按照经济学一般原理，“投资是指经济主体为获取未来经济收益或效益而投入资金 或其他资源，以形成资产的经济活动”。投资建设项目又是一个涉及面广的复杂的系统 工程。为了使投资活动能够取得成功，企业在最终决定投资一个项目前，必须对该项目 开展科学的投资决策研究，编写一份高质量的商业计划书就是为了实现这一投资决策研 究。 本商业计划书是通过对 Y 公司投资开发 S 风力发电项目（简称 S 项目）的策划研 究，为 Y 公司投资决策及潜在贷款人的评估提供完整的项目信息。Y 公司是一家核心产 业涉及煤电、水电、天然气发电、风电、生物质发电、太阳能发电、核电等；多元化产 业涉及煤矿、航运、港口、LNG 接收站、装备制造业、金融业等领域的大型能源集团 公司。S 项目是 Y 公司通过规划选址、风力资源采集后列入近期开发计划的项目。 本商业计划书首先在介绍分析 Y 公司的基本情况、国家能源政策、项目行业政策和 广东省风电资源及开发情况、广东省和项目区域电力市场情况等项目内外部环境的基础 上论述了 Y 公司的发展战略以及开发 S 项目的背景和动因，并随后通过迈克尔o波特的 五力竞争模型分析法和 SWOT 分析法对 L 项目的竞争环境作了详细分析。分析显示，S 项目拥有区域风力资源优势、政府能源政策鼓励优势、与客户良好的关系优势，但也面 临价格劣势，潜在进入者及现有竞争对手对其构成一定威胁。不过可通过扬长避短，总 体而言还是利大于弊。 本商业计划书还对 S 项目从风电机组布置、风电机组选型、建设规模与发电量计算、 电气设计和设备清单、建筑物及工程量清单的工程建设方案，以及从项目施工条件、施 工总布置、施工交通运输、工程征地、主体工程施工、施工总进度、主要物质供应计划 的工程施工管理进行了详细的分析研究，根据分析研究结果，项目在技术方面、建设条 件方面具有可行性。同时，通过对项目投资估算、资金筹措计划、成本和收益测算、现 金流量测算和财务指标进行了重点分析研究，分析研究结果表明，本项目在财务方面也 具有可行性。 本商业计划书同时进行了项目盈亏平衡点和敏感性的不确定性分析，最后对项目运 作过程中可能遇到的风险进行分析并提出相应的风险控制对策。 关键词，计划书；风力发电；财务分析；风险分析II Abstract In accordance with the general principles of economics, Investment is an economic activity from which economic subjects acquire benefit by funding or other resources and forming the assets. Investment is complicated system engineering and has wide outreach. In order to ensure investment successful, enterprise has to carry on feasibility research before making the final decision and prepare a high quality business plan, which is good to he process of investment decision making. Through the development plan of Y S wind power Program (“S Project”) invested by Y company, this business plan provide the completed information refer to evaluation for Y company and potential lender. Y Company is one of mega energy groups, its core businesses include coal fired power, hydropower, natural gas fired power, wind power, biomass power, photovoltaic power and nuclear power, etc, and the diversified businesses cover coal mines, ports, shipping, LNG receiving stations, equipment manufacturing, and finance. After Y company finish the planning and site selection, wind resource surveying, S Project has been listed into the near future development plan. Based on introduction of Y Company, national energy policy, industry policy, wind energy development of Guangdong, situation and environment of power sector in Guangdong and regional market, this business plan represent Y Company's development strategy, the background and motivation of S Project, and environment and competition analysis by Michael Porter's Five Forces Competitive Model and SWOT Matrix. S Project advantages include regional wind resources, government energy policy and good customer relationship. In the meantime, this project may experience the low tariff and the challenge from potential and existing competitors. In general, opportunities will outweigh challenges. The business plan also researches the selection and layout of wind turbines, construction scale, calculation of electricity energy, electrical design and equipment list, quantities of project construction, as well as the construction condition, layout, transportation, land acquisition, main construction, progress, supply management of main construction material. According to the analysis, S Project is feasible in the technical aspects and construction conditions. Based on investment estimation, financing plan, analysis of cost benefit and cash flow and financial index, it is feasible of S Project in financially also feasible. In the meantime, the business plan makes uncertainty analysis of sensitivity and the breakeven point, discuss the potential risk during executing this project and the corresponding risk control measures. Key words: Business Plan; Wind Power; Financial Analysis; Risk AnalysisIII 目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ...............................................................................................................................II 图表目录..................................................................................................................................VI 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 项目背景和意义.............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 国内外风电开发现状...................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 国内外风电发展现状............................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 风电技术发展趋势................................................................................................... 3 1.2.3 未来 10 年我国及广东省风电装机将大幅增长..................................................... 4 1.2.4 未来风力发电项目盈利空间将逐步提高............................................................... 4 1.3 主要内容和研究方法...................................................................................................... 4 第二章 项目概况、公司概况..................................................................................................5 2.1 项目概况 .......................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 地理位置................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.2 风能资源................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.3 工程地质................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 公司概况.......................................................................................................................... 6 2.3 本章小结.......................................................................................................................... 8 第三章 项目环境分析及开发动因........................................................................................10 3.1 宏观环境分析及开发动因............................................................................................ 10 3.1.1 能源政策简述......................................................................................................... 10 3.1.2 风电行业政策简述................................................................................................. 