在房地产新政和宏观经济的双重作用下，房地产行业正面临着新的挑战，深圳的房 地产市场同样如此。构建一个属于房地产企业学习、交流的培训平台，助推行业健康有 序的发展正当其时。本文以创立“S 公司房地产培训项目”为出发点，以商业计划书的 形式为框架，以房地产行业的核心痛点为项目创办基础，综合运用营销管理、人力 资源管理、运营管理、财务管理等学科的理论知识进行分析论证，发现该项目不仅可以 做，而且具有较高的投资价值。 文章首先对项目研究的背景及意义进行了阐述，对研究方法及研究路线做了说明， 对公司项目及融资需求做了介绍，并初步确定了未来公司的股权结构。其次采用了 PEST 模型对行业的宏观环境做了分析；用波特五力模型对行业的竞争格局做了论述；用 SWOT 分析法、STP 理论、4Ps 定位理论等对市场营销策略做了阐述；利用商业模式画 布分析该项目的商业模式关键要素，梳理出了清晰的商业模式。最后，本文对公司的组 织架构、部门职能、运营管理、人力资源管理等做了清晰的规划安排。 在系统分析论证该项目的公司治理结构、运营管理、市场营销等的基础上对项目的 融资需求及前期投资规划做了详细说明；借助市场分析的成果对公司营业收入及营业成 本做了合理的测算，并测算生成了公司的资产负债表、利润表及现金流量表；在市场预 测的基础上利用财务数据进一步进行投资收益测算，得出项目的净现值（NPV）为 395.57 万元、投资回收期（DPP）为 2.37 年、内部收益率（IRR）为 49.13%；对 S 公司投资项 目的退出方式及渠道做了分析说明，给了投资者一个合理的投资预期。 本项目遵循财务谨慎原则，对项目可能存在风险进行了定量分析，通过单因素敏感 性分析确定了四个敏感性因素，分别是课程价格、课程销量、讲师课酬及初始投资额。 然后运用多因素敏感性分析的方法对敏感性因素可能会引起的经济效益（NPV）波动幅 度进行了综合分析，在计算出的 81 组 NPV 数值中，正值占 84%，负值占 16%，充分分 析了可能会出现的关键风险点，并对风险控制提出了明确的应对措施。 总之，本文通过对商业计划的研究分析，为投资人和股东正确把握投资机会，慎重 做出投资决策提供了详实的数据支撑。 关键词，商业计划书；房地产培训；财务分析；风险管理II Abstract Under the dual effects of the new real estate policy and the macro-economy, the real estate industry is facing new challenges, so are the real estate enterprises in shenzhen. It is the right time to build a training platform for real estate enterprises to learn and communicate , and to promote the healthy and orderly development of the industry. This paper is started by a “real estate training project of S company which was based on the core pain points of the real estate industry, the project used the form of a business plan as thesis framework, analyzed and demonstrated that such project is of high investment value by comprehensive application of theoretical knoledge of multiple disciplines including marketing, human resources, operation and financial management. This paper first expounds the background and significance of the project research, explains the research method and research route, introduces the project and financing needs of the company, and preliminarily determines the ownership structure of the company in the future. Secondly, PEST model is adopted to analyze the macro environment of the industry. The competition pattern of the industry is discussed with porter's five forces model. SWOT analysis, STP theory and 4Ps positioning theory are used to expound the marketing strategy. By using the business model canvas to analyze the key elements of the project's business model, the clear business model is sorted out. Finally, this paper makes clear planning and arrangement for the company's organizational structure, department functions, operation management and human resource management. On the basis of systematic analysis and demonstration of the project's corporate governance structure, operation management, marketing, etc., the financing needs and pre-investment planning of the project are described in detail; With the help of the results of market analysis, the company's operating income and operating cost are reasonably calculated, the balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement of the company are also generated. On the basis of the market forecast and the use of financial data to further calculate the investment income, the net present value (NPV) of the project is 3.9557 million yuan, the payback period (DPP) is 2.37 years, and the internal rate of return is 49.13%, which preliminarily proof that the project has a high investment value. This project follows the principle of financial prudence, conducts a quantitative analysis on the possible risks of the project, and determines four sensitivity factors through single-factor sensitivity analysis, which are course price, course sales volume, lecturer's remuneration and initial investment. Then use the method of multi-factor sensitivity analysisIII to sensitivity factors may cause the economic benefits (NPV) of volatility has carried on the comprehensive analysis, in 81 set of NPV numerical calculate, at 84%, negative 16%, fully analyzed the may appear the key risk points, and puts forward the specific measures for risk control. All in all, this paper provides detailed data support for investors and shareholders to correctly grasp investment opportunities and make investment decisions by studying and analyzing business plans. Key word: Business plan; Real estate training; Financial analysis; Risk management.IV 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... II 图表清单...............................................................................................................................VIII 第一章 绪 论............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 文献综述 ......................................................................................................................... 4 1.2.1 商业计划书............................................................................................................... 4 1.2.2 企业管理培训........................................................................................................... 4 1.2.3 企业竞争战略理论................................................................................................... 6 1.2.4 市场营销理论........................................................................................................... 6 1.2.5 财务分析及风险管理................................................................................................ 7 1.2.6 房地产行业及宏观经济分析................................................................................... 8 1.3 研究内容及方法 ............................................................................................................. 9 1.3.1 研究内容................................................................................................................... 9 1.3.2 研究方法................................................................................................................. 10 1.4 本文技术路线及结构 ........................................................................................... 11 1.4.1 本文技术路线......................................................................................................... 11 1.4.2 结构................................................................................................................. 11 第二章 S 公司房地产培训项目介绍.....................................................................................13 2.1 S 公司简介 ..................................................................................................................... 13 2.2 S 公司现有股东介绍 ..................................................................................................... 14 2.3 S 公司课程体系介绍 ..................................................................................................... 14 2.3.1 房地产企业存在的问题分析.................................................................................. 14 2.3.2 S 公司培训产品介绍............................................................................................... 15 2.4 S 公司发展目标及办学理念 ......................................................................................... 16 2.4.1 S 公司发展目标....................................................................................................... 16 2.4.2 S 公司办学理念....................................................................................................... 17 2.5 S 公司商业模式设计 ..................................................................................................... 18V 2.5.1 S 公司的商业模式................................................................................................... 18 2.5.2 S 公司商业模式画布............................................................................................... 