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基于城市更新的城市综合体项目开发可行性研究-以深圳FH厂为例

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城市综合体作为城市土地和各种资源集约最适宜的产品,在目前我国城市更 新的过程中越来越受到当地政府和企业的欢迎。这些年城市更新在我国经济转型 过程中被大规模开展起来,这是城市的自我进化和完善的必然之路。尤其是当城 市中的土地资源被过度开发后,如何集约化地利用已建成的旧城区以及旧的建筑 体优化城市结构,美化城市环境,提高城市活力的新需求成为亟待解决的新课题。 这其中就包括对旧城区的低密度、低容积率的工业区厂房进行二次再开发集约利 用。像深圳这样的城市尤为迫切,尽管深圳在 5 年前就已经开始大规模的城市更 新建设。 报告以深圳市南油片区一个典型的工业区城市更新项目为研究对象,分析其 在城市更新过程中转变为一个集 A 级写字楼、商务公寓、商业、文体设施、教 育等多项城市功能于一体的城市综合体的可行性。本文主要由三个部分组成。首 先,在对城市更新和城市综合体的有关文献进行梳理的基础上,对城市综合体的 概念和特征进行理论上的厘清,比较关于综合体三种概念的来源差异。其次,针 对目前深圳市城市更新现状,总结分析深圳市城市更新的特点,并探析相关的政 策。同时,分析目前宏观政策、环境和微观的人文、区位、经济发展水平等影响 因素。最终,综合运用文献研究法、市场调研法、实证研究、经济可行性研究方 法对该项目进行可行性研究。报告先对该项目区域的住宅、商业、办公三个市场 进行分析研究,在此基础上就市场、客户、产品和价格分别作出项目定位等,再 通过对项目的财务分析等经济评价,对其可行性、盈利性、资金流的稳定性、市 场效应多方面做了系统性的实证研究,尝试对项目进行多方案的比较,得出该综 合体项目具有优秀的经济效益和发展潜力的结论,并给出比较后的相关建议。本 项目可行性研究的论证过程和结论建议对同行业从业者及城市发展规划制定者 亦具有一定的借鉴意义。 关键词,城市综合体;城市更新;项目定位;财务分析II ABSTRACT Urban complex is most suitable products to intensive urban land and resources. In the current process of urban renewal, more and more urban complex are welcomed by the local government and enterprises at present. These years, in the process of transformation of the national economy, the large-scale urban renewal is carried out, and this is a self-evolution and improvement of urban inevitable road. Especially when the city's land resources are overexploited How has been optimum the urban structure to intensive use of the old town been built, Beautifying the urban environment, to reinvigorate the city, these have become new issues solved. To include low density and low architecture volume rate of plant in the Old Town industrial area, its use intensively about secondary development. Although Shenzhen has begun a large-scale construction of Urban Renewal five years before, Cities is particularly urgent such as Shenzhen. This Paper takes a typical urban renewal project about Industrial Area in Shenzhen City NANYOU district as the research object,and analyses its feasibility in the process of transformation to a commercial urban complex, which has several city funtions of Grade A office, apartment, Shop, Cultural and sports facilities, Educational facilities,etc. This paper is mainly consisted of three parts. First of all, based on the summary of relevant documents of urban renewal and urban context,it clarifies the concepts and characteristics of urban complex are in theory,and makes comparison of source differences of three concepts of complex. Secondly,directed towards the present situation of Shenzhen urban renewal,it summarizes the characteristics of Shenzhen urban renewal,and analyses relevant policies. At the same time,it analyses influence factors of present macro policies,environment and micro humanity ,location,level of economic development,ect.Last,literature research method, market research method,empirical research method,and economic feasibility study are adopted comrehensively on the study of this project.The paper makes systematic empirical research in depth on its feasibility,profitability,stability of capital flow,market effect from the aspects of project’s market research,market positioning,target-customer orienatation, Price determination, product planning and financial anlysis,tries to make multivariant comparisons,summerizes that this urban complex project is of excellent economic benefit and development potential,and gives sugestions after comparison.The process of argumentation and suggestions of feasibility study of this project have some references for real estate Industry and urbanIII development planning makers. Keywords: Urban Complex; Urban Renewal; Project orientation; Financial AnalysisIV 目 录 摘要.............................................................................................................................. I ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................. II 第 1 章 绪论..................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义 .................................................................................................1 1.2 研究现状 .............................................................................................................3 1.2.1 国外研究现状...............................................................................................3 1.2.2 国内研究现状...............................................................................................4 1.3 研究内容 .............................................................................................................6 1.4 研究方法及研究框架 .........................................................................................7 第 2 章 城市综合体及城市更新概况分析..................................................................9 2.1 城市综合体概念辨析与分类 ...........................................................................10 2.1.1 城市综合体相关概念辨析.........................................................................10 2.1.2 城市综合体的分类.....................................................................................13 2.2 城市综合体理论基础与主要特征 ...................................................................13 2.2.1 城市综合体两大理论基础.........................................................................13 2.2.2 城市综合体的五大特征.............................................................................14 2.3 城市综合体的国内发展特点与国外典型案例 ...............................................17 2.3.1 国内城市综合体发展特点.........................................................................17 2.3.2 国外城市综合体代表案例.........................................................................20 2.4 城市更新概括分析 ...........................................................................................21 2.4.1 城市更新概念与理论基础.........................................................................21 2.4.2 城市更新的发展历程.................................................................................22 第 3 章 深圳市城市综合体及城市更新现状分析..................................................24 3.1 深圳市城市综合体发展现况及趋势 ...............................................................24 3.2 深圳城市更新发展现状及特点 .......................................................................27 3.2.1 深圳城市更新发展历程.............................................................................27 