目前，中国还未形成健全的可再生能源发电市场，绿色电力需求不断增长的同时， 面临着诸多的问题及阻碍。本文希望通过研究绿色电力行业竞争性，提出提高行业竞争 力的建议，帮助绿色电力企业克服阻碍因素，提高整体管理水平，推动可再生能源发电 市场的建成。 本文首先从绿色电力行业发展现状入手，在分析行业整体现状的基础上，通过分别 对水电、风电、光电及核电行业的具体分析，可以看出中国绿色电力发电装机容量已居 世界前列，但发电成本较高等问题依旧阻碍着行业的发展。因此，本文基于波特的五力 模型，从现有竞争者的竞争、潜在进入者威胁、替代品威胁、供应商的议价能力、购买 者的议价能力等方面对绿色电力行业竞争力进行详细分析，更加全面的了解绿色电力行 业竞争性。其中，在对个体购买者议价能力的研究中，本文基于计划行为理论，采用问 卷调查的方式，运用列联分析法分析了个体购买者的支付意愿，以获取降低政府补贴的 有效方法。最后，本文运用层次分析法，构建层次分析模型，对绿色电力行业竞争力进 行评价分析，得出各指标所占权重，并运用熵权法与层次分析法相结合，求得综合权重， 以获得更加客观的行业竞争力评价模型。 通过以上研究可以得出，在五大竞争力中，最具有影响作用应为购买者议价能力。 企业购买绿色电力呈现出不积极现象，而个体购买者又难以支付较高电价，因此也造成 了绿色电力难以大规模推广的现状。从评价指标所占权重也可以看出，个体购买者的个 人因素、成本及上网电价、补贴政策等指标为影响行业竞争力的重要指标。针对以上结 果，本文从购买者及电力企业两方面提出对策建议，以期通过提高个体购买者对绿色电 力的认知程度、政府补贴与资源支付合理配比等措施提高购买者支付意愿的同时，鼓励 企业就地消纳、侧重发展以降低发电成本，提高电力企业竞争力。 本文希望通过以上研究，使绿色电力企业清楚认识到所处行业现状及自身优劣势， 在以后的绿色电力行业改革中有所适用，推进中国低碳经济发展，对行业发展具有可参 考意义。 关键词：绿色电力，行业竞争，层次分析法，熵权法，列联分析法2 Abstract At present, China has not yet formed a sound renewable energy power generation market. While the demand for green power is increasing, China is facing many problems and obstacles. By analyzing the competitiveness of green power industry, this paper hopes to put forward some suggestions to improve the industrial competitiveness, help green power enterprises overcome obstacles, improve the overall management level, and promote the establishment of renewable energy power generation market. Firstly, through the specific analysis of the current situation of green power industry, it can be seen that China's green power generation capacity has been in the forefront of the world, but the higher cost of power generation hinders the development of the industry. Therefore, based on Porter's five competitiveness models, this paper makes a detailed analysis of the rivalry among competing sellers, potential new entrants, threat of substitute product, suppliers bargaining power and buyer bargaining power. In the study of bargaining power of individual buyers, based on the theory of planned behavior, this paper uses the method of questionnaire survey and contingency analysis to analyze individual consumers' willingness to pay. Finally, this paper uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate and analyze the competitiveness of green power industry, combining entropy weight method with AHP to obtain comprehensive weight, so as to obtain a more objective analysis model of industrial competitiveness level. From the above research, it can be concluded that among the five competitiveness, the most influential one is the bargaining power of buyers. From the weight of the evaluation indicators, it can be seen that individual consumer's personal factors, cost, grid price and subsidy policy are the most important indicators. Therefore, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from both buyers and power enterprises. Through the above researches, this paper hopes to help green power enterprises to clearly understand the current situation of their industries and promote the development of low-carbon economy in China, which has reference significance for industrial development. Key Words: Green Power, Industrial Competition, AHP, Entropy Weight Method, Contingency Analysis3 目 录 1 绪论....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究目的与意义.......................................................................................................... 2 1.3 国内外研究现状.......................................................................................................... 3 1.3.1 绿色电力............................................................................................................ 3 1.3.2 行业竞争力........................................................................................................ 5 1.4 研究内容.................................................................................................................... 11 1.5 研究思路与方法........................................................................................................ 11 1.5.1 研究思路.......................................................................................................... 11 1.5.2 研究方法.......................................................................................................... 12 2 理论与方法......................................................................................................................... 13 2.1 五力模型.................................................................................................................... 13 2.2 计划行为理论............................................................................................................ 14 2.3 列联分析法................................................................................................................ 15 2.4 层次分析法................................................................................................................ 16 2.5 熵权法........................................................................................................................ 18 3 行业发展现状研究............................................................................................................. 21 3.1 行业总体发展现状研究............................................................................................ 21 3.2 水电行业发展现状研究............................................................................................ 23 3.3 风电行业发展现状研究............................................................................................ 24 3.4 光电行业发展现状研究............................................................................................ 25 3.5 核电行业发展现状研究............................................................................................ 26 4 行业竞争力研究................................................................................................................. 27 4.1 现有竞争者的竞争研究............................................................................................ 27 4.2 潜在进入者威胁研究................................................................................................ 28 4.3 替代品威胁研究........................................................................................................ 29 4.3.1 火电带来的威胁研究...................................................................................... 29 4.3.2 新型可再生能源发电带来的威胁研究.......................................................... 30 4.4 供应商的议价能力研究............................................................................................ 32 4.5 企业购买者议价能力研究........................................................................................ 34 4.5.1 绿色电力跨省跨区直接交易.......................................................................... 34 4.5.2 分布式绿色电力市场化交易.......................................................................... 36 4.5.3 自愿购买绿色电力证书.................................................................................. 36 4.6 个体购买者议价能力研究........................................................................................ 374 4.6.1 模型建立及问卷调查...................................................................................... 38 4.6.2 初始意愿分析.................................................................................................. 39 4.6.3 影响因素分析.................................................................................................. 40 5 行业竞争力评价研究......................................................................................................... 44 5.1 评价指标选取............................................................................................................ 44 5.1.1 指标选取原则.................................................................................................. 44 5.1.2 指标体系构建.................................................................................................. 45 5.2 层析分析评价模型.................................................................................................... 46 5.2.1 层次结构模型构建.......................................................................................... 46 5.2.2 指标权重求解.................................................................................................. 48 5.3 熵权评价模型............................................................................................................ 51 5.3.1 指标赋值标准构建.......................................................................................... 51 5.3.2 指标赋值及权重求解...................................................................................... 52 5.4 行业竞争力评价模型................................................................................................ 54 6 相关对策研究..................................................................................................................... 57 6.1 提高绿色电力企业竞争力........................................................................................ 57 6.1.1 就地消纳，降低弃电浪费成本...................................................................... 57 6.1.2 侧重发展，降低资源竞争成本...................................................................... 57 6.1.3 与供应商资源互惠，降低供应品成本.......................................................... 58 6.1.4 开发与环保并举，降低治理成本.................................................................. 58 6.2 提高购买者的购买意愿............................................................................................ 58 6.2.1 政府补贴与自愿支付合理配比...................................................................... 59 6.2.2 减少税收，激励购买...................................................................................... 59 6.2.3 简化购买程序.................................................................................................. 60 6.2.4 提高个体购买者对绿色电力的认知程度...................................................... 60 结论.........................................................................................................................................62 致谢.........................................................................................................................................64