随着现代生产制造技术的迅速发展以及国民生产力的不断提高，我国对于现代自 动化物流系统的需求越来越大。以自动化立体仓库为基础的自动化物流系统同时兼具 信息化、自动化、智能化、机械化、集成化等特点，大力发展自动化物流系统，有助 于在企业内部即可形成较为完善的供应链条，有效提升企业的生产配送效率，从而使 得物流企业不断向集约化与协同化发展。 但是，我国目前的现代自动化物流系统无论是在系统的应用领域范围、相关设备 的核心技术还是物流系统供应链条的完整程度上都与日美、西欧等发达国家差距较 大，我国物流市场仍存在很大的发展空间。此外，国家近期所出台的一系列关于现代 化物流业发展的规划和优惠政策，亦都是自动化物流系统产业的重大发展机遇。 而本文研究对象 TH 公司 W 项目的基本定位便是，打造成为一家集“核心物流设备 研制与供应链物流信息管理系统定制化研发以及自动化物流产业咨询规划、系统集成” 为一体的自动化物流综合解决方案提供商，公司未来将主要涉及现代自动化物流集成 行业。本文即是为 TH 公司 W项目所制作的专项商业计划书。 本文主要采用理论与实证，定性和定量相结合的研究方法。首先从理论层面论述 了本商业计划产生的背景及意义，为后续行文奠定理论基础；其次，对本项目的发展 资源及条件进行阐述，初步确认项目投资的价值，并由此制定项目运作模式、实施进 度计划和进度安排；再次，分别从自动化物流集成行业现处的宏观政策、行业环境、 行业竞争对手方面展开分析，得出本项目所处行业的发展机会和可能威胁；随后采用 SWOT 等分析工具综合考虑了本项目的自身优势和劣势，进而运用市场营销理论进行 市场细分、确定目标市场及进行市场定位，并制定营销计划；最后运用财务管理知识 对本项目财务指标进行评价，及对本项目可能遇到的风险进行分析并提出相应的风险 控制对策。 通过本商业计划书的研究和论证，可以得出 TH 公司 W 项目所处市场环境前景广 阔，内部资源优势明显，且公司经营效益预计良好，具备较强的抗风险能力。研究结 论显示投资开发 TH公司 W项目计划可行。 关键词，自动化物流系统；商业计划书；财务评价；风险分析II Abstract With the rapid development of modern manufacturing technology and the continuous improvement of national productivity, there is an increasing demand for modern automatic logistics systems in China. Automated logistics system based on automated three-dimensional warehouse has the characteristics of informatization, automation, intelligence, mechanization and integration at the same time. Therefore, strive to develop the Automated logistics system has contributed to promote the efficiency of Enterprise production. However, the Chinese Automated logistics system is still far behind of the developed countries. The logistics market of China still has a lot of room for development. In addition, the state recently issued a series of plans and preferential policies on the development of modern logistics industry, are all the significant opportunity that automation logistics system industry develops. This paper studies the basic positioning of TH company W project is to be a Core logistics equipment development and supply chain logistics information management system customization research and development and automation logistics industry consulting planning system integration Automation logistics integrated solution provider. This text is the special business plan for TH company W project. This paper adopts the research method of combining theory and demonstration, qualitative and quantitative analysis. Firstly, this paper discusses the background and significance of the business plan from the theoretical level, which lays the theoretical foundation for the subsequent writing. Secondly, the basic situation and core products of the project company are described, the value of project investment is preliminarily confirmed, and the implementation schedule and schedule of project operation mode are formulated accordingly. Then, Analyze the macro policy, industry environment and industry competitors of automated logistics respectively, and get the development opportunities and possible threats of the industry in which the company is located. Next，the existing development conditions were analyzed from the perspective of existing resources within the company, and the strengths and weaknesses of the project were comprehensively considered with SWOT and other analytical tools. At last, the financial management knowledge is used to evaluate the financial index of the project, and the possible risk of the project is analyzed, and the corresponding risk control countermeasures are proposed. Study and demonstrate the business plan, it can be concluded that TH company W project is located in the market environment with broad prospects, obvious internal resourceIII advantages, and the company is expected to operate well, with the ability to resist risks. So, the conclusion shows that the investment and construction plan of TH company W project is feasible. Key words，Automated logistics system; business plan; financial evaluation; risk analysisIV 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... II 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义...............................................................................................................1 1.2 文献综述...........................................................................................................................2 1.2.1 物流及自动化物流系统的基本概述........................................................................2 1.2.2 国内外研究现状........................................................................................................4 1.2.3 研究内容与研究方法................................................................................................6 第二章 项目发展资源与条件分析..........................................................................................8 2.1 W项目介绍......................................................................................................................8 2.1.1 项目概述....................................................................................................................8 2.1.2 项目发展规划............................................................................................................9 2.1.3 项目选址..................................................................................................................10 2.1.4 项目实施进度计划..................................................................................................10 2.1.5 项目投资估算..........................................................................................................11 2.2 W项目核心产品............................................................................................................12 2.2.1 主要核心硬件产品..................................................................................................12 2.2.2 主要核心信息产品..................................................................................................13 2.3 TH公司简介 ..................................................................................................................14 2.4 TH公司资源与条件分析 ..............................................................................................15 2.4.1 公司人力资源..........................................................................................................15 2.4.2 公司财务能力..........................................................................................................16 2.4.3 市场营销能力..........................................................................................................16 2.4.4 公司技术能力..........................................................................................................16 2.5 本章小结.........................................................................................................................17 第三章 项目发展环境分析....................................................................................................19 3.1 宏观环境分析.................................................................................................................19 3.1.1 