19 2.6 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 20 第三章 企业培训行业环境分析............................................................................................21 3.1 企业培训行业发展趋势及需求分析 ........................................................................... 21 3.1.1 企业培训行业发展趋势......................................................................................... 21 3.1.2 深圳房企培训需求分析......................................................................................... 22 3.2 宏观环境分析 ............................................................................................................... 25 3.2.1 政治环境分析......................................................................................................... 25 3.2.2 经济环境分析......................................................................................................... 26 3.2.3 社会环境分析.......................................................................................................... 27 3.2.4 技术环境分析......................................................................................................... 28 3.3 S 公司竞争环境分析 ..................................................................................................... 28 3.3.1 S 公司供应商议价能力........................................................................................... 29 3.3.2 S 公司面临的进入者威胁....................................................................................... 29 3.3.3 S 公司客户议价能力............................................................................................... 30 3.3.4 S 公司面临的替代品威胁....................................................................................... 30 3.3.5 S 公司竞争对手分析............................................................................................... 30 3.4 S 公司 SWOT 矩阵分析................................................................................................ 31 3.5 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 33 第四章 S 公司组织架构及运营管理体系.............................................................................34 4.1 S 公司组织设计 ............................................................................................................. 34 4.1.1 S 公司组织架构....................................................................................................... 34 4.1.2 S 公司部门职能介绍............................................................................................... 34 4.1.3 S 公司人力资源配置............................................................................................... 36 4.2 S 公司运营管理 ............................................................................................................. 37 4.2.1 S 公司招聘体系建设............................................................................................... 37 4.2.2 S 公司培训体系建设............................................................................................... 38 4.2.3 S 公司业务考核与激励体系................................................................................... 38 4.2.4 S 公司客户资源管理体系....................................................................................... 39VI 4.2.5 S 公司讲师资源库建设........................................................................................... 39 4.3 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 40 第五章 S 公司市场营销策略.................................................................................................41 5.1 S 公司的 STP 战略和营销组合 .................................................................................... 42 5.1.1 S 公司市场细分....................................................................................................... 42 5.1.2 S 公司目标市场选择............................................................................................... 44 5.1.3 S 公司市场定位....................................................................................................... 44 5.2 S 公司营销组合策略 ..................................................................................................... 44 5.2.1 S 公司产品策略....................................................................................................... 44 5.2.2 S 公司价格策略....................................................................................................... 48 5.2.3 S 公司渠道策略....................................................................................................... 51 5.2.4 S 公司促销策略....................................................................................................... 53 5.3 文章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 55 第六章 S 公司投资收益分析.................................................................................................56 6.1 S 公司股权结构和融资需求 ......................................................................................... 56 6.1.1 S 公司股权结构....................................................................................................... 56 6.1.2 S 公司投资估算....................................................................................................... 56 6.2 S 公司财务数据预测 ..................................................................................................... 57 6.2.1 S 公司财务预测的假设........................................................................................... 57 6.2.2 S 公司项目收入预测............................................................................................... 57 6.2.3 S 公司项目支出预测............................................................................................... 60 6.2.4 S 公司管理费用支出预测....................................................................................... 61 6.3 S 公司财务报表预测 ..................................................................................................... 63 6.3.1 S 公司资产负债表................................................................................................... 64 6.3.2 S 公司利润表........................................................................................................... 65 6.3.3 S 公司现金流量表................................................................................................... 65 6.4 S 公司财务指标分析 ..................................................................................................... 66 6.4.1 S 公司资本成本的确定........................................................................................... 66 6.4.2 S 公司净现值分析................................................................................................... 66 6.4.3 S 公司投资回收期测算........................................................................................... 67VII 6.4.4 S 公司内部收益率测算........................................................................................... 67 6.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 68 第七章 S 公司投资风险管理.................................................................................................69 7.1 敏感性分析 ................................................................................................................... 69 7.1.1 单因素敏感性分析................................................................................................. 69 7.1.2 多因素敏感性分析................................................................................................. 70 7.2 S 公司项目退出方式 ..................................................................................................... 71 7.3 S 公司运营风险管理 ..................................................................................................... 72 7.3.1 S 公司运营风险分析............................................................................................... 72 7.3.2 S 公司运营风险应对............................................................................................... 73 7.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 73 结论与展望..............................................................................................................................75