险因素进行分析并制定风险对策，最终得到项目投资在财务上是否可 行性的判断。 作者通过统一评价指标、收入科目、计算收入问题及项目编制规则；估测项目现金 流，运用现金流直接法对现金流进行财务评价，经计算，项目净现值（NPV）为9556.94 万元，远大于0；内部收益率（IRR）为10.82%，大于项目财务基准收益率8%；投资回 收期（T）=16.5<行业基准回收期18年。并且对项目进行风险分析，利用选取影响商务 航空固定运营基地项目财务评价指标的基本变量-项目净现值（NPV），运用单因素敏感 性分析方法，识别出敏感因素为，广告业务、飞机租赁业务和项目建设期初始投资额， 其敏感系数分别为0.73、3.33和2.64。然后根据三个敏感因素各自可能变化的范围，运用 多因素敏感性分析方法，分析结果得出，项目建设期初始投资额、飞机租赁业务和广告 业务同时出现极端情况时，商务航空固定运营基地项目的净现值最优值是22874万元， 最差值是7669万元，净现值大于0的情况占全部分析结果的100 %，商务航空固定运营基II 地项目在大多数情况下是创造价值的。 商务航空固定运营基地项目财务评价的结果反映项目具有不错的经济效益，满足财 务评价的要求，值得投资。 关键词，商务航空；固定运营基地；财务可行性III Abstract Business aviation fixed base of operations in a city project is a combination of a business airline bases and integrated operation of the project. Special projects in its different from the general aviation airport construction projects, but also from the general project airlines, both contain investment construction period, but also includes cash flow from operations of estimates. According to the overall project schedule, project plans implemented in two phases: the first phase of the project construction period, with the advantage of existing resources, existing land use rights under the premise of the completion of the Fixed Base Operator building construction, equipment purchase and assembly for Fixed Base Operator business to do hardware and software preparation; the second stage of the project put into operation. And due to the uncertainty and integrity of investment and operation in the civil aviation airport, how scientifically this investment project evaluation, analysis of sensitive factors affecting the project investment, develop risk measures to provide support for project decision-making, is the need to address the problem of this article. Firstly, the definition and characteristics of business aviation elaborate, while the commercial aviation industry and operations base project environment and projects to study comparative analysis; description and analysis of the overall program by Fixed Base Operator projects, clear positioning and planning projects, including Fixed Base Operator The project construction and operation programs; and by information search, literature search, data collection and evaluation on the basis of financial need; the use of the data and in accordance with cash flow estimates the project construction period and operation period; and accordingly the net present value calculation of the project (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), payback period (T); Next, consider the factors that influence project financial evaluation, the use of single-factor sensitivity analysis to identify susceptibility factors, combined with the variability of these factors, the use of impact multivariate sensitivity analysis to identify risks; Finally, for each risk factors and development of risk countermeasures, finally get judged on whether investment in financial viability. On the unified index, income account, and the preparation of the rules of computing income problem projects; estimates of project cash flow, cash flow using the direct method forcash flow financial evaluation, was calculated to project net present value (NPV) of 95,5694，00yuan, far greater than 0; internal rate of return (IRR) of 10.82%, higher than the project financial benchmark rate of return of 8%; payback period (T) = 16.5 <industry benchmark payback period of 18 years. And project risk analysis, the use of selected variablesIV affect the basic Fixed Base Operator financial evaluation of the project - Project net present value (NPV), using univariate sensitivity analysis methods to identify sensitive factors: advertising business, aircraft leasing and project construction Initial investment, its sensitivity coefficients were 0.73,3.33 and 2.64. Then depending on the scope of each of the three sensitive factors may change, the use of multivariate sensitivity analysis method to analyze the results obtained, the project construction period initial investment, the aircraft leasing business and advertising business appears while an extreme case, the project NPV Fixed Base Operator the optimal value is 228.74 million yuan, 76.69 million yuan worst value is the case NPV greater than 0 100% of all analytical results, Fixed Base Operator project in most cases is to create value. Fixed Base Operator project financial evaluation results reflect the project has good economic benefits, to meet the requirements of the financial evaluation, it is worth the investment. Keywords: Business Aviation; Fixed Base Operations; Financial EvaluationV 目录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................. III 图表清单............................................................................................................................... VIII 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义.............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 文献综述.......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 项目财务可行性研究现状....................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 民用机场建设财务可行性研究及商务航空固定运营基地运营的现状............... 4 1.3 研究方法与内容.............................................................................................................. 7 1.3.1 研究方法................................................................................................................... 7 1.3.2 研究内容................................................................................................................... 7 第二章 商务航空的特点及市场研究......................................................................................9 2.1 商务航空及其特点.......................................................................................................... 