苹果是世界水果供应的重要组成部分，也是我国水果产出和出口的重要品 种。当前世界苹果总产量约为 3200 万吨，中国为世界第一苹果产出国，产量约 占世界总产量的 46%左右。 烟台栖霞地区为我国苹果的主要和重要产区，在品 种的优选、先进种植技术的引进、安全质量的把控、全产业链的覆盖，以及产业 信息化的普及等诸多方面，均处于全国领先地位。 烟台清田果蔬有限公司，为烟台栖霞地区苹果生产行业的龙头企业。为了充 分利用既有地域和产业优势，不断提升和完善在苹果产业链中的核心竞争力，顺 应“互联网+”时代不断涌现的新型电子商务、交易平台和渠道，为消费者提供 了更加透明化和多样化的购买和物流渠道，清田果蔬有限公司，计划融资扩建现 有规模，打造一个集采购、加工、仓储、物流信息处理为一体的“苹果产业发展 中心”，从而不断完善自身的行业竞争力和提高经济效益。 本文拟主要从财务方面，对清田果蔬有限公司的融资扩建项目进行深入的可 行性分析，并在最后针对该项目的市场定位、选址和运营方案、经济效益方面， 做出结论性和指导性的建议。 需要指出的是，虽然本文的分析与建议是针对某一具体个案展开，但文中所 使用的分析体系和分析方法，对正在升级和转型中的众多中国企业，尤其是生产 型的企业，都具有借鉴意义。 关 键 词，财 务报表分析，盈利能力分析，不确定性分析6 Abstract Apple is the mainstream product of worldwide fruit supply, and it consists of an important proportion of the fruit production and exportation in China. The total present apple production outcome is estimated at 320 million tons, whereas Chin, as the leading exporter, a consists of 46% of the total share approximately. Xi Xia of Yan Tai is one of the most important the apple producing area in China. It leads the whole industry, nation wide, in bread selection, advanced cultivation technique adoption, quality and safety control, complete supply chain covering, and promotion of information system. To further utilize the regional and industrial advantage, continue improving its core competence within the industry, accommodate to the new trading & logistics channels generating by Internet Plus technology, and provide the domestic consumers with more transparent and multiple sales and delivery patterns, Yan Tai Qing Tian Fruit Corporation, as the leading local enterprise, plans to expand its existing facility with the assistance of certain way of financing. It aims at building and developing a complete apple business supply chain, comprised of cultivation, purchasing, processing, storage, logistics and information platform. This will enhance its compatibility in the whole industry and boast its bottom line profit. In this dissertation, which puts its focus on marketing and finance, an in-depth feasibility analysis will be carried out and developed. A guiding conclusion will be drawn in the aspects of market positioning and marketing strategy, location selection, operation strategy, financial strategy and economic return. It should be stressed here, that, although this paper is completed based on a specific case in reality, the analysis system and methodoloty, is perfectly pertinant to all the enterprises, expecially those asset-based production facilities. It is particulairly ture in a time when millions Chinese small-mid sized enterprises are either experiencing certain type of transformation or upgrading their business models. Key Words: Financial report analysis, Profitability analysis, Uncertainty analysis7 目 录 第 1 章 引言......................................................................................................9 1.1 研究背景与意义..........................................................................................9 1.1.1 背景分析..........................................................................................9 1.1.2 研究目的和意义............................................................................. 10 1.2 研究方法....................................................................................................10 1.3 研究框架及主要思路................................................................................11 第 2 章 项目市场研究分析及经济效益分析指标..............................13 2.1 市场分析....................................................................................................13 2.1.1 市场分析构成元素..........................................................................13 2.2 经济效益指标分析....................................................................................15 2.2.1 静态评价指标.................................................................................15 2.2.2 动态评价指标.................................................................................16 2.3 不确定性和风险分析................................................................................24 第 3 章 项目概述...........................................................................................28 3.1 项目背景....................................................................................................28 3.1.1 项目名称........................................................................................28 3.1.2 项目方财务概况............................................................................. 28 3.1.3 项目概况.......................................................................................30 3.1.4 设备方案.......................................................................................31 3.1.5 项目经营方案................................................................................31 3.1.6 项目设计计算期............................................................................. 31 3.1.7 投资估算和资金筹措...................................................................................31 3.1.8 项目财务分析评论.......................................................................................32 3.2 主要技术经济指标表................................................................................32 第 4 章财务可行性分析...............................................................................33 4.1 项目总投资估算........................................................................................33 4.1.1 总投资估算...................................................................................................33 4.1.2 资金来源.......................................................................................................34 4.1.3 项目筹资方案...............................................................................................34 4.2 生产总成本和销售收入估算....................................................................34 4.2.1 生产总成本估算...........................................................................................34 4.2.2 销售税金及附加和其他税费估算...............................................................358 4.2.3 收入估算.......................................................................................................35 4.3 资产结构分析............................................................................................36 4.3.1 总投资构成分析...........................................................................................36 4.3.2 流动资产构成基本情况分析.......................................................................37 4.4 资产结构分析............................................................................................38 4.5 负债及所有者权益分析............................................................................39 4.5.1 负债及所有者权益构成分析............................................................39 4.6 负债增减变化原因分析............................................................................40 4.7 权益的增减变化原因分析........................................................................41 4.8 收入结构预测分析....................................................................................43 4.8.1 收入总额分析.................................................................................43 4.9 成本费用结构分析....................................................................................44 4.9.1 总成本的构成情况分析...............................................................................44 4.9.2 主营业务成本分析.......................................................................................45 4.10 利润结构预测分析..................................................................................46 4.10.1 利润总额分析...............................................................................46 4.11 未来收益预测..........................................................................................48 4.11.1 总投资未来收益分析.....................................................................48 4.12 盈利能力分析..........................................................................................49 4.12.1 营业利润率分析.........................................................................................49 4.12.2 净资产收益率分析.....................................................................................50 4.12.3 总资产报酬率分析.....................................................................................51 4.12.4 成本费用利润率分析.................................................................................52 4.13 发展能力分析..........................................................................................53 4.13.1 销售收入增长情况分析.............................................................................53 4.13.2 净利润增长情况分析.................................................................................54 4.14 经济效益指标分析..................................................................................55 4.15 不确定性和风险分析..............................................................................55 4.15.1 敏感性分析...................................................................................55 第 5 章 项目数据分析结论与建议..........................................................59 5.1 对项目的结论性意见................................................................................59 致谢................................................................................................... 61