2010 年 4 月，按照广东省委、省政府对口援建喀什地区的工作部署，广东省广新控 股集团组成项目工作组先后五次赴新疆喀什地区及伽师县围绕棉花种植、棉纺织生产、 研发、物流配送等方面进行了深入细致的考察研究， 一是新疆是我国重要的商品棉基地，2008 年棉花总产量达 301.55 万吨，棉花总产、 单产和人均占有量均位居中国首位，可为棉纱企业提供质量上乘、价廉的原材料，棉纱 业的投资发展潜力巨大。二是喀什地区与广东省棉纱产业优势互补明显。广东省是全国 最大的纺织制造业基地之一，纺织服装生产企业以棉纱产品居多，全省一年生产需要棉 纱 800 万锭以上，几乎全部靠外省和国外进口。三是新疆周边与俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、 阿富汗等八个国家接壤，是中国与中亚、欧洲连接的唯一陆路通道，是继北美经济圈、 欧盟经济圈和东亚经济圈后的全球第四大经济圈——中西南亚经济圈的重心区。四是政 策春风频吹，区域振兴政策正在落实，经济社会发展正面临新的发展机遇。 通过考察论证，广新控股集团拟在新疆喀什地区伽师县投资 4.5 亿元，占地 1200 亩，聘用产业工人 1,270 人，将于 2012 年建成 10 万锭高端棉纺生产项目。正常年产棉 纱销售收入为 8.43 亿元；净利润 5,083 万元，投资利润率 12.77%，项目资本金收益率 为 50.83%，内部收益率 14.89%，项目静态投资回收期 7.45 年（含建设期）。本项目的 经济效益十分显著，本项目的风险较小。 关键词，新疆喀什；棉纱生产；商业计划书II Abstract In April 2010，according to the deployment of Guangdong government’s aid in construction of Kashi,Guangdong Guangxin Foreign Trade Group built up the working group , they have been to Jiashi county Kashi Xinjiang for five times to review and study the cotton planting, production of cotton weaving, cotton studying, cotton logistics : First, Xinjiang is the important cotton base in our country, the total output of 2008 of cotton is 3,015,500 tons. It’s cotton production is No.1 in China, including total production ,single production, personal production. They provide high quality and cheap raw materials for cotton yarn enterprises, the investment development potential in cotton yarn is huge. Second , Kashi and Guangdong are having complementary advantages in the cotton yarn industry. Guangdong is the largest manufacturing base of weaving in China, most of them are cotton yarn productions, they need more than 8,000,000 ingot of cotton yarn one year, almost all of them are from other provinces or imported from abroad. Third, Xinjiang is border on eight countries such as Russia, Hazakstan, Afghanistan. It’s the only landway to Central Asia and Europe from china, It’s the fourth largest Economic Ring –the center of Middle Southwest Asia, followed the North America Economic Ring and EU Economic Ring. Fourth, the policy of promoting the areas is being carried out. the economy society is facing a new opportunity of development. So, Guangxin Foreign Trade Group is planning to invest 0.45 billion in Jiashi, located in Kashi, Xinjiang. It will Cover 1,200 acres of land, hire1,270 workers, 100,000 ingot cotton spinning manufacture item will be built in 2012. According to the normal market cotton price as ￥16,800/ton in Jan Sep 2010, and cotton yarn’s price as ￥31,000/ ton, calculate under the situation as normal annual output of cotton yarn is 16,000 tons, the sales revenue is 0.496 billion yuan. According to annual flow 30,000 tons of cotton, it can achieve 0.252 billion earning. This item can achieve annual sales revenue 0.843 billion yuan, retained profits is 50.83 million. The total return on investment is 12.77%, return on assets is 50.83%, internal rate of discount is 14.89%, the investment capital is recovered in 7.45years ( including the building period). This item has huge economic benefits and small risks. Keywords: Kashi Xinjiang; cotton yarn production; business planIII 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I Abstract ......................................................................................................................................II 图表目录.................................................................................................................................VII 第一章 绪 论............................................................................................................................1 1.1 项目背景 ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 项目实施的意义 ............................................................................................................. 2 1.2.1 政治层面意义........................................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 社会层面意义........................................................................................................... 2 1.2.3 战略层面意义........................................................................................................... 3 1.2.4 抢占先机层面意义................................................................................................... 3 1.3 项目的必要性 ................................................................................................................. 4 1.4 文献综述 ......................................................................................................................... 4 1.4.1 商业计划书编制方面............................................................................................... 5 1.4.2 战略管理方面........................................................................................................... 5 1.4.3 生产与运作、营销管理方面................................................................................... 6 1.4.4 财务管理方面........................................................................................................... 7 1.5 研究的方法与内容 ......................................................................................................... 8 第二章 项目概况....................................................................................................................10 2.1 项目及承办单位概况 ................................................................................................... 10 2.1.1 项目名称及承办单位............................................................................................. 10 2.1.2 承办单位概况......................................................................................................... 10 2.1.3 主要投资单位概况................................................................................................. 11 2.2 战略规划 ....................................................................................................................... 12 2.2.1 公司使命和目标..................................................................................................... 12 2.2.2 项目发展规划......................................................................................................... 12 2.2.3 项目市场规划......................................................................................................... 12 2.3 项目概况 ....................................................................................................................... 13 2.3.1 项目组建方案......................................................................................................... 13IV 2.4 研究指导思想和工作范围 ........................................................................................... 14 2.4.1 研究的指导思想..................................................................................................... 14 2.4.2 研究的工作范围..................................................................................................... 14 2.5 研究的成果概要 ........................................................................................................... 15 2.6 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 16 第三章 环境分析....................................................................................................................17 3.1 宏观环境分析 ............................................................................................................... 