9 2.1.1 商务航空定义........................................................................................................... 9 2.1.2 商务航空特点......................................................................................................... 11 2.2 商务航空市场现状及发展............................................................................................ 11 2.2.1 世界商务航空市场现状及发展............................................................................. 11 2.2.2 中国商务航空市场现状及发展............................................................................. 14 2.2.3 中国商务航空与世界商务航空发展对比分析..................................................... 17 2.3 中国商务航空市场评价................................................................................................ 17 2.4 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 18 第三章 商务航空固定运营基地项目方案............................................................................19 3.1 商务航空固定运营基地项目整体方案研究................................................................ 19 3.1.1 建设单位的选定..................................................................................................... 19 3.1.2 项目经营范围的确定............................................................................................. 20 3.1.3 需求确定建设规模................................................................................................. 20 3.1.4 环境保护评估......................................................................................................... 21 3.2 商务航空固定运营基地项目建设方案........................................................................ 21VI 3.2.1 建设方案的确定..................................................................................................... 21 3.2.2 总平面布置规划设计............................................................................................. 22 3.2.3 飞行区场道工程设计方案..................................................................................... 24 3.2.4 配套设施及交通建设方案..................................................................................... 25 3.2.5 商务航空固定运营基地基地中、远期发展规划研究......................................... 25 3.3 同行业运营方案对比分析与方案设计........................................................................ 25 3.3.1 同行业运营方案对比分析..................................................................................... 26 3.3.2 商务航空固定运营基地项目运营方案设计......................................................... 26 3.4 商务航空固定运营基地项目管理特点........................................................................ 28 3.4.1 5D BIM 系统的选定 ............................................................................................... 29 3.4.2 基于 BIM 技术应用的商务航空固定运营基地项目全过程总控管理 .............. 29 3.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 31 第四章 商务航空固定运营基地项目的现金流估测及评价指标计算................................32 4.1 商务航空固定运营基地项目建设期现金流估测........................................................ 32 4.1.1 建设期现金流估测依据......................................................................................... 32 4.1.2 建设期现金流估测范围......................................................................................... 32 4.1.3 建设期总投资及资金来源..................................................................................... 32 4.1.4 建设期现金流估测................................................................................................. 40 4.2 商务航空固定运营基地项目运营期现金流估测........................................................ 41 4.2.1 商务航空固定运营基地项目运营期现金流估测的依据和原则......................... 41 4.2.2 商务航空固定运营基地项目运营期现金流估测基础数据................................. 42 4.2.3 运营期现金流估测............................................................................................... 572 4.3 商务航空固定运营基地项目折现率的确定................................................................ 68 4.4 商务航空固定运营基地项目评价指标计算................................................................ 69 4.4.1 关于财务评价周期的说明..................................................................................... 69 4.4.2 商务航空固定运营基地项目净现值计算............................................................. 69 4.4.3 商务航空固定运营基地项目内部报酬率计算..................................................... 72 4.4.4 商务航空固定运营基地项目投资回收期计算..................................................... 73 4.4.5 商务航空固定运营基地项目评价指标的判断..................................................... 75 4.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 75VII 第五章 影响财务评价指标的风险因素与对策研究............................................................76 5.1 财务评价指标的敏感因素判别.................................................................................... 76 5.2 敏感因素造成财务评价指标的变化范围.................................................................... 77 5.2.1 敏感因素的变化范围............................................................................................. 77 5.2.2 财务评价指标的变化范围..................................................................................... 78 5.3 敏感因素变化的风险与对策........................................................................................ 79 5.3.1 针对项目初始投资额变化的风险分析及对策..................................................... 79 5.3.2 针对广告业务的风险分析及对策......................................................................... 80 5.3.3 针对飞机租赁业务变化的风险分析及对策......................................................... 80 5.4 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 81 结 论........................................................................................................................................82