房地产项目投资是一种高风险高回报的投资。在我国,房地产业经过二十几年的发 展,己经成为我国国民经济的重要支柱之一。但是目前国内房地产业中还存在很多不完 善的地方,尤其在投资可行性分析的风险研究方面还不够深入,表现在其一、对房地产前 期的可行性研究,重在对项目是否可行的研究,研究主要是在分析调查的基础上,通过对 项目成本和收入进行分析,利用财务评价的方法得出项目投资开发的各个指标,以此作 为项目是否可行的判断依据. 其二，定性分析和经验决策仍是进行房地产开发风险分析 中常用的方法，风险分析还很表面,决策失误的现象大量存在。 房地产企业在开发经营过程中,不仅关心项目是否可行,更关心在开发过程中对各 环节风险的研究,以做到对有可能发生的风险提前做好防范措施，目前国内这方面的研 究很少。在房地产可行性研究中加强对风险的分析,可以减少投资决策的盲目性,提高房 地产企业的经济效益和促进城市土地的合理使用,使房地产市场健康发展和不断完善。 鉴于以上状况，作者结合自己在房地产开发企业的工作实际,选取了《广州DZ房地 产项目的可行性研究》为题目进行研究,力图通过具体案例对房地产投资进行深入的可 行性分析及投资风险的研究,试图建立一套更为完善的前期可行性分析流程“项目可行 性研究+风险分析”。为企业的良性发展提供科学的决策依据,同时,也希望本研究能够对 同行企业起到一定的借鉴作用。 关键词： 房地产 可行性研究 项目功能定位 财务评价 风险分析II Abstract Real estate investment is a high-risk high-return investments. In China, the real estate industry developed over 20 years and it has been one of the important pillars. However, the current domestic real estate there are still many imperfections in place, particularly in the investment feasibility analysis of the risk research is not enough. First, the real estate pre-feasibility study on the lies of the project feasibility study on analysis of the survey was mainly based on the adoption of the project cost and revenue analysis, financial evaluation of the use of methods that investment and development projects The various indicators, as the project is feasible based on the judgement. Second, the qualitative analysis and experience in decision-making is still a risk analysis of real estate development in the commonly used method, risk analysis is still very superficial, decision-making phenomenon and there are a lot of mistakes. Therefore, the authors select the 《The feasibility study of DZ real estate projects of Guangzhou》for the topic to study, in a bid to the adoption of specific cases of real estate investment in depth. Feasibility Analysis of the research and investment risk in an attempt to establish a more complete analysis of the pre-feasibility process, the feasibility of the project + risk analysis. For the sound development of enterprises to provide a scientific basis for decision making, while also hope that this study of peer companies can play a role in the draw. Key words: Real estate; Feasibility analysis; Function of the project; Financial Evaluation; Risk AnalysisIII 目 录 第一章 绪论............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景...........................................................................................................................1 1.2 国内外房地产可行性研究发展状况...............................................................................2 1.2.1 国外房地产项目可行性研究发展状况 ....................................................................3 1.2.2 国内可行性研究发展状况 ........................................................................................4 1.3 本文研究内容、方法及目的...........................................................................................5 1.3.1 主要研究内容及基本思路 ........................................................................................5 1.3.2 研究的目的 ................................................................................................................6 1.3.3 研究方法 ....................................................................................................................6 第二章 项目市场分析..............................................................................................................8 2.1 本项目概况.......................................................................................................................8 2.2 广州市房地产市场分析...................................................................................................8 2.2.1 宏观因素分析 ............................................................................................................8 2.2.2 广州市房地产发展形势分析 .................................................................................. 11 第三章 项目功能定位分析....................................................................................................14 3.1 项目 SWOT 分析 ...........................................................................................................14 3.2 项目功能定位可选方案.................................................................................................15 3.3 项目定位原则.................................................................................................................15 3.4 广州写字楼物业市场价值分析.....................................................................................16 3.4.1 广州写字楼现状分析 .............................................................................................16 3.4.2 广州写字楼发展预测 .............................................................................................19 3.4.3 写字楼物业价值分析 ..............................................................................................20 3.5 广州市公寓物业市场分析 ............................................................................................20 3.5.1 广州市公寓物业现状分析 ......................................................................................20 3.5.2 广州公寓物业市场总体特点 .................................................................................22 3.5.3 广州公寓市场发展预测 .........................................................................................23 3.5.4 公寓物业的目标客户群 .........................................................................................24 3.6 广州市酒店物业市场分析IV 3.6.1 广州酒店物业现状分析......................................................................................... 24 3.6.2 广州酒店业发展预测............................................................................................. 25 3.6.3 酒店物业价值分析................................................................................................. 26 3.7 广州 DZ 房地产项目定位方案..................................................................................... 28 3.7.1 项目基本经济指标.................................................................................................. 28 3.7.2 酒店、写字楼、公寓三功能对比分析................................................................. 29 3.7.3 项目定位.................................................................................................................. 29 3.7.4 产品定位.................................................................................................................. 30 3.7.5 价格定位.................................................................................................................. 31 第四章 项目财务评价和不确定性分析 ............................................................................. 32 4.1 项目开发成本估算 ........................................................................................................ 32 4.2 资金筹集方案 ............................................................................................................... 33 4.3 项目收入分析 ................................................................................................................ 35 4.4 项目经济评价 ................................................................................................................ 35 4.4.1 项目静态分析.......................................................................................................... 35 4.4.2 项目现金流状况及其经济评价.............................................................................. 36 第五章 房地产投资的风险分析 ........................................................................................... 39 5.1 房地产风险分析的概念 ................................................................................................ 39 5.1.1 风险识别的概念与方法.......................................................................................... 39 5.1.2 风险的评价.............................................................................................................. 39 5.2 房地产投资风险分析的作用 ........................................................................................ 39 5.3 选择 AHP 的依据 .......................................................................................................... 40 5.4 AHP 法的设计思路 ....................................................................................................... 41 5.5 广州 DZ 项目投资风险因素分析................................................................................. 44 第六章 DZ 项目防范对策及建议......................................................................................... 49 6.1 政策风险防范对策 ........................................................................................................ 49 6.2 市场风险防范对策 ........................................................................................................ 50 6.3 经营管理风险防范对策 ................................................................................................ 51 6.3.1 房地产项目融资风险的对策.................................................................................. 51V 6.3.2 项目决策风险防范对策 ..........................................................................................52 6.3.3 营销风险防范对策 ..................................................................................................53