在房价快速上涨的年代，普通百姓对低收入住房的要求越来越高。低收入住房的 建设是关系到千家万户的安居乐业，也影响了社会的稳定。低收入住房的建设受到政 府部门关注，项目的成功在很大程度上取决于政府部门的前期策划研究。低收入住房 作为一个新生事物，一般政府部门缺乏成熟的操作经验。 房地产投资分析是房地产项目投资开发前进行分析的过程，其核心问题是研究投 资项目的可行性，选择最佳投资方案。分析的关键是投资回报，可获得最佳的经济效 益，社会效益和环境效益和平衡。只有对投资项目进行详细，可靠的市场预测，成本 效益分析计算，为提高投资决策的基础上合理的科学基础。可以说，房地产开发项目 的成功，在很大程度上取决于可行性研究的深度和准确度。 可行性研究是分析，计算和评价投资项目的技术方案，开发计划，计划经济的影 响，研究的必要性和可行性的方案选择和发展，投资方案决策中的科学分析方法。本 文以增城市某保障性房地产项目为研究对象，以社会保障房相关理论为基础，通过对 该地区的经济发展状况和房地产业发展趋势的研究，依靠财务分析，得出了该保障房 项目是可行的结论。 关键词，保障房；可行性分析；财务评价II Abstract In the rapidly rising prices in the 1980s, the ordinary people of the increasingly high demand for low-income housing. Low-income housing construction is related to thousands of households live and work in peace and contentment, also affected the social stability. Low-income housing construction subject to government departments, the success of the project depends to a great extent the government departments in the early stage of planning research. Low-income housing as a new thing, the general government sector the lack of mature operation experience. The investment analysis of the real estate is the real estate investment and development projects conducted before the analysis process, its core problem is to study the feasibility of investment project and choose the best investment scheme. Is the key to the analysis of investment return, which can obtain the best economic benefit, social benefit and environmental benefit and balance. Only to investing a project to undertake detailed, reliable market forecast, analysis of cost and benefit calculation, in order to make the investment decision based on reasonable and scientific basis. Can be said that the real estate development project is successful, to a large extent depends on the feasibility study of success. A feasibility study is analysis, calculation and evaluation of investment project technical plan, development plan, operating plan economic effect, studies the feasibility and necessity of the development, the scheme selection and decision of the investment scheme scientific analysis method. As a case study, this paper from the marketing, investment, finance and other disciplines perspective, combined with the actual real estate project, the industry is mainly depended on the experience of perceptual analysis method for theoretical refinement, on product pricing, project financial evaluation of benchmark rate of return, key indicators such as application of the quantitative analysis, and draw a clear suggestion. Key words，Security housing; Feasibility study; Financial assessmentIII 目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT...............................................................................................................................II 第一章 绪 论..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 房地产的概念 .................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 我国住房制度的发展变化.............................................................................................. 2 1.2.1 建国初期至 1980 年的住房制度............................................................................. 2 1.2.2 1980-1987 的福利住房制度破冰 ............................................................................. 3 1.2.3 1988-1997 的双轨制住房制度，全国性房改 ......................................................... 4 1.2.4 1998 之后的市场化住房制度，住房市场的兴起与住房保障............................... 5 1.3 国内保障性住房动态...................................................................................................... 6 1.3.1 廉租房....................................................................................................................... 6 1.3.2 公共租赁房............................................................................................................... 7 1.3.3 经济适用房............................................................................................................... 8 1.3.4 限价房....................................................................................................................... 8 1.4 国外保障性住房动态...................................................................................................... 9 1.4.1 政府大力干预，政策法规保障............................................................................... 9 1.4.2 建造公共住房，保障中低收入阶层的住房权利................................................. 10 1.4.3 世界各国的保障房政策......................................................................................... 10 1.5 本文的研究内容............................................................................................................ 13 第二章 社会保障房相关概念及理论概述..........................................................................14 2.1 对住房保障产生影响的理论因素................................................................................ 14 2.1.1 经济因素是住房保障政策的物质基础................................................................. 14 2.1.2 政治因素影响住房保障政策的价值取向............................................................. 15 2.1.3 社会因素是住房保障政策制定的现实依据......................................................... 15 2.2 住房保障的基本理论.................................................................................................... 16 2.2.1 住房市场失灵理论................................................................................................. 16 2.2.2 公平与效率理论..................................................................................................... 16 2.2.3 住房梯度消费理论................................................................................................. 17IV 2.2.4 社会保障理论......................................................................................................... 17 2.3 实施保障性住房政策的必要性.................................................................................... 17 2.3.1 实施弱势群体住房保障是现代政府义不容辞的责任......................................... 17 2.3.2 保障房的建设是维护社会稳定的需要。............................................................. 18 2.3.3 保障房的建设是以民为本、造福于民的体现。................................................. 18 2.4 小结................................................................................................................................ 19 第三章 增城市经济及房地产发展状况..............................................................................20 3.1 增城基本情况................................................................................................................ 20 3.1.1 地理位置................................................................................................................. 20 3.1.2 经济......................................................................................................................... 20 3.1.3 农业......................................................................................................................... 22 3.1.4 工业......................................................................................................................... 23 3.2 增城房地产市场发展现状............................................................................................ 23 3.3 周边楼盘分析................................................................................................................ 27 3.4 增城房地产市场展望.................................................................................................... 30 3.5 小结................................................................................................................................ 32 第四章 项目可行性分析......................................................................................................33 4.1 项目基本情况................................................................................................................ 33 4.1.1 本项目建设对于加快新塘城区建设，推进发展意义重大................................. 34 4.1.2 本项目的建设是提升城区形象、改善城市环境的迫切需要............................. 35 4.2 规划设计条件................................................................................................................ 35 4.3 建设标准........................................................................................................................ 37 4.4 项目 SWOT 分析 .......................................................................................................... 39 4.4.1 优势分析................................................................................................................. 39 4.4.2 劣势分析................................................................................................................. 40 4.4.3 机会分析................................................................................................................. 40 4.4.4 威胁分析................................................................................................................. 40 4.5 盈亏平衡分析................................................................................................................ 40 4.5.1 财务评价的假设..................................................................................................... 40 4.5.2 财务指标评价依据及说明..................................................................................... 41V 4.5.3 成本费用估算依据................................................................................................. 41 4.5.4 销售收入估算依据................................................................................................. 42 4.5.5 平衡测算................................................................................................................. 43 4.6 小结................................................................................................................................ 46 第五章 结论和建议..............................................................................................................47 5.1 结论................................................................................................................................ 47 5.2 建议................................................................................................................................ 47