政治环境..................................................................................................................19 3.1.2 经济环境..................................................................................................................22V 3.1.3 社会环境..................................................................................................................23 3.1.4 技术环境..................................................................................................................24 3.2 行业环境分析.................................................................................................................24 3.2.1 行业简介..................................................................................................................24 3.2.2 行业未来发展趋势..................................................................................................26 3.3 行业竞争对手分析.........................................................................................................27 3.3.1 物流系统供应商的发展演变..................................................................................27 3.3.2 自动化物流行业的关键竞争点..............................................................................28 3.3.3 我国物流系统市场主要参与者..............................................................................29 3.3.4 国内外竞争对手比较..............................................................................................30 3.3.5 国内细分领域的整体竞争概况..............................................................................30 3.3.6 国内烟草领域的具体竞争概况..............................................................................31 3.4 本章小结.........................................................................................................................32 第四章 项目市场分析和营销、运营策略............................................................................33 4.1 项目 SWOT分析 ...........................................................................................................33 4.1.1 项目优势和劣势......................................................................................................33 4.1.2 项目机会和风险......................................................................................................34 4.1.3 项目发展战略..........................................................................................................35 4.2 项目市场定位.................................................................................................................35 4.2.1 市场细分..................................................................................................................36 4.2.2 目标市场..................................................................................................................37 4.2.3 市场定位..................................................................................................................39 4.3 项目营销策略.................................................................................................................40 4.3.1 产品策略..................................................................................................................40 4.3.2 品牌策略..................................................................................................................41 4.3.3 渠道策略..................................................................................................................42 4.3.4 促销策略..................................................................................................................42 4.4 项目组织及运营计划.....................................................................................................44 4.4.1 预算管控体系..........................................................................................................44 4.4.2 经营管理体系..........................................................................................................45 4.4.3 人力资源体系..........................................................................................................45VI 4.4.4 内部激励体系..........................................................................................................46 4.5 本章小结.........................................................................................................................46 第五章 财务计划及风险分析................................................................................................47 5.1 项目财务情况分析.........................................................................................................47 5.1.1 项目收入预测..........................................................................................................47 5.1.2 项目支出预测..........................................................................................................48 5.1.3 项目利润预测..........................................................................................................50 5.1.4 项目现金流预测......................................................................................................51 5.2 主营毛利率及其变动预测分析.....................................................................................51 5.2.1 毛利率总体情况预测分析......................................................................................51 5.2.2 与同行业上市公司预测对比..................................................................................52 5.3 项目投资回报预测.........................................................................................................53 5.4 项目投资决策指标分析.................................................................................................55 5.4.1 折现率的确定..........................................................................................................55 5.4.2 项目的投资净现值（NPV）..................................................................................56 5.4.3 项目的内部报酬率（IRR）...................................................................................56 5.4.4 项目的投资回收期..................................................................................................57 5.5 项目风险分析及应对措施.............................................................................................58 5.5.1 单因素敏感性分析..................................................................................................58 5.5.2 多因素敏感性分析..................................................................................................58 5.5.3 项目发展资金风险..................................................................................................59 5.5.4 客户过于集中风险..................................................................................................60 5.5.5 目标市场可能风险..................................................................................................60 5.5.6 项目经营管理风险..................................................................................................61 5.6 本章小结.........................................................................................................................61 结 论........................................................................................................................................62