投资项目可行性研究(feasibilitystudy)是投资项目管理程序中的重要组成部 分,是投资项目决策科学化的必要步骤和手段写字楼投资,作为房地产业中一类较为 特殊的投资项目,随着国民经济的发展,在飞速发展的同时也开始出现竞争恶化!投资 过剩等问题为此,我们期望能通过精确!科学的项目可行性研究,帮助投资人充分把 握投资风险,为投资人提供更为可靠!稳定的回报而全面应用定量分析方法!用数据 说话作为近年投资分析领域的发展趋势,将是提高可行性分析准确性和科学性的一种有 效途径 本文首先介绍了一系列适用于写字楼投资项目可行性分析的定量分析方法,然后以 A大厦项目为例,根据/定性与定量结合,以定量为主0的原则,结合最新的计算机应 用技术,方便!快捷地应用多种定量分析方法对项目进行分析,以量化的分析数据来说 明项目的可行程度,有效提高了可行性分析的准确性,为投资分析界把握投资风险!提 高可行性分析的准确性提供一些有借鉴性的思路和工具 关键词:写字楼投资项目可行性研究定量分析FEASIB!L!TYSTUDYONOFF1CEBU比D1NG1NVESTMENTPROJECT W1THAMANS1ONPROJECTASEXAMPLE ABSTRACT Feasibilitystudyof.investlneniProjeet15animPortanteonstituentPartofinvestment ProjeetmanagemeniProeedure,15aneeessarystePandneeessarymeans.Theinvestmentof offieebuilding,asarelativelyPartieularinvestmentProjeetinrealestatecraft,withthe developofnationaleeonomy,TheoffieebuildingalsobeginstoaPPeartoeomPetefor Problemsuehasworsening,investingexeessivelywhileinvestmentmarketdeveloPingatfull sPeed.50,weeanexPeetPreeise,seieniifiefeasibilitystudiesofProjeetstohelPinvestors fullygrasPtheinvestmenirisksforinvestorstoProvidemorereliableandstableretums.But aPPIyquantitativeanalysismethodallround,usedatatosPeakasdeveloPingtrendwiththe fieldofinvestmenianalysislateyears,willbetoimProvefeasibilityanalysisaccuraeyand onekindofeffeetiveaPProaehofseieniifiealness. ThisartielefirstintrodueedaseriesofquantitativeanalysismethodaPPliedtoinvestment Projeetfeasibilityanalysisofoffieebuilding,andthentoAmansionProjeetasanexamPle, aecordingtothe0eombinationofqualitativeandquantitative,toquantitativelyoriented PrineiPle,withthelatesteomPuterteehnology,eonvenieni,sPeedyaPPliesmanykindsof quantitativeanalysismethodtoanalysistoProjeet,withquantitativedatatoillustratethe viabilityoftheProjeet,havean investlnentanalysisseetorgrasP effeettohaveimProvedfeasibilityanalysisaeeuraey,for theinvestlnentrisk,imProveaeeuraeyoftheanalysisofthe feasibilityofprovidingsomeoftheideasandreferencetools# KEYWORDS:Offieebuilding;InvestmentProjeet;FeasibilityStudy; Quantitativeanalysis 委,-目录 摘要.............................................................I ABSTRACT..........................................................11 第一章绪论.......................................................1 1.1研究背景........................................................1 1.2研究目的与意义...................................................2 1.3研究现状........................................................4 1.4研究方法........................................................7 1.5研究框架........................................................7 第二章写字楼投资项目可行性研究内容及方法..............................9 2.1写字楼投资项目可行性研究内容......................................9 2.1.1市场分析......................................................9 2.1.2投资成本与收入估算..............................................9 2.1.3投资项目财务分析...............................................9 2.1.4投资项目风险分析...............................................9 2.1.5投资方案比选..................................................10 2.2可行性分析常用方法.............................................10 2.2.1定性分析方法..................................................10 2.2.2定量分析方法..................................................10 2.3项目市场定量分析方法............................................10 2.3.1回归分析法....................................................11 2.3.2时间序列分析法................................................12 2.4项目财务定量分析方法............................................13 2.4.1非贴现指标:..................................................13 2.4.2贴现指标:....................................................巧 2.5项目风险定量分析方法.,.....................................16 2.6投资方案比选定量分析方法........................................18 2.7计算机技术在定量分析中的应用.....................................18 2.7.1电脑应用软件介绍..............................................19 2.7.2安装使用的特别注意事项.........................................20 2.7.3EXCEL软件在定量分析中的应用范围................................20 第三章实证分析:A大厦投资项目可行性分析..............................21 3.1项目简介......................................................213.1.1项目背景.....................................................21 3.1.2项目概况.....................................................21 3.2投资方案设计...................................................22 3.2.1价值分析.....................................................22 3.2.2投资方案设想...........................................23 3,3市场分析......................................................23 3.3.1宏观环境分析..................................................23 3.3.2市场供给分析..................................................25 3.3.3市场需求分析..................................................28 3.3.4市场趋势分析..................................................29 3.3.5市场竞争分析..................................................30 3.4投资成本与收入估算.............................................33 3.4.1投资成本估算..................................................33 3.4.2投资收入估算..................................................34 3.5财务效益分析及方案比选.........................................377 3.5.1财务效益分析.................................................377 3.5.2方案比选.....................................................39 3.6投资项目风险分析...............................................39 3.6.1政策风险.....................................................39 3.6.2市场供求风险..................................................40 3.6.3财务风险..................................:............40 3.7A大厦投资项目可行性分析结论.....................................41 3.7.1项目存在问题..................................................41 3.7.2对策与建议....................................................42 3.7.3项目综合评价结论..............................................42 第四章结论与展望..................................................43 4.1结论..........................................................43 4.2展望..........................................................44