3.2.2 深圳城市更新的规划思路.........................................................................28 3.3 深圳市城市更新法规解析 ...............................................................................29 3.3.1 项目更新补地价政策.................................................................................30 3.3.2 项目更新保障性住房政策.........................................................................31 3.3.3 深圳市工业楼宇转让相关政策.................................................................32V 3.4 工业区城市更新与城市综合体 .......................................................................32 3.4.1 深圳城市更新存在的一些问题.................................................................32 3.4.2 深圳城市综合体规划开发存在的问题.....................................................33 3.4.3 以城市综合体促进工业区的城市更新.....................................................34 3.5 南山区城市更新概况及工业类更新案例 .......................................................34 3.5.1 南山区城市更新概况.................................................................................34 3.5.2 南山工业区更新案例...............................................................................35 第 4 章 深圳 FH 厂项目区域市场分析及项目定位 ................................................37 4.1 FH 厂项目区域发展与规划分析 ......................................................................37 4.1.1 FH 厂项目概况 ...........................................................................................37 4.1.2 深圳市经济政策环境分析.........................................................................38 4.1.3 区域发展与规划分析.................................................................................40 4.2 项目区域房地产市场分析 ...............................................................................42 4.2.1 一手房住宅市场分析.................................................................................42 4.2.2 写字楼市场分析.........................................................................................42 4.2.3 商业市场分析.............................................................................................46 4.3 FH 厂城市综合体项目的 SWOT 分析.............................................................48 4.3.1 项目的优势.................................................................................................48 4.3.2 项目的劣势.................................................................................................48 4.3.3 项目的机会.................................................................................................48 4.3.4 项目的威胁.................................................................................................49 4.3.5 项目分析结论.............................................................................................49 4.4 FH 厂更新城市综合体项目定位 ......................................................................50 4.4.1 区位定位与市场定位.................................................................................50 4.4.2 更新改造方向.............................................................................................50 4.4.3 功能定位与物业类型配比定位.................................................................51 4.4.4 客户定位与产品定位.................................................................................52 4.4.5 价格定位.....................................................................................................54 第 5 章 深圳 FH 厂城市综合体项目可行性分析 ....................................................56 5.1 项目经济可行性分析主要方法 .......................................................................56 5.1.1 盈亏平衡分析.............................................................................................56 5.1.2 财务净现值法.............................................................................................57 5.1.3 财务内部报酬率法.....................................................................................57VI 5.1.4 投资回收期法.............................................................................................58 5.2 更新开发方案设计与项目建设方案解析 .......................................................58 5.2.1 更新开发方案设计.....................................................................................58 5.2.2 项目开发建设方案.....................................................................................59 5.3 项目开发与销售进度安排 ...............................................................................60 5.3.1 项目工程进度安排.....................................................................................60 5.3.2 销售进度安排.............................................................................................60 5.4 项目总投资估算 ...............................................................................................61 5.5 销售总收入及税费测算 ...................................................................................67 5.5.1 销售总收入估算.........................................................................................67 5.5.2 销售税费测算.............................................................................................68 5.6 资金筹措和使用 ...............................................................................................69 5.7 项目财务效益分析 ...........................................................................................74 5.7.1 动态盈利分析.............................................................................................74 5.7.2 静态盈利分析.............................................................................................74 5.8 项目不确定分析 ...............................................................................................75 5.8.1 敏感性分析.................................................................................................75 5.8.2 盈亏平衡分析.............................................................................................76 第 6 章 方案结论与建议............................................................................................77 6.1 开发方案比较 ...................................................................................................77 6.2 结论与建议 .......................................................................................................79 6.2.1 结论.............................................................................................................79 6.2.2 建议.............................................................................................................79