11 3.1.3 广东省一次能源资源情况及能源消费概况......................................................... 12 3.1.4 广东风电资源及其开发情况................................................................................. 12 3.1.5 开发动因................................................................................................................. 13 3.2 市场分析........................................................................................................................ 14 3.2.1 广东省电力市场现状和预测................................................................................. 14 3.2.2 J 市电力市场现状和预测 ....................................................................................... 15IV 3.2.3 W 县电力市场现状和预测 ..................................................................................... 16 3.2.4 目标市场分析......................................................................................................... 16 3.3 竞争性分析.................................................................................................................... 17 3.3.1 竞争对手分析......................................................................................................... 18 3.3.2 替代品的威胁......................................................................................................... 18 3.3.3 潜在进入者的威胁................................................................................................. 19 3.3.4 供应商议价能力..................................................................................................... 19 3.3.5 客户议价能力......................................................................................................... 19 3.4 项目 SWOT 分析 .......................................................................................................... 19 3.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 21 第四章 项目建设方案............................................................................................................23 4.1 风电机组布置................................................................................................................ 23 4.2 风电机组选型、建设规模与发电量计算.................................................................... 24 4.2.1 风电机组选型......................................................................................................... 24 4.2.2 建设规模与发电量计算......................................................................................... 24 4.3 电气设计........................................................................................................................ 25 4.4 土建工程........................................................................................................................ 25 4.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 26 第五章 施工组织设计及运营管理........................................................................................27 5.1 施工组织设计................................................................................................................ 27 5.1.1 施工总体布置原则................................................................................................. 27 5.1.2 施工交通运输......................................................................................................... 27 5.1.3 工程征地................................................................................................................. 27 5.1.4 施工总进度............................................................................................................. 27 5.1.5 主要物质供应计划................................................................................................. 28 5.2 项目运营管理................................................................................................................ 28 5.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 29 第六章 项目财务分析............................................................................................................30 6.1 项目投资估算................................................................................................................ 30 6.2 项目投资计划与资金筹措............................................................................................ 31V 6.3 销售收入预测................................................................................................................ 32 6.4 销售成本、税金与利润估算........................................................................................ 33 6.5 现金流量表及清偿能力分析........................................................................................ 34 6.6 盈利能力分析................................................................................................................ 35 6.7 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 49 第七章 风险分析与对策........................................................................................................50 7.1 项目不确定性分析........................................................................................................ 50 7.1.1 盈亏平衡点（Break Even Point，简称 BEP） .................................................... 50 7.1.2 敏感性分析............................................................................................................. 50 7.2 项目风险分析................................................................................................................ 51 7.2.1 政策风险与对策..................................................................................................... 52 7.2.2 技术风险与对策..................................................................................................... 52 7.2.3 工程建设风险与对策............................................................................................. 52 7.2.4 自然灾害风险......................................................................................................... 53 7.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 53 结 论........................................................................................................................................54