17 3.1.1 政策环境................................................................................................................. 17 3.1.2 经济环境................................................................................................................. 18 3.1.3 社会环境................................................................................................................. 21 3.1.4 技术环境................................................................................................................. 22 3.2 行业竞争五力分析 ....................................................................................................... 22 3.2.1 同行业竞争者的竞争............................................................................................. 23 3.2.2 供应商的讨价还价................................................................................................. 23 3.2.3 顾客的讨价还价..................................................................................................... 24 3.2.4 潜在进入者的威胁................................................................................................. 24 3.2.5 替代品的威胁......................................................................................................... 25 3.3 SWOT 分析 .................................................................................................................... 25 3.3.1 优势......................................................................................................................... 25 3.3.2 劣势......................................................................................................................... 26 3.3.3 机会......................................................................................................................... 27 3.3.4 威胁......................................................................................................................... 27 3.3.5 组合分析................................................................................................................. 27 3.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 28 第四章 市场预测分析............................................................................................................29 4.1 销售市场预测 ............................................................................................................... 29 4.2 棉花市场价格分析 ....................................................................................................... 30 4.2.1 我国棉花市场价格分析......................................................................................... 30 4.2.2 原棉来源的可靠性................................................................................................. 31 4.3 纺织品市场调查 ........................................................................................................... 32V 4.3.1 中国纺织品需求景气持续..................................................................................... 32 4.3.2 同行业企业调研报告............................................................................................. 33 4.4 市场前景 ....................................................................................................................... 34 4.5 项目产品结构 ............................................................................................................... 35 4.5.1 产品营销策略......................................................................................................... 36 4.6 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 36 第五章 项目运营与管理........................................................................................................37 5.1 组织结构 ....................................................................................................................... 37 5.2 项目实施规划 ............................................................................................................... 39 5.2.1 项目实施规划如下，............................................................................................. 39 5.2.2 项目的招标范围..................................................................................................... 39 5.2.3 项目的招标形式..................................................................................................... 39 5.2.4 设备招标目录......................................................................................................... 40 5.3 建设规模及产品方案 ................................................................................................... 40 5.4 工艺流程 ....................................................................................................................... 41 5.5 设备选型 ....................................................................................................................... 41 5.6 生产车间 ....................................................................................................................... 42 5.7 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 43 第六章 项目财务分析............................................................................................................44 6.1 投资估算 ....................................................................................................................... 44 6.1.1 工程概况 ................................................................................................................................. 44 6.1.2 编制依据................................................................................................................. 44 6.1.3 投资估算................................................................................................................. 44 6.2 资金筹措 ....................................................................................................................... 44 6.2.1 项目固定资产投资................................................................................................. 44 6.2.2 项目流动资金......................................................................................................... 45 6.3 项目经济效益分析 ....................................................................................................... 45 6.3.1 评价依据................................................................................................................. 45 6.3.2 生产成本................................................................................................................. 45 6.3.3 财务评价................................................................................................................. 46VI 6.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 48 第七章 项目风险和对策........................................................................................................49 7.1 人力资源风险和对策 ................................................................................................... 49 7.2 政策风险及对策 ........................................................................................................... 49 7.3 原材料控制风险及对策 ............................................................................................... 49 7.4 市场风险及对策 ........................................................................................................... 50 7.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 50 结 论........................................................................................................................................51